Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 15-22 April 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 22, 2016

Ruby-throated Hummingbird. Denise Hargrove/Macaulay Library. 19 Apr 2016. eBird S29084478

Ruby-throated Hummingbird. Denise Hargrove/Macaulay Library. 19 Apr 2016. eBird S29084478

Continental Summary

Light and moderate flights featuring White-faced Ibis, Semipalmated Plover, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Red-faced Warbler, and Western Tanager were frequent in many areas of the West, while the East saw moderate and locally heavy flights featuring Spotted Sandpiper, Chimney Swift, Warbling Vireo, Red-eyed Vireo, Blackpoll Warbler, Cape May Warbler, and Prairie Warbler in the southerly flow ahead of a frontal boundary.

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Upper Midwest and Northeast

Light to moderate flights occurred in many areas over the first half of the week. However, a passing low pressure center and precipitation associated with it and another upper level disturbance quieted the migration scene by Tuesday night. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary brought more favorable conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, with moderate and locally heavy flights in many areas east of the Ohio River Valley.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
House Wren 526% 6.6
Chimney Swift 1120% 3.2
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 89% 18.9
Palm Warbler 116% 10.2
Red-eyed Vireo 4067% 1.1
Common Yellowthroat 249% 2.7
Blue-headed Vireo 279% 3.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler 74% 23.7
Eastern Kingbird 814% 1.2
Northern Parula 98% 5.3
Chipping Sparrow 55% 32.7
Broad-winged Hawk 120% 3.4
Spotted Sandpiper 258% 2.1
Prothonotary Warbler 198% 1.7
Wood Thrush 2208% 1
White-throated Sparrow 46% 35.2
White-eyed Vireo 131% 2.9
Prairie Warbler 199% 1.7
Indigo Bunting 6405% 0.5
Warbling Vireo 460% 1
Ovenbird 240% 1.6
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 1120% 1
Blue-winged Warbler 1968% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Fox Sparrow -84% 0.8
Golden-crowned Kinglet -62% 4.2
Horned Grebe -66% 1.4
Dark-eyed Junco -47% 15.6
American Tree Sparrow -52% 2.8
Pied-billed Grebe -44% 5.9
Ring-necked Duck -43% 4.3
Bufflehead -41% 6.8
Common Merganser -44% 3.2
Red-breasted Merganser -42% 3.5
Brown Creeper -42% 4.7
Bonaparte's Gull -44% 2.6
Hooded Merganser -40% 3.3
Lesser Scaup -42% 2.6
Common Loon -32% 4.8
Ruddy Duck -43% 2.8
Northern Shoveler -33% 5.3
Common Goldeneye -53% 0.7
Green-winged Teal -30% 5.3
American Wigeon -39% 1.6
Gadwall -34% 3
Northern Gannet -42% 0.5
Canvasback -49% 0.3
Redhead -38% 1.4
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -28% 7.2

Dickcissel. Tatiana Botero J/Macaulay Library. 7 Apr 2016. eBird S28812702

Dickcissel. Tatiana Botero J/Macaulay Library. 7 Apr 2016. eBird S28812702

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to locally heavy flights were scattered across the region for the weekend and first half of the workweek. Then, after soaking and intense rain associated with a very slow moving front continued east, a large exodus of moderate to heavy intensity occurred on Tuesday night. Similarly extensive albeit less intense movements occurred the following nights, with particularly heavy flights in portions of Texas, Florida, and parts of the Carolinas.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blackpoll Warbler 386% 7.6
Cape May Warbler 221% 6.2
Black-throated Blue Warbler 165% 4.8
Dickcissel 407% 2.5
Yellow Warbler 134% 3.6
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 72% 8.2
Gray-cheeked Thrush 180% 1.8
Eastern Wood-Pewee 76% 4.1
Baltimore Oriole 47% 7.1
Ovenbird 59% 7.2
Western Kingbird 91% 2.8
Bobolink 231% 0.8
Common Nighthawk 46% 3.5
Veery 77% 1.6
Yellow-breasted Chat 56% 3.4
Indigo Bunting 25% 17
Yellow-headed Blackbird 74% 1.9
Gray Kingbird 132% 1.3
Chestnut-sided Warbler 43% 2.2
White-rumped Sandpiper 3528% 0.4
American Redstart 26% 6.7
Blackburnian Warbler 44% 2.2
Magnolia Warbler 106% 1.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Golden-Plover -64% 0.7
Hermit Thrush -54% 1.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -32% 9.5
Green-winged Teal -69% 0.4
Dark-eyed Junco -67% 0.5
Swamp Sparrow -34% 3
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -64% 0.5
Redhead -46% 1.1
Greater Yellowlegs -27% 4.2
Tree Swallow -25% 8.1
Pied-billed Grebe -24% 6.7
Blue-winged Teal -21% 12
Gadwall -44% 1
American Coot -18% 10.1
Belted Kingfisher -22% 6.5
Northern Shoveler -24% 2.8
Double-crested Cormorant -16% 14.7
Northern Harrier -29% 1.9
Bufflehead -88% 0.1
Lesser Scaup -46% 0.7
Osprey -16% 14.2
Turkey Vulture -12% 25.3
Wilson's Snipe -35% 1.1
Red-breasted Merganser -31% 1.3
Yellow-rumped Warbler -15% 16

Solitary Sandpiper. Dale Trexel/Macaulay Library. 20 Apr 2016. eBird S29096022.

