Forecast and Analysis

15-22 May 2015 Regional Migration Analysis

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab May 22, 2015

Black Skimmers © Ian Davies

Black Skimmers © Ian Davies

Continental Summary

A reasonable quiet late migration season week in the West featured movements of Black Tern, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Gray Catbird, Northern Waterthrush, American Redstart, particularly in the Desert Southwest and northern Rockies, while moderate to heavy flights in the East early in the week, featuring White-rumped Sandpiper, Sanderling, Black Skimmer, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Marsh Wren, Saltmarsh Sparrow, and Orchard Oriole, subsided as a more early spring like air mass arrived.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A nice pulse of moderate to heavy movements kicked off the weekend. Northern New England continued to experience a peak spring flight to kick off the work week, but by this time the rest of the region was already feeling the effects of an arriving and substantial low pressure system. Other than scattered light to moderate movements around the region for the following nights, most of the region was quiet as migrants stayed in the stopover locations. One part of the region did see a burst of moderate to locally heavy activity – the central and upper Mississippi River valley.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cedar Waxwing 43% 16.1
Semipalmated Sandpiper 21% 4.5
Semipalmated Plover 21% 6.1
Cliff Swallow 33% 4.6
Ruddy Turnstone 17% 2.5
Eastern Wood-Pewee 9% 25.9
Black Skimmer 52% 0.8
Bank Swallow 24% 4.6
Sedge Wren 36% 0.9
Red-eyed Vireo 10% 38.7
Sanderling 24% 1.3
Seaside Sparrow 42% 0.8
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 6% 7.2
Saltmarsh Sparrow 56% 0.3
Willet 14% 3.5
Dunlin 7% 5.4
Least Tern 8% 2.3
Short-billed Dowitcher 4% 3.4
Black Guillemot 50% 0.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-crowned Sparrow -70% 2.8
Palm Warbler -73% 2
Yellow-rumped Warbler -57% 6.9
Cape May Warbler -74% 1.3
White-throated Sparrow -53% 4.5
Black-and-white Warbler -41% 11.1
Solitary Sandpiper -63% 1.8
Nashville Warbler -43% 5
Northern Parula -37% 10.9
Black-throated Green Warbler -37% 9.1
Black-throated Blue Warbler -43% 6.3
Orange-crowned Warbler -67% 0.7
Northern Waterthrush -37% 5.9
Blackburnian Warbler -38% 5.9
Lincoln's Sparrow -47% 2
Tennessee Warbler -36% 8.1
Lesser Yellowlegs -38% 2.2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -52% 0.9
Blue-headed Vireo -40% 3.2
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -19% 17.9
Scarlet Tanager -25% 15.7
Greater Yellowlegs -30% 2.7
Prothonotary Warbler -32% 2.7

Gray-cheeked (or Bicknell's?) Thrush © Ian Davies

Gray-cheeked (or Bicknell’s?) Thrush © Ian Davies

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The later date of the migration season brought a typical late season pattern to the region – generally larger flights primarily in the western portions of the region, and smaller flights to the east of the Mississippi River. Texas and the western Gulf coast saw moderate flights for much of the earlier part of the period, at least before a colder air mass arrived to shut down much of the system away from the far southern reaches of the western Gulf Coast. Most of the southeast saw much lighter movements, with the exception of some moderate flights early in the week over parts of Florida.

Top Movers

Increasing

No species showed significant increases this week.

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Magnolia Warbler -75% 0.8
Wilson's Warbler -85% 0.3
Swainson's Thrush -72% 1
American Redstart -54% 4.4
Tennessee Warbler -91% 0.1
Solitary Sandpiper -84% 0.2
Blackpoll Warbler -66% 0.8
Yellow Warbler -53% 2.5
Chestnut-sided Warbler -56% 1.6
Lesser Yellowlegs -73% 0.4
Least Flycatcher -74% 0.5
Bay-breasted Warbler -91% 0.1
Northern Waterthrush -79% 0.3
Spotted Sandpiper -35% 4.3
Baltimore Oriole -69% 0.6
Least Sandpiper -42% 2.3
Black-throated Blue Warbler -49% 1.3
Gray Catbird -32% 7.3
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -62% 0.8
Olive-sided Flycatcher -74% 0.2
Gray-cheeked Thrush -81% 0.1
Pine Siskin -71% 0.3
Cedar Waxwing -24% 6.8
Black-and-white Warbler -29% 4.1
Bobolink -49% 0.7

