Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 27 March–3 April 2015

Benjamin Van Doren The Cornell Lab Apr 03, 2015

Golden-crowned Kinglet © Ian Davies

Golden-crowned Kinglet © Ian Davies

Continental Summary

Light to moderate movements, primarily in California and the Desert Southwest, in the first half of the week included Swainson’s Hawk, Franklin’s Gull, Barn Swallow, Cliff Swallow, Nashville Warbler, Common Grackle for the West, while scattered pulses of light to moderate movements reached a peak by the end of the week in the East and included Great Crested Flycatcher, Tree Swallow, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Chipping Sparrow, Swamp Sparrow, and Orchard Oriole.

Wondering what species will move next? Check out our forecast.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Other than a few bursts of light to moderate movements in the Upper Mississippi River valley, most of the region was quiet until Wednesday night. Moderate movements, with some heavy migration, occurred on this night from the western Great Lakes south and east toward the mid Atlantic coast. These movements occurred in largely favorable conditions in advance of a cold front moving through the Great Plains. This front continued through the region and nearly reached the Atlantic Coast on Thursday night, shutting down movements in its wake and spawning light to moderate coastal flights from Virginia to southern New England.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Kinglet 271% 7.4
Eastern Phoebe 101% 17.2
Tree Swallow 116% 15.4
Double-crested Cormorant 96% 11.4
Great Egret 162% 3.9
Brown-headed Cowbird 67% 15.3
Osprey 76% 7.8
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 138% 4.0
Chipping Sparrow 82% 4.7
Blue-winged Teal 73% 7.0
Northern Flicker 50% 13.5
Brown Creeper 71% 5.9
Pied-billed Grebe 51% 9.4
Field Sparrow 91% 4.1
Song Sparrow 24% 43.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 265% 1.5
American Robin 23% 58.7
Great Blue Heron 28% 17.3
Brown Thrasher 76% 2.4
Killdeer 37% 19.6
Fox Sparrow 40% 7.1
Hermit Thrush 108% 1.7
Belted Kingfisher 42% 5.9
Winter Wren 143% 1.3
Turkey Vulture 19% 28.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Snow Bunting -65% 0.1
Harlequin Duck -36% 0.1
Glaucous Gull -64% 0.2
Snowy Owl -45% 0.3
Cackling Goose -22% 0.3
Red-necked Grebe -37% 0.5
Greater White-fronted Goose -26% 0.7
Surf Scoter -36% 1.0
Long-tailed Duck -32% 1.2
White-winged Scoter -21% 1.4
Snow Goose -27% 2.6
Tundra Swan -18% 2.9
Horned Lark -12% 3.4
Canvasback -19% 3.5
Greater Scaup -15% 3.5
Northern Pintail -9% 4.5
Redhead -14% 6.4
Common Goldeneye -16% 6.8

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher © Ian Davies

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher © Ian Davies

Gulf Coast and Southeast

For most of the period, scattered light to locally moderate movements were the norm. But by Wednesday and Thursday night, increasingly favorable winds and warmer conditions brought more extensive movements. These were primarily moderate flights, but they extended from Texas to Florida. By Thursday night, some of these movements in central and northern Florida were moderate to heavy.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Great Crested Flycatcher 108% 8.8
Prairie Warbler 70% 6.6
Orchard Oriole 192% 1.7
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 29% 17.9
White-eyed Vireo 29% 19.9
Ovenbird 108% 2.0
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 44% 5.4
Indigo Bunting 43% 2.6
Barn Swallow 17% 15.7
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 20% 6.7
Gray Catbird 21% 12.6
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 18% 9.0
Brown-headed Cowbird 21% 17.2
Palm Warbler 17% 14.2
Osprey 14% 20.6
Black-throated Green Warbler 55% 1.7
Broad-winged Hawk 45% 2.1
Swallow-tailed Kite 30% 3.4
Northern Parula 14% 15.4
Green Heron 25% 5.9
Cedar Waxwing 20% 13.2
Summer Tanager 67% 1.0

