Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 23-30 October 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 23, 2015

Screenshot 2015-10-23 08.52.56

Snow Bunting, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

A favorable beginning and end of the period for the West sees light to moderate flights of Gadwall, Bufflehead, Long-tailed Duck, Northern Harrier, Bonaparte’s Gull, Hermit Thrush, Chestnut-collared Longspur, and American Tree Sparrow, while a late weekend and late week pulse of moderate to heavy flights in the East feature Hooded Merganser, Common Loon, American Coot, Ring-billed Gull, Snow Bunting, American Tree Sparrow, and Chipping Sparrow.

Interested to know what birds were on the move this week? Visit our analysis post.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A tease of moderate to locally heavy flights grace the eastern reaches of the region to begin the weekend, followed by more extensive but similarly intense flights on Saturday in the Upper Midwest and Sunday farther to the east. These flights continue into Tuesday but become increasingly localized to eastern and coastal areas as the next major disturbance spins toward the Midwest. With this system’s passage on Thursday, moderate to very heavy flights will occur on Thursday night in the Midwest and then farther east on Friday night. Note, this strong low pressure system will be one of the first storms with potential to deposit Ash-throated Flycatcher, Cave Swallow, and other western vagrants in the Northeast.

Purple Sandpiper, Ian Davies

Purple Sandpiper, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye *** 23-Oct 13-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Ross's Goose * 24-Oct 10-Nov 1-Dec After Dec 31 -
Harlequin Duck * 24-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov - -
Tundra Swan *** 25-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec 13-Dec
King Eider * 27-Oct 12-Nov 14-Dec After Dec 31 -
Rufous Hummingbird * 27-Oct 8-Nov 22-Nov 6-Dec 16-Dec
Purple Sandpiper * 29-Oct 13-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Ash-throated Flycatcher * 30-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 11-Dec -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Snow Bunting *** 12-Oct 23-Oct 9-Nov 22-Nov 1-Dec
Lesser Scaup ** 9-Oct 24-Oct 16-Nov 1-Dec -
Bonaparte's Gull ** 10-Oct 24-Oct 11-Nov 29-Nov 15-Dec
Common Loon *** 9-Oct 25-Oct 14-Nov 30-Nov 12-Dec
Horned Grebe *** 10-Oct 25-Oct 14-Nov 1-Dec 15-Dec
Horned Lark * 2-Oct 25-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Western Kingbird * 15-Oct 26-Oct 9-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Long-tailed Duck * 11-Oct 27-Oct After Dec 31 - -
American Tree Sparrow *** 13-Oct 28-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Black-legged Kittiwake * 14-Oct 29-Oct 19-Nov - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Rusty Blackbird ** 18-Sep 3-Oct 23-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov
Purple Finch *** 21-Sep 6-Oct 24-Oct 11-Nov 25-Nov
American Woodcock * 27-Sep 12-Oct 26-Oct 13-Nov 25-Nov
Green-winged Teal ** 8-Aug 22-Aug 27-Oct 22-Nov 10-Dec
Pine Siskin ** 24-Sep 9-Oct 29-Oct 14-Nov 27-Nov
Northern Goshawk * 3-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 16-Nov 28-Nov

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Sedge Wren ** 1-Sep 20-Sep 5-Oct 24-Oct 1-Nov
Orange-crowned Warbler ** 14-Sep 25-Sep 10-Oct 25-Oct 5-Nov
Eastern Towhee *** 12-Sep 23-Sep 6-Oct 25-Oct 7-Nov
Nelson's Sparrow * 14-Sep 25-Sep 10-Oct 25-Oct 4-Nov
Merlin ** 19-Aug 4-Sep 28-Sep 26-Oct 16-Nov
Killdeer *** - Before July 1 2-Aug 28-Oct 26-Nov
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 16-Sep 27-Sep 13-Oct 28-Oct 9-Nov
Harris's Sparrow * 8-Sep 22-Sep 12-Oct 28-Oct 10-Nov
Savannah Sparrow *** 10-Sep 24-Sep 12-Oct 29-Oct 12-Nov
Brown Creeper ** 15-Sep 28-Sep 17-Oct 30-Oct 9-Nov
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 16-Sep 28-Sep 14-Oct 30-Oct 11-Nov
Chipping Sparrow *** 18-Sep 27-Sep 9-Oct 30-Oct 13-Nov
Swamp Sparrow *** 16-Sep 28-Sep 14-Oct 30-Oct 12-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow *** 19-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct 10-Nov

