Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 26 September – 3 October 2014

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 04, 2014

Continental Summary

Widespread light to moderate movements occurred in both West and East, with some heavy and very heavy movements occurring more locally in space and time in the Plains to end the period. Species on the move this week included  Snow Goose, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Varied Thrush, Gray Catbird,Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Palm Warbler, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Palm Warbler, Lincoln’s Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, White-crowned Sparrow, White-throated Sparrow, Golden-crowned Sparrow, Swamp Sparrow, andDark-eyed Junco.


Light to moderate movements kicked off the weekend around the perimeter of the region from the Desert Southwest to the Pacific and over to the northern Rockies. This pattern continued, in general, until the middle of the week, when persistent mountain and basin precipitation and unsettled conditions shifted east. For the remainder of the period, light to moderate movements were widespread over many areas. Species on the move this week included Varied Thrush, Golden-crowned Sparrow, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Hermit Thrush, Fox Sparrow, Horned Grebe, Black-throated Gray Warbler, Mew Gull, White-crowned Sparrow, Northern Flicker, Ring-necked Duck, Western Meadowlark, and Surf Scoter.

Great Plains

Scattered movements kicked off the period and continued until mid week, when frontal passage and lingering precipitation changed the playing field. More extensive movements followed, particularly as skies cleared on Thursday night, when moderate to heavy and even very heavy movements. Most of these were in the central and southern Plains, east of a lingering area of precipitation but behind the passage of the front (as expected). Species on the move this week included Dark-eyed Junco, Lincoln’s Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, Snow Goose, White-throated Sparrow, Harris’s Sparrow, Belted Kingfisher, Osprey, Brown Creeper, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Hermit Thrush, Common Grackle, and White-crowned Sparrow.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Widespread light to moderate movements occurred for much of the early part of the forecast period over much of the region. The extent of these movements decreased substantially by Wednesday and Thursday nights, distributed primarily east of the Appalachians. However, these movements increased in intensity, particularly in coastal New England where some heavy movements occurred. Species on the move this week included White-crowned Sparrow, White-throated Sparrow, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Swamp Sparrow, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Dark-eyed Junco, Hermit Thrush, Nelson’s Sparrow, Winter Wren, White-winged Scoter, Brown Creeper, Orange-crowned Warbler, and Red-winged Blackbird.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Widespread light to moderate movements were the norm for the early part of the forecast period, becoming increasingly southeastern in distribution by mid week but also increasing in intensity to heavy movements in some areas. By the end of the week, light to locally moderate movements were apparent in coastal Atlantic locations and Florida, while heavy and very heavy movements returned behind a strong frontal boundary in Texas. Species on the move this week included Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Palm Warbler, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Gray Catbird, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Northern Flicker, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, American Robin, Indigo Bunting, House Wren, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Brown Thrasher, Swainson’s Thrush, Swamp Sparrow, and Eastern Towhee.