Forecast and Analysis

A (new) NE Canada – Northeast US connection to end the week?

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 07, 2012

Today through Friday has potential to see winds transport waterfowl, gulls, and other late migrants and irruptives into the Northeast and Great Lakes. Additionally, snow cover may force sparrows and open-area species like pipits, longspurs, Snow Buntings, and larks to move from areas where more than 1-2 inches covers the ground. Please make sure to submit all of your sightings to eBird!

Forecast winds for the Northeastern US suggest that we may be in store for another round of late season and irruptive migrants (and perhaps even Arctic avifauna) moving south and west into our region, perhaps most likely in the coastal Northeast and Great Lakes. This may include waterfowl, raptors, gulls, and perhaps some passerines (including some of the species with irruptions already underway including finches, waxwings, and parids). Additionally, the strong Northeasterly winds on the coast may bring typically pelagic species ashore in a number of places, particularly Long Island and Cape Cod. This map shows the forecast winds for Athena, 7 November 2012 (see The Weather Channel for more details about the storm).

An ensemble of models that forecasts the trajectory of an air parcel originating in Newfoundland (coordinates for the black star on the left of the image) also suggests a connection between NE Canada and the Great Lakes and New England in the coming days (7-9 November 2012). This graphic shows the trajectory for an air parcel 500m above the ground from the present through Friday 9 November 2012.