Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 10-17 November 2017

Heather Wolf The Cornell Lab Nov 18, 2017

Red-throated Loon. Richard Aracil/Macaulay Library. eBird S40354041.

Continental Summary

Local light to moderate flights were scattered across the West and feature numerous waterfowl in this late season period, while the pulses of moderate flights in the Great Plains and Southeast featured many species of waterfowl, Turkey Vulture, Bonaparte’s Gull, Eastern Bluebird, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Cedar Waxwing, and Dark-eyed Junco.

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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Local light and moderate movements punctuated an otherwise increasingly quiet late season period. Most notable flights occurred on Friday and Monday in the mid Atlantic and Sunday and Wednesday in the Midwest.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye 211% 6.8
Bufflehead 96% 18.9
Hooded Merganser 102% 13.6
Common Merganser 70% 6.9
Tundra Swan 163% 3.8
Red-breasted Merganser 62% 6.9
Horned Grebe 71% 5.6
Ring-billed Gull 13% 30.1
Red-throated Loon 56% 4.1
Long-tailed Duck 59% 3.8
Common Loon 18% 10.1
Canvasback 70% 1.6
Mallard 9% 35.2
Lesser Scaup 30% 4.4
Ring-necked Duck 17% 6.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 31% 4
American Black Duck 10% 10
Ruddy Duck 10% 7.9
Horned Lark 15% 2
Snow Bunting 12% 2.3
Redhead 11% 2.9
Belted Kingfisher 6% 11.1
Snow Goose 10% 1.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-rumped Warbler -51% 9
Chipping Sparrow -71% 1.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -61% 4.2
Red-winged Blackbird -46% 9
Greater Yellowlegs -71% 1.4
American Robin -35% 22.5
Wood Duck -55% 3
Double-crested Cormorant -38% 12.8
Dunlin -57% 2.3
Golden-crowned Kinglet -43% 8.9
White-crowned Sparrow -66% 1.6
Common Grackle -48% 4.1
Swamp Sparrow -45% 4.7
Great Egret -66% 1.3
Green-winged Teal -43% 3.9
Turkey Vulture -34% 10.3
White-throated Sparrow -20% 23
Song Sparrow -22% 22
Killdeer -44% 3.3
Purple Finch -49% 1.2
Northern Pintail -44% 2.2
Hermit Thrush -39% 2.9
American Crow -9% 41.7

Hooded Merganser. Dan Vickers/Macaulay Library. eBird S40417590.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Pulse of moderate to locally heavy movements occurred on several occasions during the period, representing arrivals of some of the last pulses of wintering and passage migrants into and through the region. Particularly widespread were movements on Friday night, primarily east of the Mississippi River. Sunday and Wednesday nights saw more westerly distribution of these movements, albeit in lesser intensities. Light to locally moderate movements ended the period, with flights from Texas east through the Atlantic coastal plains.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hooded Merganser 357% 6
Bufflehead 688% 5.1
Lesser Scaup 269% 6.6
Ring-billed Gull 132% 13.1
Dark-eyed Junco 118% 8.1
Common Loon 227% 3.2
Bonaparte's Gull 253% 2.2
American Robin 44% 15.7
American Goldfinch 54% 11.2
Ring-necked Duck 77% 6.5
Red-breasted Merganser 516% 1.3
Horned Grebe 296% 1.5
Canvasback 172% 1.9
Redhead 89% 3.8
Ruddy Duck 75% 5.2
Hermit Thrush 54% 7.1
Orange-crowned Warbler 45% 10.9
Cedar Waxwing 87% 3.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow -91% 0.4
Gray Catbird -33% 10.4
Common Grackle -31% 8.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -69% 0.6
Brown Thrasher -27% 5.5
Eastern Meadowlark -21% 5.8
Brown-headed Cowbird -23% 4
Long-billed Dowitcher -33% 1.2
Broad-winged Hawk -73% 0.1
Black-and-white Warbler -24% 3.3
Indigo Bunting -34% 1.5
White-faced Ibis -33% 1.1

Eastern Bluebird. Charlotte Croshaw/Macaulay Library. eBird S40397930.

