Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 9-16 October 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 16, 2015

Screenshot 2015-10-16 13.34.42

Short-eared Owl, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Light to moderate flights in the West last weekend featured Bufflehead, Cackling Goose, Ring-necked Duck, Herring Gull, Varied Thrush, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco, while several pulses of moderate to very heavy flights in the East featured Green-winged Teal, Bufflehead, Northern Harrier, Wilson’s Snipe, Hermit Thrush, Eastern Meadowlark, Snow Bunting, White-throated Sparrow, Swamp Sparrow, Le Conte’s Sparrow, and Field Sparrow.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Northerly flow and slightly cooler temperatures following the passage of a cold front brought moderate to very heavy flights to the Midwest and Northeast on Friday and Saturday nights. Following the passage of this front, high pressure returned to the region and quieted the movements substantially by Sunday night. Another frontal passage through the region brought moderate to heavy flights in the Midwest and mid Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday nights, with the extent of these flights reaching the coast by Wednesday night. Note that some coastal movements on Wednesday night were very heavy, particular in New Jersey and DelMarVa. Another disturbance moving through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday night spawned a new round of moderate to heavy flights, as the remainder of the region farther east saw little movement in primarily unfavorable southerly flow. Note that some localized flights occurred in the mid Atlantic, where conditions were locally favorable for the large number of migrants from previous nights’ to take flight.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruddy Duck 73% 5.5
American Coot 44% 6
American Tree Sparrow 118% 1.2
Dark-eyed Junco 23% 16.5
Franklin's Gull 84% 1.2
Lesser Scaup 57% 1.5
Redhead 63% 2.1
Fox Sparrow 41% 2.1
Bufflehead 231% 0.5
Field Sparrow 17% 8.8
Gadwall 29% 3.2
Hermit Thrush 16% 8.5
Ring-necked Duck 31% 2.3
Pied-billed Grebe 17% 8.9
Red-necked Grebe 71% 0.7
Western Kingbird 135% 0.2
Canvasback 122% 0.4
Red-winged Blackbird 8% 24.8
White-throated Sparrow 8% 33.2
American Wigeon 19% 3.8
Snow Bunting 366% 0.1
Wilson's Snipe 16% 2.7
Northern Harrier 14% 6.6
Green-winged Teal 13% 7.1
Short-eared Owl 158% 0.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chimney Swift -64% 3.8
American Redstart -77% 0.8
Black-throated Green Warbler -62% 2.3
Eastern Wood-Pewee -80% 0.6
Black-and-white Warbler -78% 0.6
Magnolia Warbler -67% 1.1
Tennessee Warbler -60% 1.6
Common Yellowthroat -50% 7.1
Scarlet Tanager -83% 0.2
Gray Catbird -40% 16.3
Black-throated Blue Warbler -55% 2.2
Swainson's Thrush -55% 1.6
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -71% 0.5
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -76% 0.5
House Wren -47% 3.6
Northern Parula -55% 1.7
Indigo Bunting -48% 3
Gray-cheeked Thrush -76% 0.2
Wood Thrush -90% 0.1
Eastern Phoebe -29% 17.9
Nashville Warbler -41% 2.8
Red-eyed Vireo -61% 1.3
Cape May Warbler -64% 0.7
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -36% 6.9
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -52% 0.8

Screenshot 2015-10-16 13.33.27

American Wigeon, Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to very heavy flights occurred across the region during the period. These movements occurred in several waves, but much of the region participate in the action and experienced excellent migration nights. The pulses of favorable conditions moved in two to three waves through the southeast, alternating with locally unfavorable conditions where migration was minimal. By the end of the period, movements were increasingly restricted to coastal areas from the Carolinas into Florida and west along the Gulf Coast through Texas.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-throated Sparrow 339% 4
Swamp Sparrow 309% 5.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler 134% 8.5
American Coot 68% 10.3
Lincoln's Sparrow 95% 5
Savannah Sparrow 89% 5.2
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 45% 10.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 48% 14.9
Palm Warbler 38% 21.5
Eastern Phoebe 37% 32.3
Song Sparrow 44% 8
White-crowned Sparrow 287% 1.3
American Wigeon 181% 1.5
Pied-billed Grebe 39% 16.1
House Wren 37% 10.5
Golden-crowned Kinglet 89% 2
Greater White-fronted Goose 1949% 0.7
Chipping Sparrow 47% 6.6
Eastern Meadowlark 65% 4.7
Northern Flicker 18% 24.9
Blue-headed Vireo 53% 3.6
Gadwall 163% 1
Vesper Sparrow 178% 0.7
Redhead 150% 1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Philadelphia Vireo -74% 0.2
Chimney Swift -29% 7.8
Wilson's Warbler -52% 0.9
Golden-winged Warbler -75% 0.1
Veery -55% 0.5
Chestnut-sided Warbler -43% 1.9
Eastern Kingbird -82% 0.1
Yellow Warbler -36% 1.8
Broad-winged Hawk -32% 1.5
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -21% 11
Roseate Spoonbill -22% 3.5
Bobolink -48% 0.8
Cattle Egret -16% 6.4
Cliff Swallow -41% 0.4
Mississippi Kite -88% 0
Wood Thrush -29% 2.4
Burrowing Owl -73% 0
Bell's Vireo -73% 0
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -25% 4.3
Least Flycatcher -53% 0.2
Common Raven -27% 1
Northern Waterthrush -24% 1.8
Yellow-breasted Chat -51% 0.2
Green Heron -18% 5.1

