Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 16-23 September 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 23, 2016

Rusty Blackbird. Lisa Cancade Hackett/Macaulay Library. eBird S31641571

Rusty Blackbird. Lisa Cancade Hackett/Macaulay Library. eBird S31641571

Continental Summary

Moderate to heavy movements were the norm for the East this period, featuring Sharp-shinned Hawk, Merlin, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Swainson’s Thrush, Ruby-crownd Kinglet, Rusty Blackbird, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Harris’s Sparrow, and Nelson’s Sparrow, while the West experienced moderate movements primarily early in the forecast period that featured Cackling Goose, Greater White-fronted Goose, Hooded Merganser, Dunlin, Herring Gull, Varied Thrush, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Yellow-rumped Warbler, and Golden-crowned Sparrow.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to heavy movements kicked off the period in the Midwest, while the remainder of the region was mostly quiet. But Monday night saw more widespread moderate flights as more favorable conditions for migration spread across the region. This intensity of movement continued, but became increasingly restricted to the Appalachians and Atlantic Coast by Wednesday night as a significant disturbance moved through the Upper Midwest. With unsettled weather still spread across the region, the period ended with a similar spread variety of migration intensities, the highest of which were in the Upper Midwest and mid Atlantic states.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-rumped Warbler 110% 10
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 108% 3.4
Blue-headed Vireo 66% 3.9
White-throated Sparrow 53% 5.6
Lincoln's Sparrow 65% 3.1
Palm Warbler 48% 10.7
Swamp Sparrow 47% 4.6
American Pipit 71% 1.8
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 51% 3.3
White-crowned Sparrow 245% 0.6
Eastern Phoebe 20% 24.1
Gray-cheeked Thrush 41% 2.4
Savannah Sparrow 34% 4
Rusty Blackbird 195% 0.4
Blackpoll Warbler 23% 7.4
Ruddy Duck 90% 0.8
Sora 84% 0.8
Lapland Longspur 331% 0.2
Long-billed Dowitcher 78% 0.7
Parasitic Jaeger 77% 0.7
Eastern Bluebird 14% 12.3
Northern Flicker 12% 34
Brown Thrasher 20% 7.3
Song Sparrow 14% 26.2
Nelson's Sparrow 168% 0.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Warbling Vireo -65% 2.1
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -64% 1.4
Great Crested Flycatcher -65% 1.1
Barn Swallow -61% 2
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -35% 12.7
Blue-winged Warbler -69% 0.3
Forster's Tern -44% 2.1
Black Tern -79% 0.1
Chestnut-sided Warbler -34% 4.2
Eastern Wood-Pewee -23% 11.8
Black Skimmer -70% 0.2
Canada Warbler -59% 0.4
Common Tern -43% 1.4
Semipalmated Sandpiper -37% 2.9
Yellow-throated Vireo -34% 2.6
Semipalmated Plover -33% 3.7
Least Sandpiper -28% 5.6
Eastern Kingbird -69% 0.4
Red-necked Phalarope -85% 0
Sanderling -31% 2.7
Veery -40% 1.1
Baltimore Oriole -50% 1
Least Flycatcher -36% 1.6
Green Heron -23% 5.8

Gray-cheeked Thrush. Marion Miller/Macaulay Library. eBird S31642811

Gray-cheeked Thrush. Marion Miller/Macaulay Library. eBird S31642811

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Increasing but still scattered light to moderate flights started the period. But with the arrival of more favorable migration conditions on Sunday and Monday nights, more intense movements took flight including heavy to very heavy movements between the Mississippi River Valley and the southern Appalachians. Following these large movements intensities waned, despite maintaining their more regional extents, for the remainder of the work week. Generally, the southern Appalachians continued to be the most active areas to end the period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 307% 5.4
Palm Warbler 184% 5.1
Swainson's Thrush 109% 7.1
Gray-cheeked Thrush 210% 1.7
Magnolia Warbler 41% 8.7
Common Yellowthroat 30% 13.5
Gray Catbird 35% 11.3
Philadelphia Vireo 164% 1.2
Tennessee Warbler 44% 5.2
Wood Thrush 81% 2.9
Seaside Sparrow 144% 0.8
Song Sparrow 42% 4.3
American Redstart 19% 17
Merlin 49% 2
Scarlet Tanager 29% 5
Blue-headed Vireo 48% 1.9
Bay-breasted Warbler 71% 0.8
Brown Thrasher 17% 17.9
Northern Flicker 19% 7.8
Sharp-shinned Hawk 46% 1.7
Red-breasted Nuthatch 37% 1.4
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 66% 0.5
Eastern Bluebird 13% 17.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Nighthawk -62% 1.1
Black Tern -72% 0.4
Eastern Kingbird -48% 3.4
Baltimore Oriole -42% 3.8
Great Crested Flycatcher -32% 4.5
Olive-sided Flycatcher -64% 0.4
Solitary Sandpiper -51% 0.9
Pectoral Sandpiper -41% 1.6
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -76% 0.1
Semipalmated Sandpiper -40% 1.6
Barn Swallow -31% 7.1
American Golden-Plover -97% 0
Purple Martin -52% 0.8
White-winged Dove -22% 9
Lesser Black-backed Gull -48% 0.6
Least Sandpiper -21% 5.8
Caspian Tern -29% 2.3
Prothonotary Warbler -37% 1.4
American Avocet -41% 1
Spotted Sandpiper -25% 3.8
Kentucky Warbler -37% 0.9
Lesser Yellowlegs -29% 2.2
Black-necked Stilt -33% 1.9
Mississippi Kite -46% 0.8

