Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 30 May – 6 June 2014

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab May 30, 2014

Continental Summary

The last movements of the spring, mostly light to moderate, occur across the continent as the season slips into more summer-like patterns. Species on the move this week will include Semipalmated Plover, Dunlin, Semipalmated and Least Sandpipers, and some of the last of the later songbird migrants like Alder and Yellow-bellied Flycatchers, Red-eyed and Philadelphia Vireos, Gray-cheeked Thrush, and Blackpoll and Mourning Warblers.


Mostly favorable conditions for the last of the spring’s migrants to move in light to moderate numbers are in place for much of the forecast period for portions of the southern Pacific Coast and Desert Southwest through the central Rockies. Some precipitation will shut down what movements occur from the southern Rockies north and west into the Pacific Northwest. The remainder of the region experiences marginal conditions, and movements will be increasingly light in these areas. By the end of the forecast period, most spring migrants will be in evidence only in the farthest northern reaches of the West, as the remainder of the region settles into breeding and post-breeding season. Species on the move this week will include Red-necked Phalarope, Common Nighthawk, Wilson’s Warbler, Townsend’s Warbler, Yellow Warbler, and Western Tanager.

Great Plains

Changeable conditions over the course of the forecast period close the spring season, with moderate movements likely in areas where precipitation does not fall regardless of wind direction if wind speeds are low. These movements will be most apparent to begin and to end the week in the northern Plains, and primarily from midweek to the end of the period in the southern Plains. Note that some late season concentrations are possible, particularly in the northern and central Plains, where the last pushes of migrants of the season encounter precipitation. Species on the move this week will include Spotted Sandpiper, Semipalmated Sandpiper, Least Sandpiper, Stilt Sandpiper, Least Flycatcher, Alder Flycatcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Tennessee Warbler, Blackpoll Warbler, American Redstart, Wilson’s Warbler, Nashville Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Mourning Warbler, and Rose-breasted Grosbeak.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A patchwork of favorable and unfavorable persists through the last days of spring migration for most species, as moderate movements become increasingly light and infrequent during the forecast period. Sunday and Monday evenings are the most likely evenings for more extensive movements, as the season winds down to breeding and post-breeding activities. Species on the move this week will include Black-bellied Plover, Semipalmated Plover, Semipalmated Sandpiper, Least Sandpiper, Dunlin, Philadelphia Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Blackpoll Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Wilson’s Warbler, Canada Warbler, Tennessee Warbler, Northern Waterthrush, and White-crowned Sparrow.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Precipitation scattered across the region during the forecast period coupled with the late date will keep migration to light to locally moderate levels. On in western portions of the region will moderate levels remain likely during the course of the week, as the last migrants race north to breeding grounds. These movements will be increasingly apparent in the mid to late week, as the season winds down and more summer like patterns persist across the region (i.e. insects, bats, warm temperatures). Species on the move this week will include Semipalmated Sandpiper, White-rumped Sandpiper, Dunlin, Sanderling, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Blackpoll Warbler, Mourning Warbler, and Yellow Warbler.