In our last post, we highlighted an area of southerly flow that is forecast for Sunday – Tuesday, 17-19 February 2013, from portions of Texas to the western Appalachians. Below, we provide a short animated clips to show the forecast wind and precipitation for the coming week, highlighting the early week period in the South Central and Southeast US.
As high pressure builds into Florida on Sunday night, 17 February, southerly winds prevail from over the western Gulf of Mexico north to the Canadian border. We expect that some early migrants including passerines and waterfowl will take advantage of these conditions. However, migration will presumably appear light and scattered on radars in areas from Texas north to the border (it is only February after all). As the high pressure center shifts East, so do the favorable conditions for early migrants. By Tuesday these conditions reach portions of the Southeast Atlantic coast. Early season passerine migrants and waterfowl are the likely source of any migration pulses – please report all of your sightings and groud-truthing to eBird.org! By the end of the week next week, around 21-22 February, another low pressure system works toward the Atlantic coast, creating anew another suite of favorable conditions for some early migrants to take flight. Note, conditions may also be favorable for some early raptor movements in portions of the southern Great Plains and Mississippi River valley, so skywatchers should stay vigilant (and be patient, because of the early date . . .).