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Scattered moderate flights kick off the weekend as increasingly unfavorable conditions spread across the region. This includes substantial precipitation in Texas, completely shutting down movements there. Sunday night sees a local pulse of moderate to heavy flights in Texas, following the slow departure of the rain. However, not until Wednesday and Thursday nights does the region see more extensive moderate to very heavy flights with the complete departure of low pressure to the east.

Screenshot 2015-10-23 08.49.50

Common Grackle, Ryan Schain

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Canvasback ** 23-Oct 8-Nov 7-Dec - -
Common Loon *** 23-Oct 7-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Lesser Scaup *** 23-Oct 7-Nov 4-Dec - -
Cedar Waxwing *** 24-Oct 3-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Ring-billed Gull *** 25-Oct 15-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Horned Grebe ** 27-Oct 11-Nov 7-Dec - -
Greater Scaup * 28-Oct 13-Nov 18-Dec - -
Whooping Crane * 28-Oct 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Hooded Merganser *** 29-Oct 13-Nov 11-Dec - -
Northern Gannet * 29-Oct 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Bonaparte's Gull ** 30-Oct 14-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Tundra Swan * 30-Oct 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Coot *** 5-Oct 23-Oct 20-Nov - -
Chipping Sparrow *** 12-Oct 23-Oct 17-Dec After Dec 31 -
Dunlin ** 9-Oct 23-Oct 14-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe *** 2-Oct 23-Oct 25-Nov - -
American White Pelican ** 5-Oct 24-Oct 19-Nov - -
Purple Finch * 13-Oct 25-Oct After Dec 31 - -
American Wigeon ** 9-Oct 26-Oct 21-Nov - -
Common Gallinule ** 11-Oct 26-Oct 18-Nov - -
Green-winged Teal *** 12-Oct 26-Oct 21-Nov - -
Gadwall *** 13-Oct 27-Oct 10-Dec - -
Northern Pintail ** 13-Oct 27-Oct 19-Nov - -
Pine Siskin * 13-Oct 27-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Sandhill Crane ** 8-Oct 27-Oct 15-Dec After Dec 31 -
American Pipit ** 14-Oct 29-Oct 11-Dec - -
Dark-eyed Junco *** 15-Oct 29-Oct 14-Dec - -
Eared Grebe * 11-Oct 29-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Northern Shoveler *** 15-Oct 29-Oct 24-Nov - -
Ruddy Duck *** 14-Oct 29-Oct 25-Nov 15-Dec -
Cinnamon Teal * 18-Oct 30-Oct 23-Nov - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Cooper's Hawk ** 29-Jul 11-Sep 24-Oct 11-Nov 22-Nov
Brown-headed Cowbird ** 12-Sep 26-Sep 25-Oct 11-Nov 22-Nov
Common Grackle *** 26-Sep 11-Oct 25-Oct 10-Nov 20-Nov
Caspian Tern * 26-Jul 13-Aug 26-Oct 23-Nov -
House Wren *** 21-Sep 8-Oct 27-Oct 11-Nov -
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 2-Sep 17-Sep 28-Oct 12-Nov 22-Nov

