Hurricane Sandy Update 11PM 27 October 2012

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 28, 2012

The forecast track for Hurricane Sandy has changed, again. Now, the eye is forecast to move farther north, coming ashore at first landfall somewhere north of Cape May, NJ and moving rapidly across the state into central Pennsylvania by Tuesday night, Lake Ontario by Wednesday night, then into Canada by Thursday night. It appears that a larger swath of the New Jersey and New York coast lines will see effects from the storm, suggesting that both birds and dangerous conditions may be more widespread in these areas than previously forecast. The potential for displaced birds is still high all along the New Jersey and New York coasts, given the projected landfall. This holds true for entrained species like petrels, tropicbirds, and other tropical and pelagic species as well. Furthermore, inland rivers and lakes, particularly the Delaware Bay drainage, seem likely to get deposits of birds as the system moves rapidly from the central NJ coast into the Great Lakes in less than 48 hours. Birders from central NJ through eastern Pennsylvania and the Finger Lakes of NY and Lake Ontario shore should watch for displaced birds on all water bodies and open areas. Birders outside of the forecast track may experience some of the displacement from the storm, perhaps as far north as Cape Cod. However, the present track appears to suggest a DelMarVa, central NJ and NY coastal event, followed by hurricane-driven birds inland from Maryland north to central NY and on perhaps into Ontario. As said with previous forecasts, safety is the first priority. Exercise extreme caution when birding in, near, and around this storm (and any storm like this). Dangerous conditions will prevail across many areas, including heavy rain, strong winds, and large storm surges. Please be smart and safe!

27 October, 11PM EDT Forecast track