Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 13-20 October 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 13, 2017

Wilson’s Snipe. Louise Auclair/Macaulay Library. eBird S39830094.

Continental Summary

Early and late period migration conditions will be favorable for light to moderate flights in the West that feature Sharp-shinned Hawk, Belted Kingfisher, Northern Flicker, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Western Meadowlark, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Fox Sparrow, while the passage of a significant frontal boundary brings moderate to very heavy flights of Cooper’s Hawk, Franklin’s Gull, Belted Kingfisher, Northern Flicker, Brown Creeper, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Savannah Sparrow, Le Conte’s Sparrow, Song Sparrow, and White-throated Sparrow to the East.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Locally moderate movements will occur in the patchwork of favorable migration conditions occurring in the region during the weekend. A large low pressure center will bring a significant change by Sunday as it moves first through the Great Lakes; moderate to very heavy flights will follow. By Monday night many areas east of the Ohio River Valley will experience moderate to very heavy flights. After this frontal passage, more marginal and unfavorable conditions build into the region that decrease both intensity and extent of movements. Some coastal areas will continue to experience locally moderate, and perhaps at times heavy, flights through the remainder of the period. However, much of the region will see light to locally moderate flights, particularly to the west of the Appalachians where southerly flow will prevail.

Winter Wren. Jay McGowan/Macaulay Library. eBird S39623205.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A weekend of locally moderate flights where migration conditions allow will give way to much more significant flights by Sunday and Monday. A cold front passing through the region will spawn heavy and very heavy flights in many areas, first to the west of the Mississippi River on Sunday and then to almost all of the remainder of the region by Monday night. Note that some areas, particularly Florida, may have potential for local concentrations and fallouts where heavy migration meets precipitation; birders should watch these conditions carefully. Moderate to locally very heavy flights continue into Wednesday night, gradually decreasing in extent from the west. By the end of the period, intense movements continue, mostly to the east of the Mississippi River.

Belted Kingfisher. Karen Lebing/Macaulay Library. eBird S39830011.

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Great Plains

The passage of a strong low pressure system on Saturday brings moderate to very heavy flights across the region on Saturday and Sunday nights. Less favorable conditions, driven by the return of southerly winds, rapidly decrease the extent and intensity of these flights to locally light to moderate movements by Monday. As high pressure continues to build in the region, migration amounts will remain largely light for the duration of the period as southerly winds and warmer temperatures prevail across the region. Some locally more intense flights may occur if wind speeds are low or winds are calm, but these flights will not be widespread.

Franklin’s Gull. Matthew Sabatine/Macaulay Library. eBird S39514185.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

West

Light to moderate flights will be scattered across the region where favorable migration conditions occur. Some of these flights, notably in the eastern Rockies on Saturday night, may be locally more intense. By Sunday and Monday these movements become even more restricted, primarily to the Desert Southwest and northern Rockies. By the middle of the work week flights are even more widely scattered, before diminishing to their smallest extents on Thursday. The end of the period sees the next disturbance arrive to the Pacific Coast, offering a glimpse of more favorable conditions to come in the next period.

Yellow-rumped Warbler. Hallie Daly/Macaulay Library. eBird S39887743.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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