Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 4-11 March 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Mar 11, 2016

Eastern Phoebe. Dave Kerr/Macaulay Library. 11 March 2016. eBird S28096826, ML 25574371

Eastern Phoebe. Dave Kerr/Macaulay Library. 11 March 2016. eBird S28096826, ML 25574371

Continental Summary

Conditions in the West were more unfavorable than favorable this week, with only light movements early in the weekend and late in the work week, while localized light to moderate movements in the Great Plains and Texas and parts of the southeast were there highlights of migration in the East.

Wondering what species will be migrating through this week? Check out our forecast for the next 7 days.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A quiet weekend of cool conditions kept most birds on the ground. The first signs of movement occurred Sunday night, with light migration in the central Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys. The Ohio River valley, northern and central Appalachians, and mid Atlantic saw continued, scattered flights of this intensity for much of the remainder of the work week. However, the week ended with a strong frontal passage with extensive and intense rain, leaving only localized light flights to the south and east of the frontal boundary.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Killdeer 140% 22.8
Eastern Phoebe 533% 5.1
Tree Swallow 343% 4.6
Common Grackle 79% 32.7
American Robin 59% 52.2
Wood Duck 101% 11.6
Song Sparrow 63% 38
Sandhill Crane 139% 6.8
Red-winged Blackbird 54% 49.1
Eastern Meadowlark 108% 4.2
Northern Shoveler 78% 8.3
Brown-headed Cowbird 70% 7.7
Green-winged Teal 67% 8.1
American Woodcock 95% 4.2
Eastern Bluebird 43% 16.4
Blue-winged Teal 413% 0.9
Field Sparrow 87% 2.4
Pine Warbler 101% 1.7
Ring-necked Duck 38% 12.9
Northern Flicker 31% 10.3
Fox Sparrow 49% 4.1
Wilson's Snipe 104% 1.1
Mallard 28% 43
Pied-billed Grebe 54% 3.6
Rusty Blackbird 65% 2.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Harlequin Duck -54% 0.2
Purple Finch -38% 1.9
Common Eider -36% 0.8
Snowy Owl -59% 0.1
Lesser Black-backed Gull -32% 0.5
Common Murre -75% 0.1
Surf Scoter -26% 1.2
Pine Siskin -21% 4.3
White-winged Crossbill -61% 0
Razorbill -35% 0.3
White-crowned Sparrow -30% 1
Black Scoter -26% 0.9
Common Loon -20% 2.4
Iceland Gull -37% 0.4
Bonaparte's Gull -20% 0.7
White-winged Scoter -22% 1.3
Northern Harrier -11% 3.3

Chuck-will's-widow. Jim and Melba Funk/Macaulay Library. 12 February 2016. eBird S27693549, ML 24661591

Chuck-will’s-widow. Jim and Melba Funk/Macaulay Library. 12 February 2016. eBird S27693549, ML 24661591

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Scattered light to moderate flights kicked off the period in Texas, followed by more widespread light flights from Texas to the southern Appalachians and then Florida and the southeastern US. By Tuesday night strong storms moved through the region and across the Mississippi River valley, stopping movements in these areas. Light movements continued ahead of this system, from Tuesday night through the remainder of the period, in the southern Appalachians and coastal Plain from the Carolinas through the Florida Keys.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swallow-tailed Kite 103% 3.5
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 92% 2.5
Barn Swallow 68% 2.7
Pectoral Sandpiper 145% 0.7
Northern Parula 31% 8.8
American Golden-Plover 127% 0.7
Chuck-will's-widow 252% 0.4
Cattle Egret 27% 6.9
Tree Swallow 28% 13
Eastern Towhee 14% 16.4
Glossy Ibis 22% 6.4
Eastern Whip-poor-will 180% 0.2
Peregrine Falcon 64% 1.3
Black-chinned Hummingbird 57% 0.8
Couch's Kingbird 38% 1.3
Swainson's Hawk 194% 0.1
Brown-headed Cowbird 12% 8.6
Cliff Swallow 67% 0.3
Black-and-white Warbler 21% 5.2
Black-necked Stilt 40% 2.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-tailed Hawk -26% 8.5
Lincoln's Sparrow -30% 2.8
Ring-necked Duck -27% 4.9
Long-billed Curlew -41% 0.7
Orange-crowned Warbler -20% 6.1
Burrowing Owl -59% 0.2
White-crowned Sparrow -27% 2.6
American Bittern -40% 0.9
Hermit Thrush -25% 3.7
Fox Sparrow -34% 0.9
Vesper Sparrow -30% 1.5
Red-headed Woodpecker -29% 2.4
Great Cormorant -79% 0.1
Harris's Sparrow -32% 0.8
Northern Pintail -30% 1.1
Ruddy Duck -20% 3.3

Tree Swallow. Dennis Cheeseman. 9 March 2016. eBird S28064075, ML 25504821.

