Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 21-28 August 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Aug 28, 2015

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Continental Summary

Moderate and some locally heavy migration was heavily featured across the continent during the past week, with the West seeing pulses of Northern Shoveler, Northern Pintail, Green-winged Teal, Solitary Sandpiper, Pectoral Sandpiper, and Orange-crowned Warbler among other migrants and the East seeing movements including Piping Plover, Solitary Sandpiper, Caspian Tern, Chestnut-sided Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, and Baltimore Oriole.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

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Upper Midwest and Northeast

Consistent moderate flights were the norm for this period, with both coastal and inland locations experiencing good movements of birds. Coastal flights were more prominent early and late in the period (e.g. Saturday, Thursday), whereas inland flights were more prominent in the middle of the period (e.g. Tuesday, Wednesday). These movements were associated with the passage of a frontal boundary last weekend that cleared the air, so to speak, and brought drier, generally cooler conditions with more favorable northerly and westerly winds for several days and nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Magnolia Warbler   400%   7.4
Tennessee Warbler            242%   6.5
Chestnut-sided Warbler     148%   10.2
American Redstart   85%     16.5
Blackburnian Warbler        115%   4.8
Wilson's Warbler    326%   1.9
Black-and-white Warbler   81%     11.5
Nashville Warbler   123%   3.9
Canada Warbler       90%     5.3
Swainson's Thrush  267%   1.7
Warbling Vireo         73%     7.7
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher        52%     14.7
Black-throated Green Warbler      99%     4.1
Bay-breasted Warbler        443%   1
Cape May Warbler   253%   1.6
Least Flycatcher       78%     4.1
Blackpoll Warbler   492%   0.9
Blue-winged Warbler         79%     3.4
Prairie Warbler        121%   2.2
Common Nighthawk            43%     4
White-breasted Nuthatch  17%     32.3
Red-eyed Vireo        28%     21
Philadelphia Vireo  162%   0.9
Golden-winged Warbler    95%     1.4
Ovenbird        65%     4.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Piping Plover -50%  0.6
Solitary Sandpiper    -29%  5.3
Eastern Kingbird      -22%  14
Purple Martin            -28%  3.8
Indigo Bunting          -23%  8.5
Spotted Sandpiper    -21%  10.8
Red-winged Blackbird          -22%  14.4
Song Sparrow            -16%  26.3
Least Tern      -25%  2
Black-crowned Night-Heron            -24%  2.4
Golden-crowned Kinglet      -47%  0.4
Pectoral Sandpiper   -33%  3.8
Dickcissel        -65%  0.2
Louisiana Waterthrush        -67%  0.1
Barn Swallow -11%  29.1
Hermit Thrush          -55%  0.3
Purple Finch  -28%  1.3
Red-breasted Nuthatch        -18%  3.3
Willow Flycatcher      -30%  1.3
Red-necked Phalarope         -43%  0.4
Ruddy Turnstone      -25%  2.4

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Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate movements, peaking on Tuesday night with the passage of a frontal boundary, highlighted the week in the region. Some of the flights, particularly in the southern Appalachians and even in the coastal Carolinas, were locally heavy, as birds departed in favorable winds.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chestnut-sided Warbler      421% 3.3
Baltimore Oriole        605% 2.8
Red-eyed Vireo          66%    11.8
Blue-winged Teal      70%    5.6
Northern Parula        70%    10.1
Eastern Wood-Pewee           45%    9.5
Ovenbird        204% 1.6
Black-and-white Warbler     60%    6.7
Northern Waterthrush         123% 2.6
Mourning Warbler    839% 0.8
American Redstart    66%    6
Blackburnian Warbler          608% 1.2
Canada Warbler        304% 1.9
Yellow-throated Vireo          59%    3.5
Black-throated Green Warbler        146% 1.7
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher     384% 1.2
Hooded Warbler       54%    4.1
Red-headed Woodpecker    48%    6.1
White-eyed Vireo      21%    16.1
White-breasted Nuthatch    30%    10.6
Worm-eating Warbler          65%    1.9
Pine Warbler 31%    6
Bobolink         153% 0.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swallow-tailed Kite   -80%  0.2
Magnificent Frigatebird       -53%  0.5
Marbled Godwit        -54%  0.8
Tricolored Heron       -23%  8.6
Least Tern      -34%  2.7
Willet  -22%  5.6
Long-billed Dowitcher          -46%  0.6
Royal Tern     -19%  5.4
Ruddy Turnstone      -21%  3.6
Bushtit            -79%  0
Gull-billed Tern         -42%  0.6

