Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 8-15 April 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 15, 2016

Sora. Glenn Wyatt/Macaulay Library. 14 Apr 2016. eBird S28947932

Sora. Glenn Wyatt/Macaulay Library. 14 Apr 2016. eBird S28947932

Continental Summary

Scattered moderate movements featuring Swainson’s Hawk, Vaux’s Swift, Bank Swallow, Yellow-breasted Chat, Summer Tanager, and Western Tanager were the migration highlights for the period in the West, while moderate to locally heavy movements associated with the passage of a strong frontal boundary through the East featured Green Heron, Broad-winged Hawk, Sora, Common Nighthawk, Warbling Vireo, House Wren, Palm Warbler, and Baltimore Oriole.

Wondering what species will be migrating this coming week? Check out our forecast for the next 7 days.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A pulse of locally moderate flights in the Midwest on Saturday night, and similarly intense flights on Sunday night in parts of the Ohio River Valley, were the primary migration highlights for the opening weekend of the period. Continuing cool temperatures and the passage of a strong frontal boundary generally made for unfavorable migration conditions. After high pressure moved east in the wake of the frontal passage, however, moderate to locally heavy flights ensued in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday night. These flights continued on Wednesday night, and the extent of the movements expanded east to end the period. Thursday night saw the most widespread movement of the spring to date, with most areas participating in the flight away from the immediate coast.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 123% 15
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 135% 8.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler 75% 13.5
Palm Warbler 174% 4.5
Hermit Thrush 74% 9.4
Northern Parula 355% 1.9
Caspian Tern 127% 2.6
Chipping Sparrow 62% 18.5
Brown Thrasher 93% 8.5
Broad-winged Hawk 1032% 1.1
Tree Swallow 55% 28.9
Swamp Sparrow 75% 8.2
Barn Swallow 68% 6.4
Field Sparrow 78% 10.7
Eastern Towhee 59% 14.6
House Wren 892% 0.6
Sora 314% 0.8
White-eyed Vireo 226% 0.9
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 54% 7.3
Belted Kingfisher 41% 11.9
Green Heron 542% 0.5
Eastern Phoebe 40% 28.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 37% 10.6
Northern Flicker 32% 32.5
Yellow-throated Warbler 94% 2.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Pipit -58% 0.5
Northern Gannet -27% 0.9
Snowy Owl -66% 0
Great Cormorant -51% 0.1
American Black Duck -14% 4.8
American Wigeon -17% 2.7
Horned Lark -17% 2.2
White-winged Scoter -37% 0.3
Black Scoter -31% 0.4
Snow Bunting -60% 0
Long-tailed Duck -24% 0.7
Surf Scoter -22% 0.6
Purple Finch -13% 4.4
Dark-eyed Junco -5% 33
Golden Eagle -46% 0
Common Goldeneye -23% 1.5
Great Black-backed Gull -9% 3.9
Tundra Swan -30% 0.3
Hooded Merganser -12% 6
Sanderling -22% 0.3

Painted Bunting. Dan Jones/Macaulay Library. 13 Apr 2016. eBird S28930957

Painted Bunting.
Dan Jones/Macaulay Library. 13 Apr 2016. eBird S28930957

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Migration action was mostly west of the Mississippi on Friday and Saturday nights, with light to moderate flights, but these movements became substantially more widespread by Sunday night. These flights intensified on Monday night, albeit in a significantly less extensive fashion given intense precipitation shutting down movements between the Mississippi River and the southern Appalachians. The movements that ended the period for the region were generally similar in intensity, with many moderate to locally heavy flights; however, the distribution of these flights was scattered by locally intense precipitation, particularly in the southeastern US.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wood Thrush 116% 6.8
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 269% 3
Baltimore Oriole 270% 3.4
Blue Grosbeak 118% 4.7
Painted Bunting 193% 4.4
Summer Tanager 80% 10.4
Indigo Bunting 76% 12.3
Yellow-breasted Chat 329% 2.3
Scarlet Tanager 90% 5.4
Orchard Oriole 76% 8.7
Tennessee Warbler 86% 5.9
Common Nighthawk 540% 1.9
Warbling Vireo 589% 2.1
American Redstart 106% 4.1
Red-eyed Vireo 47% 12.5
Northern Waterthrush 151% 2.9
Swainson's Thrush 87% 3.9
Nashville Warbler 137% 3.6
Cerulean Warbler 136% 1.6
Blue-winged Warbler 88% 3.9
Western Kingbird 355% 1.5
Brown-crested Flycatcher 208% 1.6
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 69% 4.8
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 39% 12.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Green-winged Teal -40% 1.4
Swallow-tailed Kite -34% 2.3
American Kestrel -37% 2.3
Red-breasted Merganser -33% 1.7
Dark-eyed Junco -42% 1.8
Ring-billed Gull -28% 5.1
Bufflehead -53% 0.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -39% 1.4
Double-crested Cormorant -14% 17.7
Glossy Ibis -22% 2.9
Gadwall -29% 1.8
Golden-crowned Kinglet -79% 0.1
Turkey Vulture -16% 28.3
Ring-necked Duck -60% 0.3
Lesser Scaup -30% 1.5
American White Pelican -22% 2.8
Fish Crow -12% 17.7
Herring Gull -20% 2.8
Lesser Black-backed Gull -46% 0.2
Greater Scaup -71% 0.1
Hooded Merganser -49% 0.4
Pied-billed Grebe -12% 9.8
Horned Grebe -58% 0.2