Harris's Sparrow. John Corden/Macaulay Library. eBird S31583192

Harris’s Sparrow. John Corden/Macaulay Library. eBird S31583192

Great Plains

A moderate to heavy flight night on Friday and a locally heavy northern Plains flight onSunday were the highlights of the weekend. Locally moderate to heavy flights punctuated the work week, but scattered precipitation that was party to an unsettled atmospheric scene kept movements from reaching regional or even sub-regional extents.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Horned Grebe 12281% 1.4
American Wigeon 150% 4.9
American Golden-Plover -12141% 1.3
Northern Mockingbird 155% 13.5
Chimney Swift 86% 16.5
American White Pelican 45% 23.6
Northern Pintail 79% 5.1
Western Grebe 71% 3.5
Double-crested Cormorant 35% 23.7
Northern Harrier 47% 8
White-crowned Sparrow 63% 2.5
Northern Shoveler 38% 11.2
Ring-necked Pheasant 56% 5
Dark-eyed Junco 70% 2.5
American Kestrel 37% 14.2
Ruddy Duck 42% 5
Great Egret 21% 26.8
Harris's Sparrow 141% 0.8
Cassin's Kingbird 1568% 0.5
Common Loon 131% 1.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Great Crested Flycatcher -98% 0.1
Warbling Vireo -67% 2.7
Eastern Wood-Pewee -66% 3.1
Mississippi Kite -79% 1.1
Swainson's Thrush -75% 1.3
Tennessee Warbler -88% 0.4
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -67% 1.9
Brown Thrasher -52% 6.7
Olive-sided Flycatcher -73% 0.8
Red-eyed Vireo -50% 4.5
Yellow Warbler -55% 3.6
American Redstart -62% 1.7
Eastern Kingbird -74% 1.2
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -64% 1.4
Semipalmated Plover -68% 0.7
Hairy Woodpecker -40% 7
Black Tern -62% 1.1
Caspian Tern -62% 1.1
Gray Catbird -34% 9.7
Downy Woodpecker -30% 21.8
Least Flycatcher -45% 3.5
Bell's Vireo -75% 0.5
Nashville Warbler -41% 5.7
White-breasted Nuthatch -27% 16.8
Red-bellied Woodpecker -30% 18.5

Cackling Goose. Jody Wells/Macaulay Library. eBird S31713652

Cackling Goose. Jody Wells/Macaulay Library. eBird S31713652

West

Light to moderate flights were apparent across the region for much of the weekend. This was particularly true for the Central Valley of California, the area around the Great Salt Lake, and parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. By the beginning of the work week, intensities and extents of migration had decreased, with most of the action along the Pacific Coast for the remainder of the period. This included nice flights in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night and in California on Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Sparrow 126% 8.7
Cackling Goose 227% 1.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 35% 8.3
Fox Sparrow 44% 5
American Wigeon 30% 6.6
White-crowned Sparrow 16% 22.8
Greater White-fronted Goose 98% 1.4
Band-tailed Pigeon 35% 4.6
Yellow-rumped Warbler 15% 15.9
Northern Flicker 13% 29.3
Golden-crowned Kinglet 22% 4.9
Horned Grebe 52% 1.8
Hooded Merganser 75% 1.5
Dunlin 89% 0.7
Eared Grebe 19% 4.2
Say's Phoebe 11% 9.2
Ring-necked Duck 26% 2.1
Lincoln's Sparrow 12% 7.8
Varied Thrush 71% 0.5
Glaucous-winged Gull 17% 4.4
Herring Gull 38% 0.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-necked Phalarope -52% 1.4
Willow Flycatcher -42% 2
Warbling Vireo -38% 3.1
Bank Swallow -68% 0.3
Barn Swallow -32% 12.2
MacGillivray's Warbler -40% 1.8
Dusky Flycatcher -72% 0.2
Baird's Sandpiper -59% 0.7
Western Kingbird -48% 1.4
Gray Catbird -48% 0.8
Rufous Hummingbird -51% 0.9
Western Wood-Pewee -33% 4.2
Black-headed Grosbeak -48% 1.1
Brewer's Sparrow -35% 1.5
Green-tailed Towhee -37% 1.8
Clay-colored Sparrow -50% 0.5
Solitary Sandpiper -58% 0.4
Wilson's Warbler -25% 11.4
Swainson's Thrush -30% 1.7
Yellow Warbler -22% 9.8
White-faced Ibis -24% 3.3
Western Tanager -20% 6.5
Wilson's Phalarope -53% 0.4

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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