Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 30 April – 6 May 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab May 06, 2016

Magnolia Warbler. Sue Orwig/Macaulay Library. 4 May 2016. eBird S29409005

Magnolia Warbler. Sue Orwig/Macaulay Library. 4 May 2016. eBird S29409005

Continental Summary

Moderate movements, particularly from California east through the central and southern Rockies, featured Black Tern, Cordilleran Flycatcher, Plumbeous Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Western Tanager and highlighted the period in the West, while moderate to heavy flights, particularly in the central and southern US, featured Common Nighthawk, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Least Flycatcher, Philadelphia Vireo, Veery, Magnolia Warbler, and American Redstart and highlighted the period in the East.

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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

The weekend saw moderate to locally heavy flights patchily distributed across the region, with perhaps the most intense and extensive flights on Sunday in the Ohio River Valley. Similarly patchy distributions of movements continued through Tuesday, when migration reach its greatest extents from western New York and the mid Atlantic states west through the central Mississippi River Valley. These patchy distributions related directly to the presence of fairly extensive precipitation and generally unfavorable winds, particularly in more coastal locations. Note that several interesting concentration events occurred, most notably in Cape May on Monday. By the end of the week, conditions farther west in the region had improved significantly to allow for moderate to locally heavy flights to return in the Mississippi River Valley. But many locations farther east continued to experience poor conditions for migration as the Omega block presently in place kept much of the region cool, wet, and with easterly flow.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Baltimore Oriole 147% 21.9
Veery 311% 6.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 126% 19.6
Chestnut-sided Warbler 206% 5.6
Magnolia Warbler 562% 2.5
American Redstart 140% 8.5
Least Flycatcher 406% 2.5
Great Crested Flycatcher 110% 9.9
Blackburnian Warbler 181% 3.6
Wood Thrush 79% 16.8
Gray Catbird 65% 33.8
Black-throated Green Warbler 100% 12.3
Ovenbird 84% 17.3
White-crowned Sparrow 84% 12.2
Black-throated Blue Warbler 137% 6
Eastern Wood-Pewee 238% 2.3
Bobolink 251% 1.8
Yellow Warbler 57% 29.8
Scarlet Tanager 79% 9.1
Nashville Warbler 66% 9.3
Warbling Vireo 51% 13.8
Black-and-white Warbler 53% 17.7
Acadian Flycatcher 216% 1.3
Common Yellowthroat 49% 20.8
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 100% 2.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Rusty Blackbird -45% 1.2
Dark-eyed Junco -53% 3.4
Pectoral Sandpiper -44% 0.9
Yellow-throated Warbler -32% 2.3
Hermit Thrush -26% 6.8
Green-winged Teal -35% 2
American Tree Sparrow -70% 0.4
Purple Finch -27% 3.3
Northern Shoveler -28% 2
Blue-winged Teal -17% 5.7
Pine Warbler -16% 6.6
Broad-winged Hawk -21% 3.3
American Kestrel -24% 2.5
White-throated Sparrow -17% 35.8
Northern Pintail -54% 0.2
Bufflehead -24% 2.8
Carolina Wren -9% 18.1
Wild Turkey -16% 6
Northern Harrier -24% 1.7
Turkey Vulture -8% 23
Long-billed Dowitcher -60% 0.2
American Coot -15% 3.9
Brown Creeper -25% 1.9

Blackburnian Warbler. Sue Barth/Macaulay Library. 5 May 2016. eBird S29429907

Blackburnian Warbler. Sue Barth/Macaulay Library. 5 May 2016. eBird S29429907

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to heavy flights were the norm in many areas for the first half of the period in advance of frontal passage that occurred on Sunday night and Monday. Movements continued in its wake, though these were more localized and less intense. By Tuesday and continuing through Thursday, more intense movements returned to the region, primarily in Texas and Louisiana.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bay-breasted Warbler 230% 6.6
Magnolia Warbler 122% 11.1
American Redstart 87% 20.5
Philadelphia Vireo 453% 4
Least Flycatcher 124% 3.6
Blackburnian Warbler 265% 6.2
Yellow Warbler 49% 13.4
Swainson's Thrush 69% 10.4
Chestnut-sided Warbler 53% 9.2
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 42% 14.8
Wilson's Warbler 100% 3
Eastern Wood-Pewee 36% 12.5
White-rumped Sandpiper 161% 2.1
Semipalmated Sandpiper 57% 4.6
Gray-cheeked Thrush 104% 4
Canada Warbler 68% 2.2
Barn Swallow 25% 29.4
Common Nighthawk 33% 7
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 1264% 0.6
Least Sandpiper 28% 7.9
Willow Flycatcher 691% 0.5
Acadian Flycatcher 31% 5.3
Dickcissel 21% 6.6
Bank Swallow 44% 1.9
Chimney Swift 17% 22.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-throated Sparrow -61% 2.7
Cerulean Warbler -74% 0.3
Sora -51% 1.1
Palm Warbler -32% 3.9
Yellow-rumped Warbler -36% 6.7
Pine Siskin -40% 2.1
Blue-winged Warbler -54% 0.9
Prairie Warbler -33% 3.1
Worm-eating Warbler -39% 1.9
Northern Harrier -80% 0.2
Marsh Wren -44% 1.2
Swamp Sparrow -61% 0.5
Upland Sandpiper -79% 0.1
Roseate Spoonbill -25% 3.3
Dark-eyed Junco -74% 0.4
Piping Plover -54% 0.3
Pied-billed Grebe -36% 2.4
American Coot -26% 5.6
Willet -19% 5.5
American Goldfinch -22% 11.2
Marbled Godwit -64% 0.2
Sharp-shinned Hawk -44% 0.6
Swainson's Hawk -31% 1.6