Tree Swallow. Dennis Cheeseman. 9 March 2016. eBird S28064075, ML 25504821.

Great Plains

Localized light to moderate flights highlighted the beginning of the weekend in the southern Plains, with some continuation of this flight through the weekend in the central Plains. These movements represented the most of the movement occurring in the region for the period. The days that followed these flights saw a frontal boundary shut down flights, with precipitation, cooler temperatures, and unfavorable winds. Highly localized light migration was scattered across the region to end the period, as ameliorating temperatures allowed some birds to take flight.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-winged Teal 153% 5.2
Western Meadowlark 85% 12.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 93% 7.5
Eastern Meadowlark 68% 14.7
Killdeer 42% 32.6
Red-winged Blackbird 39% 42.1
Common Grackle 50% 16.2
Tree Swallow 396% 1.2
Eastern Phoebe 42% 11.5
Great Egret 365% 1.2
American White Pelican 127% 4.1
Northern Shoveler 27% 10.5
Hermit Thrush 191% 1.5
Great Blue Heron 33% 12.5
Baird's Sandpiper 105% 1.3
Wood Duck 23% 5.3
American Woodcock 104% 2
Long-billed Dowitcher 110% 0.8
Sandhill Crane 35% 4.2
Green-winged Teal 22% 11.1
Belted Kingfisher 40% 4.8
Mallard 16% 34.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Saw-whet Owl -85% 0.2
Smith's Longspur -80% 0.1
American Goldfinch -29% 13.5
Pine Siskin -36% 2.9
Northern Harrier -27% 6.5
Prairie Falcon -75% 0.2
Common Merganser -24% 3.9
White-crowned Sparrow -25% 3.9
Common Raven -57% 0.4
Chipping Sparrow -50% 0.6
Red-tailed Hawk -13% 22.2
Ross's Goose -25% 2.1
Bald Eagle -14% 10.5
Snow Goose -14% 8.1
Eastern Towhee -81% 0.1
Northern Shrike -26% 1.1
Herring Gull -18% 2.5
Field Sparrow -37% 1.8
Long-tailed Duck -62% 0.1
Ferruginous Hawk -71% 0.1

Lucy's Warbler. Barry McKee/Macaulay Library. 8 March 2016. eBird S28057349, ML 25487771

Lucy’s Warbler. Barry McKee/Macaulay Library. 8 March 2016. eBird S28057349, ML 25487771

West

Precipitation, particularly along the coast and in the mountains, and unfavorable conditions kept most migration very light at best for the first half of the period. By mid week, particularly Wednesday night, movements were more apparent, with light flights in the Central Valley and in some portions of the Desert Southwest. Flights in these areas continued through the end of the period, with some expansion to the north along the eastern front of the Rockies.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lucy's Warbler 354% 1.3
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 47% 6.7
Violet-green Swallow 72% 4.5
Hooded Oriole 118% 1.1
Common Black Hawk 180% 0.8
Bell's Vireo 335% 0.6
Wilson's Warbler 247% 0.6
Black-throated Gray Warbler 141% 1
House Wren 49% 3.8
Black-chinned Hummingbird 325% 0.4
Vermilion Flycatcher 31% 3.7
Cliff Swallow 41% 2
Swainson's Hawk 104% 0.5
Mountain Bluebird 29% 2.9
Orange-crowned Warbler 25% 5.8
Cooper's Hawk 17% 8
Wandering Tattler 227% 0.3
Cedar Waxwing 27% 5
Painted Redstart 58% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Avocet -41% 2
White-faced Ibis -40% 0.8
Greater White-fronted Goose -31% 1.2
Snow Goose -30% 1.5
Cackling Goose -27% 3.2
Northern Harrier -23% 6.9
Brown Pelican -32% 1.9
Lesser Yellowlegs -83% 0.1
Long-billed Curlew -32% 1.5
Redhead -22% 2.4
Eurasian Wigeon -41% 0.8
Northern Pintail -17% 6.3
Canvasback -16% 3.1
Black-necked Stilt -26% 2.4
Sandhill Crane -20% 2.3
Merlin -25% 1.3
Northern Shoveler -16% 10.8
Black-bellied Plover -29% 1.2
Ring-billed Gull -13% 8.4
Brown Creeper -16% 3.5
Black Skimmer -69% 0.1
Red-breasted Nuthatch -16% 4.5

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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