Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 22-29 May 2015

Benjamin Van Doren and Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab May 29, 2015

Cedar Waxwing © Ryan Schain

Cedar Waxwing © Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

This period brought light to moderate flights that featured Western Sandpiper, Dunlin, Long-billed Dowitcher, Swainson’s Thrush, and Cedar Waxwing to the West, primarily in the middle of the week and scattered from California to the Rockies and north to Canada, while the East enjoyed moderate to locally heavy early and later week flights that featured Black Skimmer, Common Nighthawk, Black-billed Cuckoo, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Swainson’s Thrush, Cedar Waxwing, and Dickcissel.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to locally heavy flights overspread the region over the weekend, until a low pressure system set the brakes for most flights away from the Great Lakes and New England. In the wake of this frontal passage, primarily light to locally moderate flights were the norm of the rest of the work week, although these flights were not widespread or consistent in their spatial distribution.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cedar Waxwing 41% 27.6
Dickcissel 85% 2.3
Semipalmated Sandpiper 17% 6.2
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 20% 9
Eastern Wood-Pewee 11% 31.2
Black Guillemot 76% 0.6
Black-bellied Plover 18% 3.6
Sanderling 24% 1.9
Black Skimmer 30% 1.3
Least Tern 18% 3.2
Acadian Flycatcher 13% 7.1
Sedge Wren 24% 1.2
Ruddy Turnstone 15% 3.1
Willet 14% 4.2
Grasshopper Sparrow 16% 2.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tennessee Warbler -81% 1
Swainson's Thrush -69% 2.6
Magnolia Warbler -64% 3.9
White-crowned Sparrow -89% 0.2
Blackpoll Warbler -52% 5.9
Northern Waterthrush -58% 2.2
Black-throated Blue Warbler -49% 2.9
Northern Parula -41% 5.6
Least Sandpiper -47% 3.4
Chestnut-sided Warbler -35% 8.3
Palm Warbler -81% 0.3
Nashville Warbler -46% 2.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler -39% 3.4
Lincoln's Sparrow -65% 0.6
Solitary Sandpiper -61% 0.5
Lesser Yellowlegs -57% 0.7
Black-and-white Warbler -25% 7.6
Blackburnian Warbler -31% 3.7
Cape May Warbler -59% 0.4
Least Flycatcher -28% 6.1
American Redstart -24% 21.4
Black-throated Green Warbler -25% 6.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -20% 12.8
White-throated Sparrow -31% 2.7
Short-billed Dowitcher -41% 1.8

American Redstart © Ryan Schain

American Redstart © Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Aside from locally moderate flights early in the period in the western portions of the region, primarily in Texas, this was a typical quiet, late season week.  Isolated moderate movements in Florida on Friday night punctuated the otherwise lackluster light flights to the east of the Mississippi. Strong storms shut down most western movements on Monday and Thursday nights in Texas.

Top Movers

Increasing

None for this week! 🙁

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Redstart -62% 1.3
Dunlin -76% 0.6
Cedar Waxwing -51% 2.7
Spotted Sandpiper -55% 1.6
Semipalmated Sandpiper -50% 1.9
Least Sandpiper -57% 0.8
Swainson's Thrush -80% 0.1
Wilson's Phalarope -80% 0.1
Blackburnian Warbler -77% 0.2
Least Flycatcher -71% 0.2
Whimbrel -62% 0.4
Stilt Sandpiper -67% 0.2
Yellow Warbler -37% 1.3
Blue-winged Teal -45% 1.4
Black-bellied Plover -37% 1.5
Sanderling -32% 2.5
Blackpoll Warbler -65% 0.3
Chestnut-sided Warbler -42% 0.9
Semipalmated Plover -31% 2.3
Willet -32% 3.3
Canada Warbler -46% 0.5
Magnolia Warbler -65% 0.2
Bobolink -67% 0.2
White-rumped Sandpiper -46% 0.6

Common Nighthawk © Benjamin Van Doren

Common Nighthawk © Benjamin Van Doren

Great Plains

Moderate to locally heavy movements passed through the region this week. The northern Plains enjoyed these movements over the weekend, followed by the central and southern Plains on Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights. However, migration activity was certainly disrupted in many areas by significant and intense storms, particularly on Sunday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Nighthawk 46% 10
Dickcissel 27% 18.5
Bobolink 24% 11.9
Marsh Wren 32% 6.9
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 22% 12.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Orange-crowned Warbler -97% 0.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler -88% 1.2
Nashville Warbler -91% 0.5
White-throated Sparrow -91% 0.4
Ovenbird -73% 1.6
Wilson's Warbler -77% 1.3
Swainson's Thrush -56% 10.7
Tennessee Warbler -56% 7.4
Black-and-white Warbler -57% 3.5
Long-billed Dowitcher -99% 0
Blue-headed Vireo -74% 0.9
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -43% 6.2
Pine Siskin -52% 3.3
Red-breasted Nuthatch -72% 0.5
Least Flycatcher -32% 14.5
Spotted Sandpiper -31% 13.1
Least Sandpiper -36% 3

Olive-sided Flycatcher © Benjamin Van Doren

Olive-sided Flycatcher © Benjamin Van Doren

West

Light but widely scattered flights in California, Montana, and New Mexico highlighted the weekend, as other parts of the regions saw little movement. By Tuesday and Wednesday light to locally moderate movements were slightly more widespread, from California through New Mexico and north into the central Rockies. Note that some areas, particularly in southern New Mexico, continued to experience isolated moderate movements, even late in the week. Note that local bat movements may have contributed significantly to some of these New Mexico radar returns early and late in the week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cedar Waxwing 13% 11.2
Swainson's Thrush 9% 11.9
Western Wood-Pewee 7% 22.5
Gray Catbird 8% 4.8
Olive-sided Flycatcher 4% 6.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-necked Phalarope -75% 0.4
Townsend's Warbler -45% 1.7
Long-billed Dowitcher -92% 0
Yellow-rumped Warbler -25% 9.3
Wilson's Phalarope -31% 2.2
Dunlin -99% 0
Cinnamon Teal -21% 5.8
Western Sandpiper -90% 0
Northern Shoveler -19% 4.7
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -26% 2.5
Summer Tanager -23% 1.5
Orange-crowned Warbler -12% 8.7

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