Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 13-20 March 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Mar 20, 2015

Eastern Phoebe, photographed by Ian Davies

Eastern Phoebe, © Ian Davies

Continental Summary

Light to moderate migration, primarily in California and the Desert Southwest early in the period, brought increasing numbers of Bell’s Vireo, Lucy’s Warbler, Yellow Warbler, and Bullock’s Oriole to the West, while slightly more extensive light to moderate movements on Sunday and Monday nights, including Blue-winged Teal, Eastern Phoebe, Blue-headed Vireo, Tree Swallow, and Pine Warbler among other migrants, highlighted the period in the East.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

After a damp start to the period, portions of the region, notably from the central Mississippi Valley east to the Appalachians, saw light to moderate movements on Sunday night. These movements expanded in slightly more favorable conditions on Monday night, extending across the Appalachians to DelMarVa. But Tuesday night saw the return of unfavorable conditions to the region that persisted through the end of the period, with marginal winds and precipitation shutting down migration in many areas or limiting movements to minimal to light levels (for example in Virginia on Wednesday night or portions of Pennsylvania and New Jersey on Thursday night).

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tree Swallow 114% 5.2
Eastern Phoebe 253% 3.5
Green-winged Teal 67% 8.0
Red-winged Blackbird 34% 40.4
Wood Duck 48% 10.0
Common Grackle 37% 28.4
Rusty Blackbird 86% 3.3
Turkey Vulture 43% 20.7
Sandhill Crane 34% 6.4
Blue-winged Teal 101% 2.0
American Robin 30% 42.8
American Woodcock 70% 3.4
Pied-billed Grebe 88% 3.4
Osprey 79% 2.2
Ring-necked Duck 31% 15.5
Eastern Meadowlark 57% 3.0
Pine Warbler 143% 1.3
Brown-headed Cowbird 41% 8.2
Song Sparrow 24% 29.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-winged Scoter -45% 1.9
Long-tailed Duck -38% 1.8
Rough-legged Hawk -42% 1.0
Common Goldeneye -27% 9.3
Snow Bunting -45% 0.4
Red-necked Grebe -41% 0.8
Greater Scaup -26% 5.1
Common Redpoll -26% 1.4

Common Tern, photographed by Benjamin Van Doren

Common Tern © Benjamin Van Doren

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Scattered light to moderate movements were the norm for the first half of the period, reaching their greatest extents and intensities by Monday night. Less favorable conditions followed, and a low pressure system moving through the region kept movements locally light to moderate through most of the remainder of the period. The period ended with a return to more extensive movements from Texas to Florida, including some migrants arriving from Cuba.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck 39% 6.0
Blue-headed Vireo 43% 4.6
Northern Parula 24% 11.4
Black-necked Stilt 32% 4.0
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 46% 2.2
American Golden-Plover 113% 0.8
Black-and-white Warbler 23% 5.6
Louisiana Waterthrush 56% 1.2
Brown-headed Cowbird 17% 12.5
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 87% 0.8
Barn Swallow 23% 4.3
Common Tern 196% 0.4
Cedar Waxwing 11% 11.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Pintail -51% 1.0
Redhead -38% 3.4
Ring-necked Duck -31% 6.5
American Pipit -43% 1.2
Hooded Merganser -24% 2.7
Ring-billed Gull -16% 14.7
Rusty Blackbird -33% 1.0
American Robin -12% 20.8

Franklin's Gull, photographed by Benjamin Van Doren

Franklin’s Gull © Benjamin Van Doren

Great Plains

Marginal and unfavorable conditions for migration dominated the region this period. Although migrants clearly moved into the region, most movements were locally light to moderate movements and widely scattered across the region, occurring in the Dakotas on Saturday night and the central and southern Plains on Sunday and Monday nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-winged Teal 248% 8.2
Common Grackle 57% 14.4
Eastern Meadowlark 24% 10.9
Eastern Phoebe 164% 8.9
Fish Crow 51% 2.1
Franklin's Gull 93% 2.5
Green-winged Teal 64% 11.9
Killdeer 21% 29.1
Northern Shoveler 64% 13.6
Red-winged Blackbird 11% 29.0
Ruddy Duck 130% 7.2
Wood Duck 51% 5.0

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -51% 1.2
Greater White-fronted Goose -49% 4.8
Cackling Goose -29% 5.5
Common Merganser -42% 5.7
Common Goldeneye -29% 6.9
American Tree Sparrow -25% 9.1
Snow Goose -36% 9.8

Wilson's Warbler

Wilson’s Warbler © Ian Davies

West

California and the Desert Southwest experienced light to moderate movements from last weekend into the beginning of the work week. Most of the remainder of the region experienced minimal to light movements for the duration of the period. Note, however, that portions of the Pacific Northwest experienced light movements, noticeably on Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lucy's Warbler 371% 3.2
Bell's Vireo 636% 2.2
Hooded Oriole 121% 2.4
Barn Swallow 65% 3.5
Broad-billed Hummingbird 83% 2.7
Wilson's Warbler 112% 1.9
Band-tailed Pigeon 41% 5.6
Bullock's Oriole 265% 1.3
Violet-green Swallow 46% 4.7
Yellow Warbler 234% 1.2
Black-chinned Hummingbird 108% 1.3
Brown-headed Cowbird 46% 2.6
Chipping Sparrow 32% 4.1
Rufous Hummingbird 34% 3.5
House Wren 25% 5.6
Orange-crowned Warbler 20% 8.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tundra Swan -24% 1.2
Ferruginous Hawk -47% 0.4
Glaucous-winged Gull -20% 3.0
Varied Thrush -11% 6.3

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