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Great Plains

A pulse of moderate to locally heavy flights on Saturday night was the migration highlight of the week. As low pressure moved east across the region, birds took flight in changing winds after its passage. However, after the initial departure wave on Saturday night, movements decreased substantially over the remainder of the period as less favorable winds built in with the arrival of high pressure. As the high pressure center drifted further east, some birds took flight in marginal and slightly favorable winds with light to moderate movements to end the week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bald Eagle      48610%         14.6
Tennessee Warbler  443% 6.7
Chestnut-sided Warbler      274% 5
Ovenbird        455% 4.5
Caspian Tern 351% 5
Northern Waterthrush         279% 2.5
Warbling Vireo          120% 12.4
Purple Finch  325% 2.2
Mourning Warbler    129% 3.5
Wilson's Warbler      90%    5.9
Magnolia Warbler     160% 2.2
American Redstart    69%    7.3
Rose-breasted Grosbeak      78%    6.7
Swainson's Thrush   134% 2.6
Philadelphia Vireo    228% 1.5
Nashville Warbler     205% 1.6
Least Flycatcher        42%    11.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Pectoral Sandpiper   -48%  4.9
Willet  -62%  1.3
Painted Bunting        -91%  0.2
Yellow-billed Cuckoo            -37%  5.7
Semipalmated Plover           -57%  2.2
Spotted Sandpiper    -39%  9.1
American Avocet       -58%  4.4
Indigo Bunting          -29%  10.1
Least Sandpiper        -35%  7.7
Eastern Towhee        -63%  0.7
Buff-breasted Sandpiper     -50%  1.8
Purple Martin            -28%  5.6
Black-bellied Plover  -65%  1.6
Turkey Vulture          -22%  22.4
American White Pelican       -39%  6.8
Great Egret    -29%  14.1
Dickcissel        -24%  8.7
Black-crowned Night-Heron            -55%  2.1
Cliff Swallow  -25%  9.9
Eastern Wood-Pewee           -22%  7.4
Marsh Wren  -54%  0.6

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West

The West saw a week of scattered light to moderate movements in many areas. Some flights were even locally heavy, particularly those east of the Rockies in Colorado on Saturday night. Note that this area experienced similar favorable conditions to the adjacent Great Plains (where movements of similar intensity occurred). Scattered precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday nights quieted the scene in portions of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region, before more extensive moderate flights returned for many areas in the Rockies to end the period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Pectoral Sandpiper   97%    2
Orange-crowned Warbler    26%    11.7
Northern Shoveler    32%    7.5
Northern Pintail        37%    4.9
Green-winged Teal   20%    7.3
Solitary Sandpiper    33%    3.6
Warbling Vireo          24%    7.7
American Coot           18%    12.2
Western Tanager      23%    12.1
Common Yellowthroat          17%    13.2
Townsend's Warbler            19%    4.2
Yellow Warbler         15%    17.5
Swainson's Thrush   41%    3.4
Red-necked Phalarope         24%    4.4
Song Sparrow            13%    23.6
Baird's Sandpiper     17%    4.4
American Wigeon      31%    2.2
Gray Catbird  24%    3.7
Wilson's Warbler      9%      16.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Nighthawk -43%  1.6
Cassin's Sparrow       -58%  0.2
Eastern Kingbird      -30%  2.8
Cattle Egret    -50%  0.5
Snowy Plover -55%  0.6
Eastern Meadowlark            -69%  0.1
Cliff Swallow  -25%  5.2
Upland Sandpiper    -72%  0.1
Red-faced Warbler   -56%  0.2
Painted Redstart       -32%  0.7
Western Wood-Pewee          -16%  9.6
Caspian Tern -18%  7.3
Olive Warbler            -69%  0.1
Bullock's Oriole          -24%  2.8

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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