Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 17-24 March 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Mar 24, 2017

Common Loon. Mark Stephenson/Macaulay Library. eBird S34945708.

Continental Summary

The West experienced light to moderate movements early in the period, primarily in the southern reaches of the region, featuring Osprey, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Western Kingbird, Barn Swallow, Warbling Vireo, and Grace’s Warbler, while the central and southern portions of the East experienced light to moderate flights featuring Great Blue Heron, Osprey, American Golden-Plover, Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, Black-chinned Hummingbird, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, and Louisiana Waterthrush. The greatest extent of these movements occurred in the West on 17-18 March and in the East on 23-24 March.

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Upper Midwest and Northeast

Another late season blast of wintry weather kept migrants grounded for most of the weekend. By Sunday, light to moderate movement returned to the Central Mississippi River valley and portions of the Upper Midwest. However, another pulse of unfavorable conditions kept most movements light and local through much of the remainder of the period. A change arrived on Thursday night, when southerly flow and warmer temperatures spawned more widespread moderate flights in the central and southern portions of the region.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Great Blue Heron 36% 14.2
Tree Swallow 48% 5.1
Eastern Phoebe 35% 6.6
Double-crested Cormorant 32% 5
Common Loon 37% 4.8
Osprey 61% 2.5
Wood Duck 22% 11.4
Blue-winged Teal 43% 3.1
Belted Kingfisher 25% 5.7
American Robin 13% 49.6
Lesser Scaup 20% 9
Turkey Vulture 12% 19.9
Pied-billed Grebe 18% 7.3
Horned Grebe 21% 6.2
Hooded Merganser 13% 14.5
Sandhill Crane 24% 5.1
Great Egret 64% 0.9
Common Grackle 11% 29.1
Red-breasted Merganser 17% 8.2
Field Sparrow 26% 2.7
Pectoral Sandpiper 84% 0.6
Brown-headed Cowbird 16% 9.2
Golden-crowned Kinglet 23% 3.4
American Wigeon 15% 7.7
Song Sparrow 8% 37.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ross's Goose -56% 0.2
White-throated Sparrow -4% 19
White-crowned Sparrow -7% 1.7
American Goldfinch -2% 20.6
American Tree Sparrow -3% 10.7
Red-breasted Nuthatch -4% 5.2
Harlequin Duck -27% 0.2
Barrow's Goldeneye -26% 0.1
Greater White-fronted Goose -7% 1.3
Snow Goose -5% 2.1
Fox Sparrow -2% 7.6
Cackling Goose -2% 0.6
Horned Lark 0% 4
Common Raven 1% 2.4
Downy Woodpecker 0% 31.5
Brant 4% 1.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 3% 1.8
Northern Harrier 3% 3.5
American Black Duck 2% 8.8
Yellow-rumped Warbler 3% 3.1
White-breasted Nuthatch 1% 28.3

Least Tern. Susan Strasevicz/Macaulay Library. eBird S35347587.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to moderate flights were the norm for the region to begin the period, with a large pulse of migrants departing from central Florida on Friday and smaller but more extensive pulses on Saturday and Sunday primarily west of the Mississippi River. Similarly intense movements occurred for the remainder of the period, reaching their greatest extents on Thursday night. Note, however, that much of Texas did not see significant flights on this night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-chinned Hummingbird 70% 2
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 42% 3
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 30% 7
Black-necked Stilt 37% 4.2
Brown-headed Cowbird 21% 11.4
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 73% 1.5
Red-eyed Vireo 162% 0.6
Louisiana Waterthrush 59% 1.7
Yellow-throated Vireo 58% 1.7
Brown Thrasher 15% 12.5
Swainson's Hawk 104% 0.6
Eastern Towhee 10% 15.6
Barn Swallow 19% 8.7
Ash-throated Flycatcher 66% 0.7
Hooded Warbler 115% 0.4
Fish Crow 8% 21.3
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck 15% 5.5
Lesser Goldfinch 20% 3.2
House Wren 14% 5.2
Broad-winged Hawk 67% 0.6
Golden-cheeked Warbler 54% 0.7
Lark Sparrow 31% 1.5
White-eyed Vireo 10% 12.7
Least Tern 110% 0.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Gadwall -35% 3.5
Ring-necked Duck -36% 2.7
Ring-billed Gull -21% 9.2
American White Pelican -26% 3.7
Orange-crowned Warbler -18% 4.5
American Wigeon -30% 1.6
Sandhill Crane -18% 3.8
Green-winged Teal -19% 3.7
Yellow-rumped Warbler -9% 33.6
Bufflehead -19% 3.4
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -15% 4.9
American Kestrel -12% 8.7
Eastern Phoebe -9% 19.1
Lesser Scaup -15% 3
Cooper's Hawk -13% 3.8
Northern Pintail -63% 0.2
Great Egret -6% 22.7
Pied-billed Grebe -7% 14.9
Bald Eagle -9% 7.5
Forster's Tern -10% 5.4

Yellow-throated Warbler. Charles Lyon/Macaulay Library. eBird S35407427.