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Common Yellowthroat *** 2-Sep 16-Sep 5-Oct 23-Oct 6-Nov
Peregrine Falcon ** 9-Sep 22-Sep 8-Oct 23-Oct 3-Nov
Swainson's Hawk * - - 28-Sep 23-Oct 19-Nov
Brown Thrasher *** 3-Sep 18-Sep 5-Oct 24-Oct 7-Nov
Bay-breasted Warbler ** 7-Sep 21-Sep 7-Oct 25-Oct 6-Nov
Black-throated Blue Warbler *** 5-Sep 20-Sep 6-Oct 25-Oct 7-Nov
Blackpoll Warbler * 13-Sep 25-Sep 10-Oct 26-Oct 6-Nov
Gray Catbird *** 12-Sep 24-Sep 10-Oct 26-Oct 7-Nov
Indigo Bunting *** 15-Sep 25-Sep 9-Oct 26-Oct 8-Nov
Nashville Warbler *** 30-Aug 13-Sep 4-Oct 26-Oct 15-Nov
Black-throated Green Warbler *** 7-Sep 22-Sep 8-Oct 27-Oct 9-Nov
Painted Bunting ** 26-Sep 3-Oct 13-Oct 29-Oct 8-Nov

Great Plains

A pulse of extensive moderate to heavy flights that kicks off the weekend will become increasingly localized by Sunday night, as favorable conditions on Friday night give way to largely unfavorable conditions on Sunday night. Tuesday and Wednesday nights see another pulse of moderate to heavy, and locally very heavy, flights following the passage of substantial frontal boundary. Following this pulse of birds, the remainder of the week will be relatively quiet as unfavorable southerly flow returns.

Screenshot 2015-10-23 08.51.39

Smith’s Longspur, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Black Scoter * 24-Oct 5-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 15-Dec
Long-tailed Duck * 25-Oct 7-Nov 23-Nov 9-Dec 26-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser *** 25-Oct 5-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec 13-Dec
Cackling Goose *** 27-Oct 10-Nov 1-Dec - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Tree Sparrow *** 11-Oct 23-Oct 21-Dec - -
Ring-billed Gull *** 16-Jul 23-Oct 10-Nov 29-Nov -
Common Loon *** 12-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
Whooping Crane * 13-Oct 24-Oct 8-Nov 24-Nov 6-Dec
Canvasback *** 13-Oct 25-Oct 11-Nov 27-Nov 8-Dec
Lesser Scaup *** 14-Oct 26-Oct 13-Nov 28-Nov 11-Dec
Mallard *** 11-Oct 26-Oct 17-Nov 3-Dec -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 12-Oct 27-Oct 14-Nov 1-Dec 14-Dec
Smith's Longspur * 4-Oct 27-Oct 6-Dec - -
Rough-legged Hawk ** 8-Oct 28-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Hooded Merganser *** 17-Oct 30-Oct 20-Nov 2-Dec 11-Dec

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Pipit *** 17-Sep 4-Oct 24-Oct 12-Nov 26-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9-Sep 22-Sep 24-Oct 13-Nov 27-Nov
Song Sparrow *** 21-Sep 6-Oct 25-Oct 9-Nov 19-Nov
Greater Yellowlegs ** - 1-Aug 26-Oct 13-Nov 25-Nov
Surf Scoter * 26-Sep 10-Oct 28-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov
American Coot *** 11-Sep 3-Oct 29-Oct 21-Nov 10-Dec
Northern Harrier *** 24-Sep 11-Oct 29-Oct 12-Nov 21-Nov
Red-tailed Hawk ** 8-Sep 28-Sep 29-Oct 14-Nov 25-Nov
Fox Sparrow *** 2-Oct 14-Oct 30-Oct 12-Nov 24-Nov
Sandhill Crane *** 5-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 15-Nov 25-Nov
Tundra Swan ** 28-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct 18-Nov 30-Nov