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Kestrel -22% 6.5
American White Pelican -16% 4.5
American Wigeon -37% 1.4
Bufflehead -28% 2.7
Cinnamon Teal -49% 0.4
Eastern Phoebe -9% 12.2
Fox Sparrow -79% 0.1
Gadwall -35% 3.6
Green-winged Teal -36% 2.3
Harris's Sparrow -59% 0.4
Hooded Merganser -33% 1.1
Horned Grebe -34% 1.5
Lesser Scaup -37% 2.9
Northern Pintail -86% 0.1
Northern Shoveler -20% 6.1
Orange-crowned Warbler -23% 4.3
Pied-billed Grebe -12% 13.6
Ring-billed Gull -21% 9.3
Ring-necked Duck -49% 1.5

Chipping Sparrow © Ian Davies

Chipping Sparrow © Ian Davies

Great Plains

A few nights of light to moderate movements brought migrants into the region, but none of these movements were widespread. Early period movements were generally in the central and southern Plains. Tuesday night finally saw moderate movements from the northern (and central) Plains, where such flights have been generally understated this spring. But after these flights, conditions deteriorated with the passage of low pressure, keeping flights local, mostly light, and primarily southerly in extent.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tundra Swan 108% 2.2
Swamp Sparrow 235% 3.1
Wilson's Snipe 188% 3.3
Brewer's Blackbird 118% 4.3
Field Sparrow 38% 7.4
Chipping Sparrow 324% 8.2
Pied-billed Grebe 29% 11.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 32% 17.5
Double-crested Cormorant 34% 18.0
Eastern Meadowlark 91% 19.1
American Coot 21% 19.1
Song Sparrow 29% 19.2
Great Blue Heron 21% 20.7
Eastern Phoebe 26% 22.3
Northern Flicker 19% 27.5
Blue-winged Teal 42% 29.8
House Sparrow 19% 31.1
Turkey Vulture 81% 33.7
Common Grackle 71% 43.0
American Robin 26% 61.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Snow Bunting -71% 0.1
Red-breasted Nuthatch -55% 0.5
Cackling Goose -83% 0.5
Ross's Goose -70% 0.6
Sandhill Crane -75% 2.2
Common Merganser -48% 2.5
Greater White-fronted Goose -22% 3.3
Herring Gull -26% 3.4
American Tree Sparrow -36% 4.5
Common Goldeneye -27% 4.5
Snow Goose -37% 5.2
Bald Eagle -13% 9.5
Bufflehead -41% 9.5
Northern Pintail -31% 9.6

Cliff Swallow © Ian Davies

Cliff Swallow © Ian Davies

West

California and the Desert Southwest saw a run of nights that spanned the forecast period on which light to moderate movements occurred. Arizona, as evident from Phoenix and Yuma radars, saw the greatest intensities of these movements. Aside from these parts of the West, scattered and local light movements in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Montana brought migrant arrivals in small numbers.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Goldfinch 25% 10.1
Ash-throated Flycatcher 48% 2.2
Barn Swallow 61% 6.9
Black-chinned Hummingbird 37% 3.1
Black-throated Gray Warbler 44% 1.4
Broad-tailed Hummingbird 47% 0.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 17% 3.5
Bullock's Oriole 28% 3.4
Burrowing Owl 48% 1.1
Caspian Tern 51% 2.4
Cliff Swallow 57% 5.4
Common Grackle 322% 2.3
Common Yellowthroat 21% 7.4
Franklin's Gull 80% 0.6
Hooded Oriole 32% 5.3
Nashville Warbler 151% 0.3
Osprey 23% 4.7
Rufous Hummingbird 19% 5.6
Swainson's Hawk 90% 2.7
Turkey Vulture 12% 20.4
Violet-green Swallow 16% 8.4
Yellow Warbler 29% 1.9
Yellow-headed Blackbird 26% 2.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Canvasback -30% 2.1
Common Goldeneye -23% 4.7
Common Merganser -12% 5.4
Dark-eyed Junco -9% 23.0
Fox Sparrow -15% 3.2
Hermit Thrush -27% 3.4
Hooded Merganser -16% 3.1
Northern Flicker -17% 22.4
Northern Pintail -16% 4.8
Rough-legged Hawk -40% 0.6
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -20% 11.7
Tundra Swan -87% 0.1
Varied Thrush -31% 3.0

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