Great Plains

Scattered light to moderate movements occurred in the central and southern Plains mid to late weekend. This was, perhaps, the highlight of the first half of the period, as unfavorable conditions kept most migrants grounded on other nights. As low pressure advanced through the region on Thursday, southerly flow in its path spawned light to moderate flights,; but these were localized in Oklahoma and Kansas, primarily in the eastern and central portions of these states.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lesser Yellowlegs 126% 6.4
Turkey Vulture 81% 20.9
American Golden-Plover 179% 3.6
Pectoral Sandpiper 152% 4.4
Wilson's Snipe 81% 6.9
Blue-winged Teal 63% 22
Greater Yellowlegs 70% 8.6
Fish Crow 104% 3.9
Common Grackle 50% 24.3
Baird's Sandpiper 110% 2.2
Vesper Sparrow 112% 2.1
Great Egret 105% 2.4
Franklin's Gull 84% 2.8
Least Sandpiper 78% 3.5
Cinnamon Teal 96% 2.4
Double-crested Cormorant 26% 12.5
Field Sparrow 47% 5.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 29% 9.5
American Avocet 110% 0.8
Tree Swallow 52% 4.3
Western Meadowlark 21% 17.1
Savannah Sparrow 36% 7.2
Yellow-throated Warbler 188% 0.4
Killdeer 14% 33.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye -25% 6.2
Snow Goose -21% 8.4
White-throated Sparrow -25% 4.8
American Goldfinch -18% 13.1
Canvasback -23% 4
Rough-legged Hawk -51% 1.1
Bufflehead -13% 13
Redhead -13% 9.5
Ross's Goose -26% 2
Sandhill Crane -18% 5.6
Cackling Goose -21% 4
White-crowned Sparrow -14% 6.4
White-breasted Nuthatch -11% 11
Brown Creeper -23% 2.4
Cedar Waxwing -22% 2.6
Greater White-fronted Goose -15% 4.1
Red-headed Woodpecker -30% 1.3
American Wigeon -9% 12.4
Eastern Towhee -53% 0.2
Downy Woodpecker -7% 19.9
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -30% 1.2
Common Merganser -14% 4.4
Red-shouldered Hawk -15% 3.3
Bald Eagle -9% 10.5

Wilson’s Warbler. Jerry Ting/Macaulay Library. eBird S35420521.

West

Light to moderate flights were aloft from central California south and east through the Desert Southwest to kickoff the weekend. The intensity of these flights gradually diminished in the days that followed, with their extents following suite. The northern half of the region experienced generally unfavorable migration conditions during this time. By Wednesday and Thursday night, most of the region experienced marginal or unfavorable conditions for migration, with light and isolated movements at best for the remainder of the period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Rufous Hummingbird 57% 6
Western Kingbird 80% 2.7
Hooded Oriole 62% 3.1
Wilson's Warbler 86% 1.7
Violet-green Swallow 32% 7.5
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 68% 2.4
Barn Swallow 38% 4.3
Common Grackle 200% 0.7
Bullock's Oriole 73% 1.6
Tree Swallow 21% 11.6
Warbling Vireo 83% 0.9
Western Meadowlark 18% 12.8
Red-breasted Nuthatch 22% 5.3
Gray Hawk 112% 0.5
Purple Finch 24% 4.1
Brown-headed Cowbird 28% 2.3
Black-capped Chickadee 10% 14.8
Osprey 22% 3
Grace's Warbler 218% 0.2
Wood Duck 16% 3.9
Orange-crowned Warbler 14% 7.3
Cliff Swallow 20% 2.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hermit Thrush -22% 2.8
Great Egret -19% 5.4
Common Goldeneye -15% 7.2
Black Phoebe -14% 14.2
Phainopepla -18% 3.2
Western Bluebird -13% 8
Mew Gull -20% 1.9
American Tree Sparrow -63% 0.2
Varied Thrush -34% 0.9
Mountain Chickadee -14% 3.2
Rock Wren -20% 1.6
Northern Mockingbird -9% 10.6
Savannah Sparrow -13% 3.4
Tundra Swan -17% 1.5
California Gull -10% 6
Herring Gull -18% 1.7
Northern Pintail -11% 5.2
Ring-billed Gull -10% 7.7
Loggerhead Shrike -17% 1.5
Golden Eagle -14% 1.5
American Kestrel -6% 8.7

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