Solitary Sandpiper. Dale Trexel/Macaulay Library. 20 Apr 2016. eBird S29096022.

Great Plains

A slow moving frontal boundary crossing the region, and its unfavorable winds and precipitation, generally kept the migration scene quiet until Tuesday night, other than locally light flights where conditions were marginally more favorable for migration. Moderate flights resumed in the northern Plains on Tuesday night, in slightly more favorable migration conditions. Similarly, Wednesday night saw more extensive moderate flights, including in the northern and southern Plains states, as low pressure continued to move farther out of the region. However, upon the low’s departure from the region, a wave of cooler air kept movements light other than highly localized moderate flights along the Canadian border and in Oklahoma.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Spotted Sandpiper 159% 9.3
Chimney Swift 623% 4.4
Warbling Vireo 625% 3.6
Orange-crowned Warbler 121% 7.9
Eastern Kingbird 265% 4
White-throated Sparrow 71% 18.9
Swainson's Thrush 1273% 2
House Wren 97% 5.4
Forster's Tern 194% 4.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler 53% 33
Solitary Sandpiper 159% 3.2
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 55% 11
Lark Sparrow 56% 8.4
Barn Swallow 43% 17.5
Red-eyed Vireo 230% 1.5
Semipalmated Plover 75% 2.8
Hermit Thrush 85% 3.4
Yellow-throated Vireo 3032% 1
Brown Thrasher 31% 17.2
Cliff Swallow 39% 8.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -42% 7.2
Baird's Sandpiper -48% 4.5
Green-winged Teal -35% 8.1
Snowy Plover -69% 0.5
Greater Yellowlegs -37% 7.4
Snow Goose -64% 0.7
Northern Shoveler -28% 21.5
Least Sandpiper -44% 2.4
Northern Harrier -24% 6
Greater White-fronted Goose -88% 0.1
American Golden-Plover -47% 1
American Wigeon -23% 6.7
Fox Sparrow -32% 2
Sharp-shinned Hawk -38% 1.2
Horned Lark -20% 8.4
American Tree Sparrow -63% 0.6
Turkey Vulture -14% 30.2
Great Blue Heron -17% 22.8
Gadwall -13% 14.4
Red-tailed Hawk -9% 18.9
Pectoral Sandpiper -32% 3.3
Common Goldeneye -62% 0.5
Surf Scoter -64% 0.1
Eared Grebe -16% 3.1

Red-faced Warbler. William Higgins/Macaulay Library. 18 Apr 2016. eBird S29048379.

Red-faced Warbler. William Higgins/Macaulay Library. 18 Apr 2016. eBird S29048379.

West

Light and moderate flights were the norm for many areas west of the Rockies and in the Desert Southwest for the period. The Pacific Coast saw action for many nights early in the period, including moderate and locally heavy flights in California on the weekend. Some scattered precipitation, particularly in eastern and northern mountainous regions, kept movements light where it fell. The most extensive movements of the period were Wednesday and Thursday nights, when light to moderate flights occurred from California east through the central Rockies.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Western Tanager 163% 2.4
Brown-headed Cowbird 52% 11
Semipalmated Plover 80% 2.9
Summer Tanager 121% 1.6
Wilson's Warbler 41% 8.9
Western Sandpiper 46% 4.8
American Avocet 34% 8.4
White-faced Ibis 40% 4.4
Least Sandpiper 32% 6.5
Western Kingbird 37% 7.8
Spotted Sandpiper 49% 2.8
Chipping Sparrow 30% 7.1
Lazuli Bunting 57% 2
Black-headed Grosbeak 31% 6.9
American Goldfinch 28% 11.9
Western Wood-Pewee 172% 0.7
Purple Martin 74% 1.3
Black-crowned Night-Heron 33% 4.3
Olive-sided Flycatcher 295% 0.5
Violet-green Swallow 21% 14.4
Red-faced Warbler 799% 0.4
Barn Swallow 19% 14
Solitary Sandpiper 106% 0.9
Lark Sparrow 32% 3.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Townsend's Solitaire -24% 1.3
Varied Thrush -51% 0.4
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher -35% 0.9
Lincoln's Sparrow -17% 3.4
White-crowned Sparrow -13% 23.2
Common Goldeneye -23% 2.7
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -16% 6.3
Golden-crowned Sparrow -12% 8.2
Greater Scaup -20% 1.4
Fox Sparrow -25% 1.1
Ring-necked Duck -9% 7.4
Rough-legged Hawk -39% 0.2
Broad-billed Hummingbird -15% 1.6
American Wigeon -8% 9.7
Williamson's Sapsucker -34% 0.3
Northern Harrier -8% 6.5

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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