Lark Sparrow. Simon Kiacz/Macaulay Library. 6 Apr 2016. eBird S28786946

Lark Sparrow. Simon Kiacz/Macaulay Library. 6 Apr 2016. eBird S28786946

Great Plains

Light to moderate movements early in the weekend were scattered across the region, but these quickly came to an end with the passage of a cold front on Sunday. Scattered light movements returned to the northern and central Plains on Monday night, expanding slightly in extent on Tuesday before reaching the period’s peak intensity on Wednesday night in the northern Plains. Thursday night saw widespread light movements, although the intensity and extent of these was certainly muted by the approach of a disturbance in the northern and central Plains.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Parula 131% 5.6
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 69% 12.9
Great Egret 75% 8.3
American Avocet 101% 4.9
Lesser Yellowlegs 71% 10.4
Lark Sparrow 123% 4.2
Chipping Sparrow 58% 14.1
Marbled Godwit 504% 2
Hudsonian Godwit 207% 2.3
Little Blue Heron 4137% 1.5
Savannah Sparrow 67% 13.2
Spotted Sandpiper 318% 1.6
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 72% 5.8
House Wren 378% 1.5
White-faced Ibis 187% 1.7
Barn Swallow 45% 10.5
Franklin's Gull 45% 8.9
Brown Thrasher 42% 12.5
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 52% 7.3
Say's Phoebe 155% 1.4
Northern Shoveler 35% 32.3
Least Sandpiper 50% 4.1
Blue-winged Teal 35% 40.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Sandhill Crane -82% 0.6
Dark-eyed Junco -43% 13.5
Purple Finch -68% 0.6
Greater White-fronted Goose -67% 0.6
Brown Creeper -51% 1.1
Snow Goose -43% 1.9
Hermit Thrush -52% 0.9
Northern Flicker -14% 22.4
Cackling Goose -91% 0.1
Rough-legged Hawk -82% 0.1
Northern Harrier -14% 8.5
American Robin -8% 51
Bufflehead -21% 7.1
Ring-necked Duck -16% 6.6
Ring-billed Gull -12% 14.6
Common Goldeneye -46% 1.1
American Golden-Plover -41% 1.8
Winter Wren -49% 0.3
Red-tailed Hawk -8% 21.6
American Tree Sparrow -32% 1.6

Yellow-breasted Chat. Don Hoechlin/Macaulay Library. 10 Apr 2016. eBird S28867034

Yellow-breasted Chat. Don Hoechlin/Macaulay Library. 10 Apr 2016. eBird S28867034

West

Localized light to moderate flights highlighted a region otherwise punctuated with scattered precipitation. As low pressure moved east, Monday night saw more intense movements in California and portions of the Desert Southwest. These continue through Wednesday nights, although the remainder of the region saw isolated light movements at best in continuing scattered precipitation (including significant snow at higher altitudes) and less favorable migration conditions. As the disturbance (a “stuck” low pressure system) responsible for this precipitation moved east, light movements began to reappear in more westerly and southerly reaches of the region on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swainson's Hawk 63% 6.3
Wilson's Warbler 71% 6.4
Ash-throated Flycatcher 63% 5.5
Black-headed Grosbeak 56% 5.2
Vaux's Swift 208% 1.1
Common Grackle 51% 5.3
Nashville Warbler 85% 2.1
Barn Swallow 45% 11.4
Lazuli Bunting 206% 1.3
Western Tanager 336% 1
Black-throated Gray Warbler 50% 4.5
White-winged Dove 46% 7.1
Cliff Swallow 43% 9.1
Yellow-breasted Chat 189% 0.9
Bank Swallow 189% 0.9
Summer Tanager 1016% 0.6
Yellow Warbler 37% 4.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 29% 10.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 26% 6.7
Yellow-headed Blackbird 24% 4.5
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 45% 5.4
MacGillivray's Warbler 126% 0.6
Black-chinned Hummingbird 35% 4.8
Bell's Vireo 38% 4.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Fox Sparrow -36% 1.4
Dark-eyed Junco -17% 17.6
Varied Thrush -39% 0.8
Sandhill Crane -25% 2.4
Common Goldeneye -22% 3.7
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -17% 7.6
Hooded Merganser -23% 2.2
Red-breasted Sapsucker -23% 1.5
Marbled Murrelet -52% 0.1
Northern Flicker -8% 23.1
Greater Scaup -17% 1.8
Rough-legged Hawk -38% 0.4
Golden-crowned Kinglet -13% 2.4
Eurasian Wigeon -42% 0.2
Common Merganser -10% 5.7
Brandt's Cormorant -18% 1.4
Surf Scoter -11% 2.9
Red-tailed Hawk -6% 22.3

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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