Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 7-14 April 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 14, 2017

Yellow-throated Warbler. Karen and Tom Beatty/Macaulay Library. eBird S35689749.

Continental Summary

The past week in the West saw light to moderate flights primarily in the southern portion of the region featuring Swainson’s Hawk, Vaux’s Swift, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Cassin’s Vireo, Nashville Warbler, and Lazuli Bunting, while moderate and locally heavy flights came to many areas of the East and featured Marbled Godwit, Hudsonian Godwit, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush, House Wren, Northern Parula, Tennessee Warbler, and Rose-breasted Grosbeak.

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Quick Links to Regions

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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Locally moderate flights kicked off the period in the Midwest. By Sunday these movements were more widespread, covering the entirety of the region other than portions of the western Great Lakes. As a frontal boundary pushed east, these movements became increasingly restricted, first to the east of the Ohio River Valley and Appalachians and then to the coastal plain. Wednesday and Thursday nights saw a new round of light to moderate flights; however, these were not as widespread as flights earlier in the period, with conditions in much of New England and the northern Appalachians unfavorable for much movement.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 121% 19.5
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 106% 12.8
Barn Swallow 125% 8.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler 77% 14.7
Chipping Sparrow 62% 24.7
Northern Flicker 37% 33.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 69% 7.8
Hermit Thrush 70% 7.1
Broad-winged Hawk 226% 2
Northern Parula 170% 2.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 52% 8.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 37% 28.3
Pine Warbler 55% 8.1
American Goldfinch 28% 38.7
Eastern Towhee 41% 14.3
House Wren 279% 1.7
Brown Thrasher 51% 8.8
Purple Finch 63% 6
Swamp Sparrow 47% 8.2
Yellow-throated Warbler 77% 3
Tree Swallow 26% 29
Purple Martin 98% 2.2
White-throated Sparrow 26% 22.4
White-eyed Vireo 180% 0.7
Field Sparrow 31% 11.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hooded Merganser -44% 4.5
Ring-necked Duck -36% 7.2
American Black Duck -37% 4.2
Fox Sparrow -42% 3.4
American Tree Sparrow -35% 4.6
Golden-crowned Kinglet -25% 9.9
Dark-eyed Junco -18% 26.3
Common Merganser -31% 5.4
Lesser Scaup -35% 4.3
Common Goldeneye -48% 1.5
Bufflehead -20% 11.4
American Wigeon -36% 2.6
Ring-billed Gull -17% 14.7
Snow Goose -61% 0.5
Northern Pintail -56% 0.7
Green-winged Teal -27% 5.8
Canvasback -44% 0.9
Tundra Swan -79% 0.1
Gadwall -22% 5
Red-breasted Merganser -17% 6
Greater White-fronted Goose -49% 0.2
Killdeer -14% 13.9
Greater Scaup -29% 1.5
Horned Lark -25% 1.8

Rose-breasted Grosbeak. Sandi Templeton/Macaulay Library. eBird S35899550.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to locally moderate flights were the norm for the weekend across the region, with generally unfavorable winds following passage of a strong frontal boundary in the preceding days. A new frontal boundary, and southerly flow ahead of it, spawned more intense flights on Monday night, particularly in Texas and Louisiana. Its passage also reduced and restricted flight intensities, but by Wednesday and Thursday nights more intense moderate flights had become more widespread in increasingly favorable conditions.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Summer Tanager 119% 9.4
Wood Thrush 171% 3.4
Red-eyed Vireo 93% 11.3
Scarlet Tanager 164% 4.1
Orchard Oriole 121% 6.8
Worm-eating Warbler 145% 4.9
Kentucky Warbler 174% 2.3
Indigo Bunting 89% 8.2
Blue Grosbeak 161% 2.6
American Redstart 129% 3.2
Tennessee Warbler 192% 1.9
Eastern Kingbird 71% 10.1
Hooded Warbler 87% 7.4
Chimney Swift 64% 13.3
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 189% 1.5
Swainson's Warbler 121% 2.1
Prothonotary Warbler 79% 6
Cape May Warbler 169% 1.5
Great Crested Flycatcher 42% 16.1
Ovenbird 80% 3.3
Blue-winged Warbler 157% 1.5
Northern Waterthrush 106% 1.9
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 42% 10.8
Swainson's Thrush 180% 1
Chuck-will's-widow 71% 2.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -67% 0.8
Pied-billed Grebe -28% 6.6
Double-crested Cormorant -22% 15.1
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -20% 12.5
American Kestrel -41% 2
Green-winged Teal -59% 0.7
Northern Flicker -26% 4.5
Hermit Thrush -32% 2.4
Ring-billed Gull -24% 4.8
Osprey -11% 15.8
Bonaparte's Gull -55% 0.6
Northern Shoveler -25% 3.2
Mallard -16% 7.8
Northern Harrier -32% 2.1
Bufflehead -61% 0.5
Chipping Sparrow -14% 13
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -58% 0.5
Fish Crow -11% 19.1
Canada Goose -12% 11.2
Wilson's Snipe -39% 1.1
Song Sparrow -14% 6.7
Western Sandpiper -30% 1.2
Bald Eagle -14% 5.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler -7% 19.8

Hudsonian Godwit. Brian Peterson/Macaulay Library. eBird S35813240.

Great Plains

Locally light to moderate flights were the norm for the weekend, first in the eastern reaches of the region and then increasingly restricted to more southerly reaches. Friday night’s flights were the most intense of the period, as the remainder of the week saw scattered light to locally moderate flights peppered across the region. Although these became generally more widespread by period’s end, intensities did not increase noticeably over the period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
House Wren 264% 4
Lesser Yellowlegs 93% 10.9
Northern Parula 130% 6.9
Yellow-headed Blackbird 112% 6.3
Long-billed Dowitcher 155% 4.1
Chipping Sparrow 60% 13.7
Hudsonian Godwit 247% 2.3
Pectoral Sandpiper 116% 5.5
Swainson's Hawk 146% 3.9
Barn Swallow 57% 15.4
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 60% 12.6
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 78% 8.8
Marbled Godwit 291% 2
Brown Thrasher 58% 13.4
Grasshopper Sparrow 177% 2.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 41% 24.2
Baird's Sandpiper 93% 4.9
Broad-winged Hawk 188% 2
Sora 183% 2
Wilson's Snipe 84% 6.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler 40% 17
Franklin's Gull 57% 9.3
American Avocet 101% 4.1
Tree Swallow 42% 15.7
White-faced Ibis 134% 3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -67% 7.5
Ring-necked Duck -40% 5.8
Common Goldeneye -70% 0.9
American Tree Sparrow -65% 1.1
Lesser Scaup -27% 9.6
Ruddy Duck -28% 7.3
Red-breasted Merganser -65% 0.7
Fox Sparrow -53% 1.5
Bald Eagle -30% 5
American Wigeon -21% 7.7
Herring Gull -51% 0.9
Tundra Swan -51% 0.9
Bufflehead -19% 8.7
Greater Scaup -47% 0.7
Northern Shoveler -9% 24.1
Hooded Merganser -23% 3.8
Redhead -19% 5.4
Green-winged Teal -14% 11.7
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -45% 0.7
Brown Creeper -31% 1.8
Pied-billed Grebe -13% 13.9
Snow Goose -21% 3.2
Purple Finch -39% 0.6
Rough-legged Hawk -54% 0.3

Grace’s Warbler. Chris McCreedy/Macaulay Library. eBird S35860975.

West

Scattered precipitation occurred in many areas to kick off the period, with most movements restricted to portions of California and the Desert Southwest. In the wake of precipitation in more northerly areas, migration in those areas continued to show a slow start to the work week. But in more southerly areas, light to moderate movements were frequent. This pattern continued through the remainder of the period, with precipitation and unfavorable migration conditions continuing sporadically in more northerly areas and light to moderate flights continuing in more southerly areas.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-headed Grosbeak 79% 4.5
Ash-throated Flycatcher 60% 5.6
Swainson's Hawk 65% 4.4
Brown-headed Cowbird 43% 6
Black-throated Gray Warbler 63% 3.3
Barn Swallow 30% 11.9
Lazuli Bunting 128% 1.4
Black-chinned Hummingbird 42% 4.7
Yellow Warbler 45% 4.3
Common Yellowthroat 25% 9.4
Wilson's Warbler 39% 4.5
House Wren 24% 7.1
Vaux's Swift 167% 0.7
Common Grackle 33% 4.5
Nashville Warbler 80% 1
Yellow-headed Blackbird 33% 3.9
Tree Swallow 13% 15.5
Orange-crowned Warbler 14% 11.5
Chipping Sparrow 24% 4.9
Caspian Tern 36% 2.7
Cliff Swallow 20% 6.7
American Goldfinch 14% 9.3
Cassin's Vireo 48% 1.2
Grace's Warbler 72% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Wigeon -23% 8.5
Common Goldeneye -32% 3
Fox Sparrow -35% 1.4
Ring-billed Gull -18% 5.4
Lesser Scaup -13% 5.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -14% 9.4
Canvasback -25% 1.4
Dark-eyed Junco -10% 15.5
American Pipit -16% 1.6
Horned Grebe -13% 2.8
Purple Finch -11% 4.1
Cedar Waxwing -9% 3.2
Killdeer -4% 16.2
Long-billed Curlew -12% 1.9
Bald Eagle -5% 7.2
Black-bellied Plover -9% 1.1
Varied Thrush -12% 0.5
Townsend's Warbler -5% 1.8
Dunlin -5% 1.4
Mew Gull -4% 1.5
Least Sandpiper -2% 2.7
Hermit Thrush 0% 2.5

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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