Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 7-14 November 2014

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 07, 2014

Continental Summary

Late season movements in the West will be sparse, but more widespread light to moderate movements occur in the East during an extended period of favorable conditions. Species on the move this week will include Tundra Swan, Snow Goose, Brant, Cackling Goose, Canvasback, Gadwall, Common Goldeneye, Barrow’s Goldeneye, Hooded Merganser, Red-breasted Merganser, Common Merganser, American Pipit, and American Tree Sparrow.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.


Although the forecast period begins with favorable conditions, mostly light and locally moderate movements are likely. And after this initial bout of favorable migration conditions, the situation deteriorates for much of the week as a patchwork of favorable and unfavorable conditions shifts across and around the West. Light movements will become more localized during these shifts, and the remaining chance for more widespread movements comes to end the week. Species on the move this week will include Common Goldeneye, Barrow’s Goldeneye, Tundra Swan, Snow Goose, Brant, Red-breasted Merganser, Bufflehead, Ross’s Goose, Hooded Merganser, Trumpeter Swan, Lesser Scaup, and Rough-legged Hawk.

Great Plains

Highly favorable conditions begin the weekend, facilitating widespread light to moderate movements. Some of these may be locally heavy in the central and southern Plains. After these movements, conditions become more marginal, keeping more birds grounded than flying. But more favorable conditions return by early in the work week, and continue for several days before disappearing to a new round of marginal conditions. During these favorable northerly winds and cooler temperatures, light and locally moderate movements will be widespread. Note that the potential for a significant storm passing mid week may create a major pulse of land birds, depending on the extent and intensity of associated winter weather. Species on the move this week will include Common Goldeneye, Red-breasted Merganser, Common Merganser, Cackling Goose, Ross’s Goose, Bufflehead, Hooded Merganser, Bald Eagle, Rusty Blackbird, and Northern Shrike.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Movements will be mostly from the Appalachians east to begin the weekend, with moderate flights occurring in favorable and cool conditions. Some coastal flights may be heavy and include morning flight on Saturday morning. More marginal conditions follow these movements, but the passage of a strong low pressure system by Tuesday or Wednesday brings another pulse of favorable conditions and widespread light to moderate movements through the end of the period. Coastal locations will experience morning flights to end the period, most likely on Thursday and Friday mornings. Species on the move this week will include Tundra Swan, Purple Sandpiper, Common Goldeneye, Harlequin Duck, Glaucous Gull, American Tree Sparrow, Hooded Merganser, and Red-breasted Merganser.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Mostly favorable conditions for the first half of the weekend will allow light to moderate movements to continue in many areas. By Sunday night several nights of much less favorable conditions begin for most of the region, with the next chance for a movement coming to Texas by Tuesday night. These arriving favorable conditions usher in a period of favorable conditions that last for the remainder of the week. Although favorable conditions will be widespread, the late date of the season means that even widespread movements will be primarily light to moderate during these flights. Species on the move this week will include Bufflehead Hooded Merganser, Lesser Scaup, Ring-billed Gull, Red-breasted Merganser, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, Snow Goose, American Pipit, Canvasback, and Gadwall.