Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 9-16 September 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 09, 2016

White-eyed Vireo. Deborah Kral/Macaulay Library. eBird S31360683

White-eyed Vireo. Deborah Kral/Macaulay Library. eBird S31360683

Continental Summary

Favorable conditions for moderate movements featuring Northern Shoveler, Eared Grebe, Belted Kingfisher, Warbling Vireo, Orange-crowned Warbler, Townsend’s Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, and Savannah Sparrow highlight the beginning and end of the work week in the West, while the East experiences two pulses of moderate to heavy flights over the weekend and in the middle of the work week featuring Blue-winged Teal, Northern Flicker, Eastern Wood-Pewee, White-eyed Vireo, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, American Redstart, and Chestnut-sided Warbler.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Additionally, please note that photographs and other digital media showing birds come from the Macaulay Library, which receives credit along with the photographer/observer in the media caption as part of a new initiative that allows public contribution, access and use of natural history media.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

The summer like warm and moist air prevalent across much of the region finally departs over the weekend, bringing more favorable winds and cooler and dry air that will spawn moderate to heavy flights across the region. These will begin in the Upper Midwest on Saturday night and spread to the Atlantic by Sunday night. Some of these flights will be locally very heavy. The beginning of the work week sees another round of warming, with the next favorable conditions arriving with another frontal boundary by Tuesday night. Conditions for moderate to heavy flights return to much of the region with this frontal passage, most extensively on Wednesday and to a lesser extent Thursday nights.

Eastern Wood-Pewee. Yves Dugré/Macaulay Library. eBird S31449775

Eastern Wood-Pewee. Yves Dugré/Macaulay Library. eBird S31449775

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A pulse of moderate to heavy migration will come to the region on Saturday and Sunday nights, as a cooler air mass with more favorable flight conditions arrives. A similar occurrence is on tap for Wednesday night, when another round of extensive moderate to heavy flights will occur. Other nights of the period will see localized moderate and isolated heavy flights, as mostly marginal conditions prevail between the pulse of favorable migration conditions.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher. Mark Dennis/Macaulay Library. eBird S31467880

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher. Mark Dennis/Macaulay Library. eBird S31467880

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Great Plains

Moderate to locally very heavy flights kick off the weekend, but return flow shuts down these intensities rather quickly on Saturday and Sunday nights. Sunday to Wednesday will be another active period, with moderate to heavy flights in many areas; however, these will decrease with each passing night, as more marginal conditions build into the region with approaching high pressure. These marginal condition become generally unfavorable for the remainder of the period, with southerly flow and warmer temperatures prevailing, keeping most migrants where they are on the ground. Some areas may see locally moderate flights despite the prevalence of southerly and warm flow, if winds are lighted than forecast.

Northern Flicker. Tom Johnson/Macaulay Library. eBird S31484533

Northern Flicker. Tom Johnson/Macaulay Library. eBird S31484533

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

West

Favorable conditions from the Pacific Coast south and east around the perimeter of the region and into the eastern grasslands will spawn light to moderate flights in many areas to kickoff the weekend. Similar intensities of movements are likely on Sunday and Monday nights, mostly in the northern half of the region. So, too, will similar intensities occur on Thursday night to end the period, particularly from the Rockies west to the Pacific coast.

Warbling Vireo. Sami LaRocca/Macaulay Library. eBird S31363359

Warbling Vireo. Sami LaRocca/Macaulay Library. eBird S31363359

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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