Savannah Sparrow, Ryan Schain

Savannah Sparrow, Ryan Schain

Great Plains

No extensive intense flights occurred at the regional scale during this period. However, northern, central, and southern Plains’ locations each experienced pulses of moderate flights. The most extensive occurred in the southern Plains to kick off last weekend, followed on Sunday night by similarly intense flights in the central Plains. Monday night saw the most extensive of the region’s flight for the week, with light to moderate flights in the north and moderate flights in the central and southern Plains. As similarly extensive but less intense movement ended the period on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Le Conte's Sparrow 164% 9.2
Nelson's Sparrow 308% 5.2
Song Sparrow 111% 23.4
Harris's Sparrow 59% 12
Savannah Sparrow 48% 18.1
Bonaparte's Gull 501% 2
Ring-necked Duck 397% 3.1
Horned Grebe 359% 3
Redhead 98% 6.6
Northern Pintail 72% 7.9
American Wigeon 82% 5.8
Swamp Sparrow 47% 9.6
Pine Siskin 57% 7.3
Dark-eyed Junco 30% 22.4
Sandhill Crane 94% 2.1
White-crowned Sparrow 35% 13.2
Franklin's Gull 31% 24
Field Sparrow 43% 9.4
American Coot 26% 22.6
Ring-billed Gull 32% 18.3
Western Meadowlark 31% 13.6
Eastern Meadowlark 28% 14.1
Northern Saw-whet Owl 134% 0.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Peregrine Falcon -100% 0
Summer Tanager -97% 0
Indigo Bunting -81% 0.7
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -96% 0.1
Snowy Egret -79% 0.9
Chimney Swift -65% 3.1
Nashville Warbler -59% 4.1
Gray Catbird -61% 2.7
Broad-winged Hawk -100% 0
Purple Finch -75% 0.5
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -95% 0
Blue-headed Vireo -57% 1.2
American Bittern -83% 0.2
Spotted Sandpiper -95% 0
Brown Thrasher -35% 4.5
Hairy Woodpecker -27% 9
Barn Swallow -35% 5.8
Tennessee Warbler -54% 1.1
Eastern Phoebe -21% 13.2
House Wren -26% 7.2
Common Nighthawk -47% 1.3
Cedar Waxwing -22% 7

Bufflehead, Ryan Schain

Bufflehead, Ryan Schain

West

Light to moderate flights were scattered across the west last weekend. Additionally, a local flight in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night that reached moderate to locally heavy intensities was a bright spot in what was otherwise a mostly quiet remainder of the period across the region. Note that some areas of the southern Rockies saw more intense flights, in some places moderate to locally heavy, particularly last weekend and to end the period on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 108% 1.7
Hermit Thrush 25% 7.8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 13% 25.4
Dark-eyed Junco 16% 30.1
Golden-crowned Sparrow 21% 18
American Crow 15% 34.3
Varied Thrush 68% 3.1
Herring Gull 21% 2.8
Ring-necked Duck 15% 5.1
Thayer's Gull 61% 0.5
American Tree Sparrow 80% 0.3
Cackling Goose 15% 3.7
American Wigeon 9% 9.8
White-throated Sparrow 16% 1.6
American Pipit 14% 6.1
Northern Mockingbird 7% 12.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Warbling Vireo -83% 0.3
Vaux's Swift -75% 0.2
Western Wood-Pewee -81% 0.2
Black-throated Gray Warbler -48% 2.7
Wilson's Warbler -57% 1.6
Yellow Warbler -44% 2.9
Violet-green Swallow -63% 0.5
Western Tanager -62% 0.7
Franklin's Gull -62% 0.4
Swainson's Hawk -50% 0.5
Sabine's Gull -65% 0.2
Barn Swallow -48% 2.7
Common Tern -65% 0.2
Swainson's Thrush -62% 0.3
Summer Tanager -59% 0.2
Red-necked Phalarope -67% 0.3
Orange-crowned Warbler -27% 8.8
Pacific-slope Flycatcher -44% 0.7
Black-chinned Hummingbird -62% 0.3
Turkey Vulture -22% 12.2
Vesper Sparrow -36% 1.2
Pectoral Sandpiper -64% 0.1

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY