Continental Summary
Marginal conditions that begin the period in the West become more favorable for increasingly widespread light to moderate movements over the course of the forecast period, while the East experiences several bouts of favorable winds and warming temperatures the kickstart movements to begin the weekend and the week. Species on the move this week will include an array of waterfowl like Greater White-fronted Goose, Blue-winged Teal, Northern Pintail, and Common Goldeneye, Turkey Vulture, Swainson’s Hawk, American Golden-Plover, Barn, Northern Rough-winged, and Tree Swallows, Pine, Lucy’s, and Hooded Warblers, and American Tree Sparrow.
Arrows show wind speed and direction 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.
West
Scattered light to locally moderate movements begin the weekend across the Great Basin and northern Rockies and portions of the Desert Southwest and interior California. Birders in the northern and southern Rockies should watch areas of precipitation closely, as they may create fallout conditions of migrant swallows and waterfowl on inland bodies of water. More favorable conditions, spawning more widespread light movements, expand in the northern and central portions of the region through the weekend, away from the immediate coast. To begin the week, the playing field changes with light to moderate movements restricted to the Desert Southwest and southeastern Rockies. But by midweek, more favorable conditions return to much of the region; from this point until the end of the forecast period light to moderate movements will become increasingly widespread across much of the region. Species on the move this week will include Northern Pintail, Common Goldeneye, Herring Gull, Rufous Hummingbird, Western Kingbird, Bell’s and Warbling Vireos, Barn and Violet-green Swallows, Yellow, Lucy’s, and Wilson’s Warblers, and Hooded Oriole.
Great Plains
The region is mostly quiet to begin the weekend, aside from the western central Plains where ameliorating temperatures and southerly winds spawn locally light to moderate movements. Conditions improve slightly on Saturday, as the potential for migration shifts eastward along with the potential for local concentrations and fallouts of early shorebirds and waterfowl on the move. But by Sunday, the northern Plains will see warming temperatures and better conditions for light to moderate movements. These conditions spread south and east to begin the week, with more widespread light to moderate movements in favorable winds and warming temperatures. However, a passing early week system shuts down most movements as it passes, limiting movements in extent and magnitude. The period end with the potential for light to moderate movements to return to the southern Plains, followed by a further expansion of favorable conditions that will spawn widespread light to moderate and even locally heavy movements by next Friday evening. Species on the move this week will include Greater White-fronted, Ross’s, and Snow Geese, Blue-winged Teal, Northern Pintail, Common Goldeneye, Great Egret, Turkey Vulture, Rough-legged Hawk, Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, American Woodcock, Barn Swallow, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Black-and-white Warbler, Common Grackle, and American Tree Sparrow.
Upper Midwest and Northeast
A burst of favorable wind conditions should spawn light to moderate (and even locally heavy) movements across much of the region on Friday night. However, the days that follow quiet substantially as cooler temperatures and unfavorable winds prevail in most areas. Where winds are light, light movements are likely, but these will be local at best. By Monday night more favorable conditions creep into the region and then expand on Tuesday, facilitating light to moderate movements in many areas west of the Appalachians. As these conditions continue to spread east, light to moderate, and even locally heavy movements, will reach the coast by Wednesday night. Some of these movements, particularly in the Great Lakes and northern Appalachians will interact with precipitation, creating local concentrations and fallouts. This will be particularly apparent on inland bodies of water, where early swallow concentration and waterfowl are likely. Conditions deteriorate to end the forecast period, with areas of light to moderate movements localized to portions of New England and New York free of precipitation and portions of the central Mississippi River valley. Some areas of New England will continue to experience favorable conditions through the end of the week, in addition to experiencing precipitation where migrants are moving. Birders in the region should watch inland bodies of water closely, and also check favorite migrant traps on Thursday, Friday and Saturday mornings. Species on the move this week will include Greater White-fronted and Snow Geese, Tundra Swan, Blue-winged Teal, Northern Pintail, Common Goldeneye, Canvasback, Common Merganser, Osprey, Bonaparte’s Gull, Northern Flicker, Eastern Phoebe, Tree Swallow, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Pine Warbler, American Tree Sparrow, and Snow Bunting.
Gulf Coast and Southeast
Widespread light to moderate movements, with areas of locally heavy migration, begin the weekend and continue in many areas through the weekend. However, a passing low pressure system brings precipitation to Texas on Saturday night and Florida and the Southeast by Sunday night. As this precipitation progresses to the east, it will encounter migration at numerous locations, spawning fallouts where it meets these migrants. Birders from the Texas coast through the Florida Panhandle should watch the progression of the system and visit local migrant traps on Sunday and Monday. By Monday night, all but the westernmost reaches of the region and possibly portions of the Florida Peninsula will experience movements, with the latter showing potential for fallouts if precipitation arrives sufficiently late to allow for migrants to depart from the Caribbean. Tuesday sees another pulse of light to moderate movements across much of the region, but this is a pulse only, as Wednesday sees these movements restricted to the immediate Atlantic Coast and southeastern coastal Plain as favorable conditions are mostly replaced by northerly flow. Slowly, favorable conditions return to end the forecast period, as portions of the region west of the Mississippi begin to experience moderate movements. Note that all nights with migration this week have the potential for locally heavy movements, particularly in Texas and portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeastern Coastal Plain. Species on the move this week will include Northern Pintail, Ring-necked Duck, Hooded Merganser, Swainson’s Hawk, American Golden-Plover, Black-necked Stilt, American Woodcock, Ring-billed Gull, Chimney Swift, Ruby-throated and Black-chinned Hummingbirds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, Eastern Phoebe, Red-eyed and Yellow-throated Vireos, Barn and Northern Rough-winged Swallows, American Pipit, Prothonotary and Hooded Warblers, Louisiana Waterthrush, Fox Sparrow.
