Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 26 August – 2 September 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 02, 2016

 

Swanson's Thrush. Alex Lamoreaux/Macaulay Library. eBird S31328514

Swanson’s Thrush. Alex Lamoreaux/Macaulay Library. eBird S31328514

Continental Summary

A busy week of migration across the nation featured light to moderate movements in the West and moderate to heavy flights in the East, with Northern Pintail, Caspian Tern, Swanson’s Thrush, Tennessee Warbler, Nashville Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Baltimore Oriole, and Lincoln’s Sparrow on the move.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our migration forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Several significant movements occurred during this forecast period, including widespread moderate to locally heavy flights on Friday, Monday, and Thursday nights. In addition, the Upper Midwest experienced some heavy to locally very heavy flights on Monday and Tuesday night, particularly in the western Great Lakes. These movements were associated with the passage of several smaller disturbances and a frontal boundary, and generally conditions for flights were marginal to highly favorable for migration in many areas.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Magnolia Warbler 132% 7.4
Swainson's Thrush 331% 3.4
Blackpoll Warbler 311% 2.6
Bay-breasted Warbler 386% 1.9
Warbling Vireo 43% 8.2
Black-throated Green Warbler 79% 4.1
American Redstart 34% 14.1
Northern Parula 135% 2.4
Tennessee Warbler 62% 4.4
Black-throated Blue Warbler 102% 1.9
Cape May Warbler 141% 1.6
Wilson's Warbler 81% 1.9
Philadelphia Vireo 130% 1.2
Palm Warbler 256% 0.9
Nashville Warbler 46% 3.4
American Golden-Plover 84% 1.7
White-breasted Nuthatch 19% 34
Red-bellied Woodpecker 22% 25.3
Yellow-throated Vireo 43% 2.9
Blackburnian Warbler 43% 3.3
Red-breasted Nuthatch 22% 8.2
Killdeer 17% 21.2
Ovenbird 31% 3.2
Blue Jay 11% 49.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Kingbird -50% 7
Bank Swallow -43% 2.3
Barn Swallow -36% 18.7
Purple Martin -41% 2.8
Baltimore Oriole -34% 8.6
Black Tern -48% 1
Tricolored Heron -65% 0.3
Tree Swallow -25% 13.8
Yellow Warbler -33% 3
Indigo Bunting -27% 5.5
Glossy Ibis -49% 0.6
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -26% 2.9
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -19% 7.7
Cliff Swallow -30% 1.6
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -24% 3.4
Short-billed Dowitcher -24% 3.7
Least Tern -38% 1
Orchard Oriole -49% 0.3
Willow Flycatcher -44% 0.6
Red-winged Blackbird -17% 12.3
American Oystercatcher -29% 1.5
Blue Grosbeak -26% 1.9
Evening Grosbeak -99% 0
Osprey -14% 14.2
Western Sandpiper -52% 0.5

Tennessee Warbler. Stuart Malcolm/Macaulay Library. eBird S31313392.

Tennessee Warbler. Stuart Malcolm/Macaulay Library. eBird S31313392.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate movements were the norm in much of the region this week, with a general increase in traffic over the course of the period. However, most of the action was west of the Appalachians. Of particular note was the dearth of migration activity in Florida in advance of the arrival of Hermine.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chestnut-sided Warbler 108% 3
Baltimore Oriole 124% 2.5
Red-eyed Vireo 32% 11.6
Scarlet Tanager 98% 2.3
American Redstart 39% 7.7
Magnolia Warbler 278% 0.7
Eastern Wood-Pewee 31% 9.2
Ovenbird 66% 2.1
Summer Tanager 31% 8.4
Northern Waterthrush 58% 2.7
Wilson's Snipe 173% 0.7
White-eyed Vireo 21% 17.1
Worm-eating Warbler 51% 2.4
Black-and-white Warbler 31% 7.1
Tennessee Warbler 344% 0.4
Yellow-throated Vireo 36% 3.8
American Golden-Plover 130% 0.7
American Crow 21% 36.2
Pine Warbler 23% 7.9
Canada Warbler 46% 1.3
Blue-winged Warbler 44% 1
Hooded Warbler 25% 4.4
Blue Jay 11% 43
Bobolink 58% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swallow-tailed Kite -86% 0.1
Gull-billed Tern -55% 0.6
Western Wood-Pewee -81% 0.1
Black Tern -35% 3.2
Cliff Swallow -45% 1.7
Least Tern -30% 3
Mississippi Kite -28% 3.7
Ring-billed Gull -31% 1.8
Greater Yellowlegs -23% 3.9
Fulvous Whistling-Duck -54% 0.5
Marbled Godwit -34% 1.2
American White Pelican -35% 0.9
Western Kingbird -42% 0.9
Willet -15% 6.7
Black-chinned Hummingbird -23% 2.2

Caspian Tern. Martin Wall/Macaulay Library. eBird S31326813.

