Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 20-27 November 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 20, 2015

Bohemian Waxwing, Chris Wood

Bohemian Waxwing, Chris Wood

Continental Summary

A late period arrival of favorable conditions will see light to moderate movements, primarily waterfowl, in the West, while the first half of the period in the East will see moderate flights scattered across the region.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

With the passage of another cold front and the arrival of more seasonally appropriate temperatures, the weekend will bring moderate to locally heavy flights in the Upper Midwest and New England. Patches of favorable conditions persist in the region and span the remainder of period from Sunday through Thanksgiving, and where conditions are favorable light to moderate flights will continue. Note in particular another substantial frontal boundary is forecast to pass through the region later in the work week, and birders should watch carefully for possible displacements of late season western vagrants. Additionally, coastal interests should monitor the winds after Thanksgiving, as coastal flights of waterfowl and near shore pelagic birds are likely on the following Friday and Saturday.

Pied-billed Grebe, Ryan Schain

Pied-billed Grebe, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

We don’t have any species to highlight here for this week.

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Snow Goose * 18-Sep 21-Nov 26-Dec - -
Common Merganser ** 13-Oct 25-Nov 22-Dec After Dec 31 -
Snowy Owl * 8-Nov 25-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Short-eared Owl * 11-Oct 27-Nov 18-Dec - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Bufflehead *** 18-Oct 1-Nov 21-Nov 4-Dec 13-Dec
Tundra Swan ** 25-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec 13-Dec
Red-throated Loon * 16-Oct 3-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec 15-Dec
Rufous Hummingbird * 27-Oct 8-Nov 22-Nov 6-Dec 16-Dec
Ash-throated Flycatcher * 30-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 11-Dec -
Hooded Merganser ** 20-Oct 4-Nov 26-Nov 9-Dec 24-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Green-winged Teal *** 8-Aug 22-Aug 27-Oct 22-Nov 10-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe *** 12-Sep 10-Oct 31-Oct 22-Nov 11-Dec
Red-necked Grebe * 6-Oct 19-Oct 7-Nov 22-Nov 8-Dec
Snow Bunting ** 12-Oct 23-Oct 9-Nov 22-Nov 1-Dec
American Wigeon * 9-Sep 5-Oct 1-Nov 23-Nov 19-Dec
Surf Scoter * 23-Sep 11-Oct 8-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec
White-winged Scoter * 1-Oct 19-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec
American Coot *** 26-Sep 14-Oct 6-Nov 26-Nov 20-Dec
Western Kingbird * 15-Oct 26-Oct 9-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Fox Sparrow *** 30-Sep 17-Oct 8-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
Ring-necked Duck ** 5-Oct 21-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The last moderate and locally heavy flights of the season occur this period, first with a flight in the southeastern coastal plain on Friday night and then with flights that are more widespread from the southern Appalachians through the Texas coastal Plains for Saturday through Monday. Light to locally moderate flights continue through the remainder of the period locally in the southeastern coastal Plain as the remainder of the region sees largely unfavorable conditions for late season movements.

Long-tailed Duck, Chris Wood

Long-tailed Duck, Chris Wood

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Short-eared Owl * 21-Nov 4-Dec - - -
American Woodcock * 22-Nov 3-Dec 24-Dec - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Red-breasted Merganser ** 4-Nov 22-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Harris's Sparrow * 6-Nov 23-Nov 15-Dec - -
Common Goldeneye * 12-Nov 27-Nov 21-Dec - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Double-crested Cormorant * 25-Sep 17-Oct 21-Nov 27-Nov 1-Dec
Ruddy Duck ** 14-Oct 29-Oct 25-Nov 15-Dec -

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Franklin's Gull ** 8-Oct 20-Oct 5-Nov 21-Nov 4-Dec
American Avocet * 1-Sep 20-Oct 5-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Dunlin * 9-Oct 23-Oct 14-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Western Meadowlark * 3-Oct 19-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec
Double-crested Cormorant * 25-Sep 17-Oct 21-Nov 27-Nov 1-Dec

Great Plains

Scattered moderate flights punctuate the weekend as a disturbance clears out of the region. However, the days that follow see a period of largely unfavorable conditions that will not spawn much late season movement. The arrival of more favorable conditions comes just before Thanksgiving, when light to locally moderate flights, primarily of waterfowl and late season sparrows and allies, will occur.

Harris's Sparrow, Tom Johnson

Harris’s Sparrow, Tom Johnson

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

We don’t have any species to highlight here for this week.

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Trumpeter Swan * 17-Nov 25-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Long-tailed Duck * 25-Oct 7-Nov 23-Nov 9-Dec 26-Dec
Ross's Goose * 19-Oct 2-Nov 23-Nov 7-Dec 19-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Coot *** 11-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct 21-Nov 10-Dec
Northern Shoveler *** 11-Oct 22-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec
Double-crested Cormorant *** 8-Sep 25-Sep 22-Oct 24-Nov 17-Dec
Horned Grebe *** 7-Oct 20-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov 9-Dec
Redhead *** 10-Oct 22-Oct 7-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Whooping Crane * 13-Oct 24-Oct 8-Nov 24-Nov 6-Dec
Common Loon ** 12-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
Canvasback *** 13-Oct 25-Oct 11-Nov 27-Nov 8-Dec

West

The beginning and end of the period will see favorable conditions across the southern half of the region, with more favorable conditions extending to more areas late in the period. These conditions will spawn locally light to moderate flights, primarily waterfowl. Of particular note, birders in the southern Rockies should watch for more intense flights on Friday night; birders in the Pacific Northwest should watch for more intense flights on Tuesday night.

Western Grebe, Chris Wood

Western Grebe, Chris Wood

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

We don’t have any species to highlight here for this week.

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Bohemian Waxwing * 22-Oct 22-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Wigeon * 3-Sep 19-Oct 20-Nov 4-Dec 16-Dec
Ring-billed Gull ** Before July 1 2-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec -
Bufflehead ** 15-Oct 29-Oct 22-Nov 3-Dec 10-Dec
Cackling Goose * 18-Sep 5-Oct 22-Nov 7-Dec 19-Dec
Canvasback * 11-Oct 28-Oct 23-Nov 4-Dec 11-Dec
Herring Gull * 22-Sep 24-Oct 26-Nov 11-Dec After Dec 31
Hooded Merganser * 18-Oct 2-Nov 26-Nov 6-Dec 14-Dec
Ross's Goose * 24-Oct 7-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec 14-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Dunlin * 22-Sep 11-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Western Grebe *** 15-Sep 14-Oct 5-Nov 24-Nov 9-Dec
California Gull ** Before July 1 14-Jul 9-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
American Tree Sparrow * 11-Oct 24-Oct 15-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Black Turnstone * 3-Jul 19-Jul 14-Sep 26-Nov 7-Dec
Bonaparte's Gull *** 13-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 9-Dec
Horned Grebe ** 21-Sep 18-Oct 11-Nov 26-Nov 6-Dec
White-winged Scoter * 20-Sep 22-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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