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Golden-Plover * 6-Aug 3-Sep 27-Sep 23-Oct 19-Nov
Blue-winged Teal *** 2-Aug 18-Aug 18-Sep 25-Oct 13-Nov
Nelson's Sparrow ** 17-Sep 27-Sep 10-Oct 25-Oct 4-Nov
Marsh Wren ** 9-Sep 22-Sep 9-Oct 26-Oct 9-Nov
Northern Flicker *** 30-Aug 13-Sep 7-Oct 26-Oct 5-Nov
Sedge Wren *** 16-Sep 26-Sep 10-Oct 26-Oct 6-Nov
Vesper Sparrow *** 9-Sep 23-Sep 8-Oct 26-Oct 8-Nov
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 6-Sep 21-Sep 10-Oct 27-Oct 10-Nov
Wood Duck *** Before July 1 1-Jul 19-Aug 27-Oct 19-Nov
Lincoln's Sparrow *** 8-Sep 23-Sep 10-Oct 28-Oct 10-Nov
Spotted Towhee *** 10-Sep 22-Sep 8-Oct 28-Oct 10-Nov
Sprague's Pipit * 15-Sep 27-Sep 11-Oct 28-Oct 8-Nov
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 12-Sep 25-Sep 13-Oct 29-Oct 10-Nov
Savannah Sparrow *** 14-Sep 27-Sep 13-Oct 30-Oct 12-Nov

West

The Rockies and the Desert Southwest experience light to moderate movements to kick off the weekend. But flights become increasingly scattered and local for the days that follow until low pressure moves across the Rockies on Tuesday. Following the passage of this low pressure center, eastern portions of the region will see moderate flights, particularly along the eastern front of the Rockies. By week’s end, more extensive favorable conditions build across southern and eastern reaches of the West, spawning more extensive light to moderate flights from California east and north through the northern Rockies.

Screenshot 2015-10-23 08.47.04

Barrow’s Goldeneye, Chris Wood

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Barrow's Goldeneye ** 23-Oct 7-Nov 2-Dec - -
Brant * 23-Oct 6-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Ross's Goose ** 24-Oct 7-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec 14-Dec
Trumpeter Swan * 24-Oct 6-Nov 25-Nov - -
Common Redpoll * 28-Oct 11-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Common Goldeneye *** 30-Oct 11-Nov 2-Dec - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Snow Bunting * 13-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov - -
American Tree Sparrow * 11-Oct 24-Oct 15-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Bonaparte's Gull *** 13-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 9-Dec
Eurasian Wigeon * 28-Sep 24-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Rock Sandpiper * 10-Oct 24-Oct 14-Nov - -
Gadwall *** 6-Oct 25-Oct 18-Nov - -
Lesser Scaup *** 9-Oct 25-Oct 20-Nov - -
Canvasback ** 11-Oct 28-Oct 23-Nov 4-Dec 11-Dec
Long-tailed Duck * 14-Oct 28-Oct 18-Nov 1-Dec 10-Dec
Bufflehead *** 15-Oct 29-Oct 22-Nov 3-Dec 10-Dec
Northern Harrier ** 12-Aug 29-Oct 20-Nov - -
Rough-legged Hawk * 7-Oct 30-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Rusty Blackbird * 16-Oct 30-Oct 18-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Chestnut-collared Longspur * 17-Sep 3-Oct 25-Oct 12-Nov 30-Nov
Golden-crowned Kinglet * 14-Sep 3-Oct 26-Oct 11-Nov 21-Nov
Belted Kingfisher *** 15-Aug 5-Sep 27-Oct 10-Nov -
Hermit Thrush * 21-Sep 5-Oct 28-Oct 7-Nov 15-Nov
Marsh Wren * 19-Aug 27-Sep 30-Oct 21-Nov -

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Red-naped Sapsucker * 8-Sep 22-Sep 9-Oct 24-Oct 4-Nov
Sharp-tailed Sandpiper * 12-Sep 24-Sep 8-Oct 24-Oct 4-Nov
Magnolia Warbler * 15-Sep 26-Sep 10-Oct 26-Oct 6-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow *** 4-Sep 20-Sep 14-Oct 26-Oct 6-Nov
Townsend's Warbler ** 12-Aug 30-Aug 30-Sep 27-Oct 10-Nov
Red-breasted Nuthatch ** 29-Jul 10-Aug 2-Sep 28-Oct 14-Nov
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 2-Sep 26-Sep 17-Oct 29-Oct 8-Nov
Golden-crowned Sparrow ** 12-Sep 27-Sep 21-Oct 30-Oct 7-Nov

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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