New York and Philadelphia Migration Forecast: 25 October – 2 November 2012

The coming week will have an interesting array of weather complemented by an interesting array of birds. The forecast will change many times, presumably, so please check for regular updates to this portion of the forecast page. Light winds may continue to facilitate locally moderate to heavy movements of birds, despite easterly flow and the possibility of rain in some places. These movements, if they occur, will be dominated by sparrows, Hermit Thrush, kinglets, Northern Flicker, American Robins, and other later season passerines. Additionally, movements of waterfowl will becoming increasingly apparent, as numbers of Brant, Canada Goose, American Wigeon, Northern Pintail, Green-winged Teal and coastal species appear in larger numbers. Through the weekend, conditions will become increasingly messy, as rain and strengthening easterly winds associated with the approach of Hurricane Sandy move into the area. Migration will shut down as the system approaches and arrives. However, there is real potential for far flung visitors to be displaced by and entrained in the storm; birders should watch the track of this system very closely. Presently, Sandy is slated to make landfall in central NJ and move NW into the Delaware River System. If this happens, large numbers of near shore species and southern coastal species will appear on New Jersey beaches and flood plain bodies of water. Some tropical and pelagic species will appear as well, particularly close to shore. All bodies of water from the immediate coast of central NJ north and west through the Delaware River and Water Gap should be checked for storm-driven birds. Above all, safety is the top priority when birding before, during, and after storms. This system in particular may have strong winds, heavy rains, and intense flooring and storm surge, so please exercise extreme caution. After the passage of the system, as westerly and northerly winds occur, large numbers of passerines may move; if this happens, expect moderate to heavy movements across the region in the wake of the passage of Sandy.