Ring-necked Duck. Peter Seubert/Macaulay Library. eBird S34919705.

Continental Summary

A favorable weekend forecast will see light to locally moderate flights of numerous species of waterfowl, Tree Swallow, Northern Rough-winged Swallow, and Ruby-crowned Kinglet in the West, while a weekend blast of winter cold precedes a serious of much more favorable spring like days with moderate to locally heavy flights of waterfowl, Killdeer, Eastern Phoebe, and Red-winged Blackbird in the East.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Please note that photographs and other digital media showing birds come from the Macaulay Library, which receives credit along with the photographer/observer in the media caption as part of a new initiative that allows public contribution, access and use of natural history media.

Finally, and new for Spring 2017, our friend Kyle Horton of the Radar Aeroecology Lab at Oklahoma University created a new set of images depicting spring bird movements in the Gulf of Mexico region as part of an analysis that he is leading as part of our ongoing collaboration. This feature appears in the Gulf Coast and Southeast region forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and Northeast	Gulf Coast and Southeast
Great Plains	West

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A quite and cold start to the weekend will yield little or no movement in most areas. But warmer air and more southerly flow return quickly to the Midwest by Saturday and Sunday and then eventually to the entirety of the region by Monday. Moderate to locally heavy flights will follow in this warm wave. And following this warm wave will be a significant frontal boundary that will shut down most movements by Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered light to moderate flights may occur to end the period in the pockets of marginal or locally favorable conditions primarily in the Midwest.

Red-winged Blackbird. Mario Pelletier/Macaulay Library. eBird S34919394.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A striking duality defines the region to begin the weekend, with favorable migration conditions spawning moderate flights in Texas and west of the Mississippi River and unfavorable conditions to the east spawning little if any local movement. But beginning on Sunday increasingly favorable conditions for migration spread east and spawn moderate flights that are significantly more widespread over the region. Scattered precipitation has the look of fallout conditions, but generally unfavorable conditions on Sunday night suggest this is mostly wishful thinking; however, Monday night is forecast to have more favorable flight conditions from points further south, and an intensifying frontal boundary is worth watching for those keen on experiencing a very early season concentration of migrants from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle. With the passage of this frontal boundary, unfavorable conditions build into the region for most of the remainder of the period.

Blue-winged Teal. Bill Uttenweiler/Macaulay Library. eBird S34917890.

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Weekly mean spring nocturnal migration activity and direction of movement in the Gulf of Mexico region for the week of 2-8 March, 1995 to 2015. Circular buffers represent migration activity (L: light, M: moderate, H:heavy) scaled to radar reflectivity (a measure of biological activity) and arrows represent mean track direction derived from radial velocity.

Great Plains

A broad area of favorable migration conditions blankets the region for the weekend, with moderate to locally heavy flights in most areas. By Monday night, however, a frontal passage will shut down most of these flights. The remainder of the period sees pockets of marginal and favorable conditions for migrants to move, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday nights in the central and southern Plains; these movements will be mostly moderate and local.

Killdeer. David Hall/Macaulay Library. eBird S34918031.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

West

This early March weekend will see marginal to favorable migration conditions across much of the region with light to locally moderate movements. Scattered precipitation and pockets of unfavorable winds with cooler temperatures will significantly restrict the extents and intensities of these flights as the work week begins, with these varied conditions continuing through the end of the period. The northern and southeastern reaches of the region will experience more favorable conditions, in general, with areas of light to moderate flights continuing for the entirety of the week in some of these locations.

Northern Pintail. Mark Ludwig/Macaulay Library. eBird S34927361.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

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Farnsworth, Van Doren, and Horton