Sanderling © Ian Davies

Sanderling © Ian Davies

Great Plains

A passing frontal boundary late in the weekend allowed for moderate to heavy flights on Friday and Saturday nights to evade its unfavorable winds and precipitation. In the wake of this system’s passage, another disturbance followed quickly; however, its swath was far enough to the south that the border states saw moderate to heavy flights persist into Tuesday night. As high pressure built in, locally light to moderate flights peppered the northern and central Plains, and as high pressure drifted east, more favorable conditions brought a return of moderate to locally heavy flights across the region for Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Orchard Oriole 60% 24.8
Gray Catbird 48% 32.1
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 40% 11.1
Common Yellowthroat 26% 24.1
Cliff Swallow 24% 27.8
Bank Swallow 38% 9.5
Eastern Wood-Pewee 23% 16.3
Bobolink 34% 8.9
Red-eyed Vireo 22% 22.8
Marsh Wren 46% 4.3
Tennessee Warbler 18% 21.5
House Wren 19% 29.5
Spotted Sandpiper 18% 20.4
Dickcissel 28% 14.1
Baltimore Oriole 19% 40.4
White-rumped Sandpiper 24% 7.1
Sanderling 44% 2.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-crowned Sparrow -68% 3.8
Lincoln's Sparrow -54% 3.7
Greater Yellowlegs -94% 0.1
Harris's Sparrow -52% 4.5
Solitary Sandpiper -66% 1
Yellow-rumped Warbler -28% 13.6
Lesser Yellowlegs -45% 2
Long-billed Dowitcher -45% 1.9
Pectoral Sandpiper -51% 1.2
White-throated Sparrow -25% 7.3
Orange-crowned Warbler -19% 11.1
Savannah Sparrow -30% 3.3
Baird's Sandpiper -40% 1.9
Blue-winged Teal -15% 18
Ring-necked Duck -62% 0.5

Gray Catbird © Ian Davies

Gray Catbird © Ian Davies

West

Scattered precipitation across the region kept late season migrants grounded in many areas for the weekend. Scattered light and isolated moderate movements occurred in California and portions of the Desert Southwest. A highlight in terms of intensity was the moderate flight over Montana on Monday and Tuesday nights; perhaps the moderate flights in the southern Rockies were a close second on Wednesday night. To end the period, isolated light movements in California, Montana, and Arizona offered the only excitement other than precipitation (which was certainly exciting for many areas).

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Gray Catbird 248% 4.4
Swainson's Thrush 62% 11.9
Western Wood-Pewee 38% 19.1
Northern Waterthrush 192% 1.7
Cedar Waxwing 21% 10.2
Dusky Flycatcher 25% 5.2
Olive-sided Flycatcher 23% 5.7
Western Tanager 18% 21.5
Yellow Warbler 15% 28.8
MacGillivray's Warbler 20% 5.8
American Redstart 106% 0.9
Blue Grosbeak 20% 3.7
Black Tern 35% 1.8
Bullock's Oriole 12% 18.3
Least Flycatcher 39% 1.3
Cliff Swallow 10% 20.1
Warbling Vireo 12% 14.7
Common Yellowthroat 9% 15
Black-headed Grosbeak 8% 25.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Long-billed Dowitcher -71% 0.5
Hermit Warbler -44% 1.2
Black-throated Gray Warbler -29% 2.7
Least Sandpiper -66% 0.3
Western Sandpiper -56% 0.4
Dunlin -54% 0.4
Golden-crowned Sparrow -85% 0.1
Townsend's Warbler -22% 3.6
Wilson's Phalarope -27% 3
Eared Grebe -20% 3.3
American Wigeon -22% 2.8
Northern Shoveler -19% 5.7
Black-bellied Plover -27% 0.7

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