Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 13-20 October 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 21, 2017

Bufflehead. Alvan Buckley/Macaulay Library. eBird S39999515.

Continental Summary

Locally moderate flights occurred in the West during this period and featured Bufflehead, Lesser Scaup, Dunlin, Herring Gull, Mew Gull, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Hermit Thrush, and American Pipit, while a significant pulse of moderate to very heavy flights occurred in the East and featured Brant, Bufflehead, Surf Scoter, American Coot, Bonaparte’s Gull, Hermit Thrush, Lapland Longspur, American Tree Sparrow, White-throated Sparrow, and Swamp Sparrow.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Locally moderate to heavy flights were scattered across the Upper Midwest to begin the period; little movement was apparent east of the Appalachians. A significant cold front arrive and began to push through the region on Saturday night and Sunday, bringing widespread moderate to very heavy flights to the west of the Appalachians on Sunday night and then similarly intense flights to the east of the Appalachians on Monday night. The days following the frontal passage saw typically diminished intensity and extent of movements, as warmer and southerly flow returned with building high pressure. These flights were primarily light to moderate, occurring primarily west of the Appalachians.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco 155% 18.2
Hermit Thrush 127% 10
White-throated Sparrow 59% 35.3
Brant 255% 2.3
Golden-crowned Kinglet 57% 20.6
Fox Sparrow 180% 2.5
American Tree Sparrow 488% 1.5
Pine Siskin 109% 3.4
Ruddy Duck 81% 4.7
Bufflehead 734% 1.1
Surf Scoter 122% 2.7
Yellow-rumped Warbler 36% 37.6
American Coot 63% 5.4
Bonaparte's Gull 104% 2.8
Dunlin 106% 2.7
White-crowned Sparrow 36% 11.7
Red-tailed Hawk 26% 16.8
Winter Wren 53% 5.2
Pied-billed Grebe 34% 8.8
Ring-necked Duck 79% 2.1
Song Sparrow 16% 40.4
Swamp Sparrow 23% 17.2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 18% 26.1
Lesser Scaup 99% 1.3
Common Loon 41% 4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chimney Swift -97% 0.3
Black-throated Green Warbler -95% 0.3
Gray Catbird -68% 9.3
Magnolia Warbler -96% 0.2
Common Yellowthroat -71% 4.1
Indigo Bunting -82% 0.9
Swainson's Thrush -84% 0.7
House Wren -65% 3
American Redstart -86% 0.7
Red-eyed Vireo -90% 0.4
Tennessee Warbler -82% 0.8
Scarlet Tanager -99% 0
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -97% 0.1
Black-and-white Warbler -92% 0.3
Eastern Wood-Pewee -92% 0.3
Nashville Warbler -67% 1.5
Eastern Phoebe -33% 17.1
Great Egret -35% 7.2
Blackpoll Warbler -74% 0.7
Gray-cheeked Thrush -91% 0.1
Northern Flicker -22% 25.5
Killdeer -26% 9.6
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -79% 0.5
Wood Duck -24% 9.3
Blue-winged Teal -49% 1.8

Golden-crowned Kinglet. Michael McCloy/Macaulay Library. eBird S32150176.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Locally moderate and heavy flights were scattered across the region to begin the period. But it was the passage of a cold front on Sunday night that significantly expanded the extent and enhanced the intensity of the flights. Moderate to heavy flights became widespread west of the Mississippi River on Sunday night, intensifying in areas east of the Mississippi River on Monday to include heavy and very heavy flights in Florida and the southern Appalachians and coastal plains. With the passage of the system, and the arrival of more southerly flow on Tuesday, flight intensities dropped significantly in most areas as did their extents for the remainder of the period. Locally moderate to heavy flights continued in Florida.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-rumped Warbler 664% 13.6
White-throated Sparrow 14998% 4.1
Swamp Sparrow 1110% 4.8
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 379% 9
Savannah Sparrow 389% 4.3
Golden-crowned Kinglet 6035% 3.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 167% 15.1
House Wren 132% 14
Orange-crowned Warbler 208% 4.5
Palm Warbler 89% 22.8
Eastern Meadowlark 132% 5.5
Hermit Thrush 591% 1.7
Winter Wren 632% 1.6
Eastern Phoebe 53% 32.6
Song Sparrow 94% 8.1
Gadwall 242% 2
Lincoln's Sparrow 183% 2.6
Tree Swallow 104% 4.7
White-crowned Sparrow 290% 1.5
Dunlin 295% 1.4
Blue-headed Vireo 109% 3.5
Common Grackle 38% 14.1
Double-crested Cormorant 26% 15.2
Brown Creeper 777% 0.4
American Coot 58% 5.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chimney Swift -89% 1.2
Yellow Warbler -92% 0.3
Swainson's Thrush -67% 2.4
Summer Tanager -71% 1.8
Scarlet Tanager -77% 1.1
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -62% 5.5
Red-eyed Vireo -58% 4.7
Eastern Wood-Pewee -58% 3.7
Wood Thrush -67% 0.9
Gray-cheeked Thrush -79% 0.4
Magnolia Warbler -49% 5.4
Wilson's Warbler -65% 0.9
Peregrine Falcon -52% 2.1
Chestnut-sided Warbler -48% 2.4
American Redstart -30% 12.9
Philadelphia Vireo -66% 0.5
Black-chinned Hummingbird -95% 0
Tennessee Warbler -37% 4
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron -58% 0.8
White-eyed Vireo -23% 13
Barn Swallow -35% 4.1
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -31% 3.7
Dickcissel -68% 0.3
Warbling Vireo -97% 0

Rough-legged Hawk. Alex Lamoreaux/Macaulay Library. eBird S39999931.