Caspian Tern. Martin Wall/Macaulay Library. eBird S31326813.

Great Plains

Light to moderate flights in the southern Plains were the highlight of the weekend. But more intense and widespread flights by Monday night. This was particularly true in the central Plains on Tuesday night, and in the central and southern Plains by Wednesday night. Some locally heavy flights occurred in these areas during these movements.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Nashville Warbler 369% 5.5
Black-and-white Warbler 185% 7.6
Wilson's Warbler 121% 10
Caspian Tern 5820% 3.8
Red-breasted Nuthatch 201% 8
American Redstart 108% 11
Philadelphia Vireo 291% 3.1
Kentucky Warbler 504% 1.9
Purple Finch 1236% 1.6
Warbling Vireo 49% 14.6
White-breasted Nuthatch 42% 25.6
Black-throated Green Warbler 397% 1.6
Magnolia Warbler 113% 3.7
Yellow-rumped Warbler 496% 1.6
Osprey 77% 4.5
Red-bellied Woodpecker 33% 22.5
Brown Thrasher 46% 12.5
Yellow Warbler 39% 16.2
Yellow-throated Vireo 145% 2.4
Prothonotary Warbler 165% 2
Tennessee Warbler 98% 2.3
Tufted Titmouse 36% 15.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cliff Swallow -77% 2.9
Tree Swallow -78% 2
Western Kingbird -74% 1.3
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -75% 0.6
Sedge Wren -65% 1.1
Purple Martin -45% 3.2
Dickcissel -48% 3
Indigo Bunting -40% 5.8
Upland Sandpiper -76% 0.3
Yellow-headed Blackbird -49% 2.7
White-winged Dove -64% 0.5
Pied-billed Grebe -43% 4.2
Marsh Wren -81% 0.2
Brown-headed Cowbird -37% 2.9
Northern Pintail -67% 0.4
Eastern Kingbird -24% 20.2
Northern Mockingbird -44% 7.2
Blue Grosbeak -43% 2.1
Chimney Swift -27% 9.1
Ruddy Duck -46% 1
Marbled Godwit -96% 0
Black Tern -43% 3.7
Barn Swallow -22% 32.4
Spotted Sandpiper -25% 6.6

Lincoln's Sparrow. Douglas Leighton/Macaulay Library. eBird S31251992.

Lincoln’s Sparrow. Douglas Leighton/Macaulay Library. eBird S31251992.

West

Light to moderate flights were scattered across the region during the forecast period. Of particular note were flights in the Central Valley of California and Montana on Sunday night, when intensities were moderate and even locally heavy. Note that California experienced light to moderate flights for most of the period. Also of note were conditions unfavorable for migration at the end of the period, when scattered precipitation across the Rockies and Cascades kept many birds grounded.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Pectoral Sandpiper 93% 2.9
Lincoln's Sparrow 63% 2.6
Northern Pintail 41% 4.5
Swainson's Thrush 43% 3.2
Green-winged Teal 27% 7.2
Northern Shoveler 22% 7.6
Savannah Sparrow 20% 9.5
Common Yellowthroat 16% 14.5
Song Sparrow 13% 25
Red-necked Phalarope 34% 3.4
Wilson's Snipe 32% 2.7
White-crowned Sparrow 19% 8
Killdeer 12% 22.6
Lesser Yellowlegs 27% 5.7
Black-capped Chickadee 12% 16.4
Merlin 43% 0.6
Horned Grebe 58% 0.5
Least Sandpiper 18% 12.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wandering Tattler -67% 0.4
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -33% 3.3
Western Kingbird -28% 4.8
Painted Redstart -44% 0.7
Dusky Flycatcher -49% 0.7
Northern Waterthrush -62% 0.3
Broad-tailed Hummingbird -26% 5
Lazuli Bunting -28% 3.3
Blue Grosbeak -27% 3.1
Clark's Nutcracker -29% 2.4
Cordilleran Flycatcher -48% 0.6
Cliff Swallow -33% 3.9
Common Nighthawk -35% 1.2
Black-headed Grosbeak -24% 5.5
Red-faced Warbler -67% 0.1
Tennessee Warbler -85% 0.1
Mountain Chickadee -21% 6.7

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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