Cyclones

Hurricane Sandy: 27 October 8AM Update

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 27, 2012

As expected, the forecast track for Sandy has changed since the last update. For more details about the potential “windfall” from Sandy’s arrival and strategies for birding , please visit the eBird site. As of 8AM EDT on 27 October, NHC plots first landfall in the Lewes, DE and Cape May, NJ area in the late night of 29 October or the very early morning of 30 October. The storm moves inland, rather quickly, moving west and then north into central Pennsylvania by Wednesday and then into Lake Ontario as of Thursday morning. This track suggests that many birds that are displaced and entrained in the storm will be departing via Delaware Bay on Tuesday throughout the day. It also suggests that inland bodies of water, river valleys, and probably open fields will attract and hold many storm-driven birds from Central and Eastern Pennsylvania north through the Finger Lakes to the Lake Ontario shore. Given less than 48 hours over land between landfall and arrival in the Great Lakes, some entrained birds may be deposited in Lake Ontario. If this happens, the presence of hurricane waifs in Lake Ontario could last for several days or even weeks after the passage of the storm. However, most birds that are deposited inland will presumably return quickly to the ocean, or try to do so. Later on Tuesday, Wednesday, and early Thursday, birders should watch ridge lines and river valleys in the central New York, central and eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey for birds returning south and east toward the ocean. Additionally, coast lines from the mid-Atlantic north through Long Island will presumably see considerable displacement of local and regional near shore and offshore species from Tuesday through Thursday. Inlets, open areas at the immediate coast including parking areas, and small coastal bodies of water will be worth checking. Additionally, sky watchers should watch the sky for aerialists that may be transported with this system, including swift, swallows, and martins. These species, if present, may occur from Tuesday through the remainder of the week.¬†Above all, for all of the above forecast discussion, safety is the top priority. ¬†Exercise extreme caution, as Sandy is a dangerous storm. Safety is always first!

Forecast track, 8AM EDT, 27 October 2012

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