Great Plains

A quiet start to the weekend eventually yielded to a pulse of moderate flights in the central and southern Plains on Sunday night. A similar pulse occurred on Wednesday night, with slightly greater intensities in the southern Plains. But, aside from flights in these areas, the region was generally quiet from a migration perspective probably at the hands of date of season and multiple passing disturbances with precipitation.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye 617% 14.6
Horned Grebe 344% 11.2
Bufflehead 147% 19.4
Common Merganser 315% 5.5
Red-breasted Merganser 222% 3.9
Golden-crowned Kinglet 99% 5.7
Lesser Scaup 46% 13.8
Black Scoter 320% 3
Mallard 24% 38.1
Canvasback 51% 8.5
Barrow's Goldeneye 18806% 1.8
Eastern Bluebird 21% 19.3
American Coot 21% 22.2
Carolina Wren 20% 17.1
Wood Duck 76% 3.9
Belted Kingfisher 33% 10.3
Canada Goose 15% 35.7
Cackling Goose 34% 8.3
Common Loon 35% 6.4
Red-shouldered Hawk 48% 4.9
Eared Grebe 57% 2.9
Turkey Vulture 133% 2.8
American Kestrel 20% 11.5
Great Blue Heron 13% 19.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Wigeon -50% 4.3
Chipping Sparrow -68% 1.4
Eastern Meadowlark -65% 1.8
Killdeer -46% 6.7
Green-winged Teal -45% 5.7
Savannah Sparrow -61% 2.2
Northern Pintail -49% 3.5
Greater Yellowlegs -72% 0.7
American Avocet -93% 0.1
Northern Shoveler -34% 9
Cooper's Hawk -51% 2.4
Gadwall -27% 11.6
Double-crested Cormorant -20% 17.1
Pine Siskin -36% 4
American Robin -17% 26.4
Merlin -55% 0.9
Wilson's Snipe -50% 1.3
Marsh Wren -82% 0.2
Mourning Dove -21% 11.6

Brant. Paul Fenwick/Macaulay Library. eBird S40459582.

West

The period was generally quiet, with several significant weather systems and the late season date keeping migration at minima. One notable exception, as is typical for the date and the region, occurred in California. Saturday and Tuesday nights saw light to moderate flights in the Central Valley, where movements often continue in similar intensity to these late season dates.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye 387% 10.6
Lesser Scaup 35% 6.9
Common Merganser 39% 5.8
Heermann's Gull 43% 3.2
Barrow's Goldeneye 71% 1.6
Bufflehead 24% 16.3
Snow Goose 36% 4.2
Brant 148% 1
Lesser Goldfinch 14% 15.5
Canvasback 26% 3
Hooded Merganser 22% 6.8
Red-breasted Merganser 26% 2.9
Pacific Loon 30% 2.1
American Coot 8% 24.9
Herring Gull 19% 3.6
Tundra Swan 26% 1.9
Loggerhead Shrike 18% 3.2
Sandhill Crane 18% 2.6
Bald Eagle 8% 7.7
Peregrine Falcon 11% 3.2
Rough-legged Hawk 12% 2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Fox Sparrow -19% 7.3
Tree Swallow -55% 0.5
Bewick's Wren -16% 11.7
Western Sandpiper -34% 1.3
Song Sparrow -13% 25.2
Elegant Tern -74% 0.2
Western Meadowlark -18% 6.7
Savannah Sparrow -20% 5.4
Belted Kingfisher -15% 10.2
Golden-crowned Sparrow -14% 13.8
Western Grebe -16% 9.1
Killdeer -16% 10
Brown Creeper -19% 4
Red-breasted Nuthatch -14% 9.4
Wood Duck -22% 2.2
Red-necked Grebe -29% 1.3
Least Sandpiper -17% 3.8
Green-winged Teal -13% 8.2
Horned Grebe -17% 3.6
Brown-headed Cowbird -28% 1.1
Black-necked Stilt -17% 2.7
Long-billed Dowitcher -20% 2.1

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