Common Nighthawk. JoAnna Clayton/Macaulay Library. 5 May 2016. eBird S29423599

Common Nighthawk. JoAnna Clayton/Macaulay Library. 5 May 2016. eBird S29423599

Great Plains

A quiet weekend saw movements restricted mostly to the northern and central Plains states, where moderate flights occurred. This restriction was largely a function of a passing low pressure system through the central and southern Plains. By Monday night, more extensive moderate to locally heavy flights were aloft over the central Plains. These movements intensified and expanded to include the breadth of the region by Wednesday and Thursday night, when moderate to heavy movements reached their greatest extents so far of the spring in highly favorable migration conditions.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow Warbler 163% 19.5
Least Flycatcher 244% 6.1
Black-crowned Night-Heron 247% 4.5
Swainson's Thrush 67% 21.5
Clay-colored Sparrow 78% 12.4
Indigo Bunting 76% 15.1
Eastern Wood-Pewee 297% 2.9
Gray Catbird 91% 7.8
Dickcissel 80% 10.1
Blue-headed Vireo 169% 3.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 92% 5.2
Warbling Vireo 56% 16.1
Bobolink 190% 2.3
American Redstart 715% 1.5
House Wren 47% 22
Bullock's Oriole 524% 1.6
Red-eyed Vireo 54% 11.9
Summer Tanager 54% 9.4
Orchard Oriole 53% 6.3
Common Nighthawk 196% 2.4
Common Yellowthroat 59% 8.7
Northern Waterthrush 97% 2.9
Red-headed Woodpecker 53% 10.1
Great Crested Flycatcher 29% 14.6
Blackpoll Warbler 139% 2.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hermit Thrush -72% 0.8
Osprey -51% 2.2
Dark-eyed Junco -99% 0
Greater Yellowlegs -27% 5.6
Green-winged Teal -36% 3.3
American Kestrel -30% 6.5
Wild Turkey -20% 8.1
Purple Finch -65% 0.6
Field Sparrow -20% 7.6
Greater Scaup -73% 0.2
Baird's Sandpiper -26% 4.2
Ring-necked Pheasant -17% 9.5
Little Blue Heron -45% 0.6
Ring-billed Gull -18% 8.1
Northern Harrier -39% 2.3
Lark Sparrow -24% 12.3
Herring Gull -55% 0.6
Double-crested Cormorant -14% 14.3
Blue-winged Teal -11% 29.2
Swamp Sparrow -42% 0.9
Bonaparte's Gull -41% 1
American Pipit -38% 0.8
Wilson's Snipe -34% 1.3
American Golden-Plover -29% 0.7
Vesper Sparrow -23% 4

Plumbeous Vireo. Gordon Karre/Macaulay Library. 2 May 2016. eBird S29357013

Plumbeous Vireo. Gordon Karre/Macaulay Library. 2 May 2016. eBird S29357013

West

Scattered precipitation kept most movements locally and light for the first half of the weekend in many areas. However, Sunday night saw a pulse of moderate flights in California and more extensive light to locally moderate flights in the Desert Southwest and in portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. These movements intensified on Monday night, and even expanded during the coming nights. By Wednesday night, moderate flights were apparent from California south and east through the Desert Southwest, and along the eastern front of the Rockies in Colorado and New Mexico. Thursday night saw scattered precipitation return to many areas west of the Rockies, but moderate flights continued in many areas east of the Rockies.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swainson's Thrush 270% 4
Western Tanager 77% 13.1
Yellow Warbler 61% 14.5
Black-headed Grosbeak 48% 18.4
Western Wood-Pewee 73% 5.9
MacGillivray's Warbler 80% 3.2
Olive-sided Flycatcher 84% 3
Bullock's Oriole 44% 10.8
Warbling Vireo 47% 9.3
Townsend's Warbler 48% 5.5
Clay-colored Sparrow 217% 0.9
Plumbeous Vireo 66% 3.1
Western Kingbird 45% 14.3
Blue Jay 75% 3.4
Spotted Sandpiper 31% 9.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 35% 20.7
Chipping Sparrow 33% 12.3
Wilson's Warbler 28% 18.2
Black Tern 3276% 0.4
Hepatic Tanager 95% 1
Yellow-breasted Chat 50% 3.6
Lazuli Bunting 35% 6.4
Cordilleran Flycatcher 348% 0.4
Broad-tailed Hummingbird 33% 4.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Sparrow -55% 2
Least Sandpiper -42% 3.9
Horned Grebe -60% 0.7
Greater Yellowlegs -40% 2.1
American Pipit -54% 1.1
Red-breasted Merganser -49% 0.8
Cackling Goose -55% 0.5
Bufflehead -32% 4.8
Bonaparte's Gull -41% 1.9
Green-winged Teal -26% 5.3
Belted Kingfisher -23% 5.4
American Wigeon -25% 5
Franklin's Gull -34% 1.9
Lesser Scaup -23% 3.3
Marbled Godwit -28% 1.7
Western Sandpiper -23% 3.9
White-throated Sparrow -45% 0.3
Northern Harrier -19% 4.3
Costa's Hummingbird -26% 1.5
Willet -28% 2.9
Greater White-fronted Goose -36% 0.5
Common Goldeneye -33% 1.1
Lesser Yellowlegs -37% 1.1
Barrow's Goldeneye -44% 0.3
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -18% 11.7

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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