Great Plains

Scattered moderate to heavy flights dominated the central and southern Plains airspace to begin the period. These flights continued, though significantly reduced in distribution and intensity, on Sunday night. But with high pressure and return flow in place on Monday and Tuesday, movements became significantly more localized and light. Other than a pulse of moderate flights in the central Plains on Wednesday night, these conditions and their associated low intensity and local flights continued through the remainder of the period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Gadwall 226% 16.6
Dark-eyed Junco 156% 24.7
American Tree Sparrow 905% 4
Song Sparrow 128% 17.4
White-throated Sparrow 96% 17.9
Golden-crowned Kinglet 312% 3.7
Bufflehead 234% 4.2
Ring-necked Duck 170% 5.2
White-crowned Sparrow 87% 15.1
Harris's Sparrow 88% 10.7
Greater White-fronted Goose 172% 4.4
Mallard 51% 25.4
American Wigeon 92% 7.8
Hermit Thrush 221% 3.4
Redhead 84% 6.2
Lapland Longspur 503% 1.6
Cackling Goose 238% 1.8
Pied-billed Grebe 39% 21.1
Rough-legged Hawk 1220% 1.1
Sandhill Crane 120% 4.6
Savannah Sparrow 41% 12.7
Horned Grebe 201% 1.8
Horned Lark 56% 7.5
Field Sparrow 68% 6.5
Purple Finch 248% 1.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Nashville Warbler -87% 1.5
Gray Catbird -97% 0.2
Common Yellowthroat -99% 0.1
Swainson's Hawk -100% 0
House Wren -85% 1.4
Barn Swallow -88% 1.1
Clay-colored Sparrow -85% 0.8
Brown Thrasher -85% 0.9
Eastern Phoebe -56% 6.8
Turkey Vulture -45% 16.8
Orange-crowned Warbler -52% 8.6
Blue-winged Teal -58% 4
Great Egret -53% 5.4
Tree Swallow -93% 0.1
Snowy Egret -91% 0.2
Indigo Bunting -74% 1
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -59% 3
Mourning Dove -33% 22.1
Chimney Swift -110% -0.8
Osprey -42% 4.7
Sora -64% 0.9
Long-billed Dowitcher -58% 1.2
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -101% 0
Summer Tanager -114% -0.3
Pectoral Sandpiper -82% 0.2

Dunlin. Steve Mlodinow/Macaulay Library. eBird S11892114.

West

Light to moderate flights occurred around the fringes of the region to kickoff the period, from the Pacific Northwest south along the Pacific Coast and then east along the Mexican border to Texas. These flights were most intense on Saturday night, including some locally heavy flights in the southern Rockies. Beginning Monday, many of these areas saw noticeably less intense movements, and generally local very light flights across the remainder of the region. Some exceptions occurred in the Central Valley and southern Rockies, where slightly more intense flights continues through the end of the period. Note that on Thursday, areas that had experienced the most intense flights of the week saw precipitation, effectively shutting down migration.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dunlin 202% 2.6
Bufflehead 220% 2.5
Western Grebe 51% 9.7
Surf Scoter 56% 3.8
Common Loon 50% 3.6
Hermit Thrush 39% 9.5
Eared Grebe 39% 5.6
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 23% 22.3
Lesser Scaup 59% 2.3
Horned Grebe 46% 3.4
Glaucous-winged Gull 31% 5
Black Turnstone 50% 1.9
American Wigeon 16% 11.3
Herring Gull 45% 2.2
Mew Gull 33% 2.9
Bald Eagle 22% 5.1
Ruddy Duck 16% 8.1
Cackling Goose 25% 4
Ring-necked Duck 19% 5.9
Whimbrel 42% 1.5
Willet 16% 3.1
American Pipit 13% 6.3
Mountain Chickadee 8% 8.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wilson's Warbler -93% 0.4
Yellow Warbler -85% 1.1
Western Tanager -90% 0.3
Turkey Vulture -44% 9.9
Orange-crowned Warbler -45% 7.4
Pacific-slope Flycatcher -93% 0.1
Barn Swallow -71% 1.6
Black-throated Gray Warbler -58% 2
Chipping Sparrow -43% 3.8
Warbling Vireo -83% 0.4
Broad-tailed Hummingbird -97% 0
Western Wood-Pewee -93% 0.1
Greater White-fronted Goose -48% 1.4
Common Yellowthroat -26% 6.4
Hutton's Vireo -30% 3.2
Savannah Sparrow -18% 8.7
House Wren -22% 6
Vaux's Swift -73% 0.2
Caspian Tern -53% 0.7
Violet-green Swallow -43% 0.8
Elegant Tern -36% 0.9
Greater Yellowlegs -15% 5.3
Pine Siskin -13% 8.6
Red-breasted Sapsucker -20% 1.8

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY