Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 14-21 April 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 21, 2017

Green Heron. Cesar Castillo/Macaulay Library. eBird S36039189.

Continental Summary

Moderate movements featuring Semipalmated Plover, Caspian Tern, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Nashville Warbler, and Western Tanager were the norm for California and the Desert Southwest, while moderate to locally heavy flights graced portions of the East and featured Spotted Sandpiper, Great Crested Flycatcher, Red-eyed Vireo, Wood Thrush, Blackpoll Warbler, Baltimore Oriole, and Dickcissel.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

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Quick Links to Regions

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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Light to moderate flights were widespread to kickoff the weekend, but a passing front and a return to much cooler conditions halted those movements by Sunday night in most areas. Moderate to locally heavy flights occurred in the upper Midwest on Monday night, spreading farther east on Tuesday though in significantly reduced intensities. A strong low pressure system moved through the region to end the period, with some light to moderate movements to the south and east of its track through the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys on Wednesday night and over the mid Atlantic region on Thursday night.

Light to moderate flights through the northern Appalachians and New York were apparent on the night of 18-19 April. Our traffic report highlights these flights moving in northerly and increasingly north-northeasterly directions over the course of the night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
House Wren 153% 12.3
Yellow-rumped Warbler 58% 25.1
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 60% 21.7
White-throated Sparrow 42% 35.9
Barn Swallow 58% 12.8
Common Yellowthroat 124% 4.2
Palm Warbler 58% 9.9
Chipping Sparrow 39% 35.6
Spotted Sandpiper 144% 2.1
Warbling Vireo 168% 1.8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 46% 25.7
Northern Parula 87% 5.3
Eastern Towhee 39% 21.5
Broad-winged Hawk 87% 4.2
White-eyed Vireo 113% 2.1
Wood Thrush 196% 1.2
Green Heron 115% 1.9
American Goldfinch 21% 47.1
Solitary Sandpiper 111% 2
Brown Thrasher 38% 12.6
Sora 86% 2.4
Eastern Kingbird 161% 1.2
Swamp Sparrow 38% 11.9
Chimney Swift 111% 1.7
Red-eyed Vireo 189% 0.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Kinglet -78% 2.1
Dark-eyed Junco -43% 14.2
Ring-necked Duck -45% 4.1
Fox Sparrow -91% 0.3
Bufflehead -37% 6.7
American Tree Sparrow -55% 2.1
Brown Creeper -40% 4.1
Common Merganser -34% 3.6
Common Loon -32% 4.4
Lesser Scaup -35% 2.9
Hooded Merganser -34% 3.3
Common Goldeneye -49% 0.8
Bonaparte's Gull -34% 1.8
Gadwall -29% 3.3
Green-winged Teal -25% 4.5
American Wigeon -34% 1.6
Northern Shoveler -19% 5.6
Canvasback -45% 0.5
Ruddy Duck -20% 3.8
American Woodcock -33% 0.9
Redhead -30% 1.5
Winter Wren -21% 2
Rusty Blackbird -12% 2.7
Snow Goose -19% 0.6

Blackpoll Warbler. JoAnna Clayton/Macaulay Library. eBird S35926289.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Widespread moderate to locally heavy movements were the norm for many areas of the region this period. The peak movements were Sunday through Wednesday nights, first in the western Gulf and then gradually spreading farther to the east to include portions of the Florida Panhandle and Peninsula. Note that some areas of the central Gulf Coast exhibited a noticeably lower intensity departure of nocturnal migrants on the weekend and late in the period, relative to surrounding locations.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blackpoll Warbler 130% 5.4
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 115% 4.3
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 103% 4
Wood Thrush 79% 6
Indigo Bunting 54% 13
Dickcissel 170% 1.9
Common Nighthawk 124% 2.3
Painted Bunting 63% 5.2
Blue Grosbeak 73% 4.8
Baltimore Oriole 90% 3.6
Northern Waterthrush 79% 4.1
Tennessee Warbler 91% 3.4
Summer Tanager 46% 12.2
Eastern Wood-Pewee 118% 2
Red-eyed Vireo 39% 14.2
Yellow Warbler 101% 2.3
Great Crested Flycatcher 31% 21.7
Yellow-breasted Chat 78% 3.5
American Redstart 58% 4.6
Orchard Oriole 44% 8.8
Scarlet Tanager 53% 5.2
Gray Catbird 24% 19.2
Least Tern 37% 6.3
Swainson's Thrush 85% 1.7
Common Yellowthroat 23% 15.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -44% 6.3
Hermit Thrush -59% 0.9
Pied-billed Grebe -34% 4.4
American Coot -25% 6.8
Common Loon -57% 0.6
Yellow-rumped Warbler -17% 14.5
Belted Kingfisher -21% 5.7
Double-crested Cormorant -16% 13.6
Chipping Sparrow -14% 11.1
Wood Duck -17% 5.1
Northern Shoveler -27% 2.5
Swamp Sparrow -22% 2.8
Green-winged Teal -69% 0.3
Osprey -10% 14.6
Northern Harrier -30% 1.6
Dark-eyed Junco -53% 0.5
Ring-billed Gull -20% 4
Orange-crowned Warbler -29% 1.6
Fish Crow -9% 17.6
American Goldfinch -10% 11.6
Bufflehead -81% 0.1
Gadwall -38% 0.8
Wilson's Snipe -32% 0.8
American Kestrel -28% 1.5
White-throated Sparrow -7% 12.4

Eastern Kingbird. Nancy Christensen/Macaulay Library. eBird S36119131.

Great Plains

Light to moderate flights peppered the central and southern Plains on the weekend to kickoff the period. These continued on Monday and Tuesday nights, albeit slightly more widely distributed as low pressure and associated precipitation moved into the region. As this disturbance moved out of the Plains, unfavorable migration conditions kept birds grounded in all but the southernmost reaches of the region on Wednesday night. Locally light to moderate flights returned on Thursday night, particularly in areas with lower wind speeds and more marginal (rather than unfavorable) migration conditions.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Spotted Sandpiper 155% 6
House Wren 105% 10.5
Eastern Kingbird 160% 4.3
Warbling Vireo 167% 3.4
Orange-crowned Warbler 93% 7.9
Lark Sparrow 78% 9.8
Yellow-rumped Warbler 46% 27.1
Semipalmated Plover 125% 3.9
Chipping Sparrow 43% 20.5
Baltimore Oriole 209% 2
Forster's Tern 104% 3.9
Grasshopper Sparrow 85% 5
Barn Swallow 36% 21.6
Pectoral Sandpiper 65% 7.4
Lesser Yellowlegs 46% 13.8
Great Crested Flycatcher 199% 1.6
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 42% 12.6
Wilson's Phalarope 133% 2.3
Summer Tanager 172% 1.7
Savannah Sparrow 41% 13.5
Solitary Sandpiper 97% 3.2
Upland Sandpiper 79% 4.3
Northern Parula 50% 9.4
American Avocet 57% 7.4
Eastern Meadowlark 25% 25

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -95% 0.6
Bufflehead -54% 3.3
Gadwall -28% 10.2
Lesser Scaup -37% 6.1
Sandhill Crane -96% 0.1
Green-winged Teal -26% 7.9
Song Sparrow -21% 12.5
Northern Shoveler -19% 19.5
Fox Sparrow -89% 0.2
Mallard -12% 29.4
Ring-necked Duck -38% 3.9
Northern Flicker -14% 17
Northern Harrier -21% 6.1
Pied-billed Grebe -18% 12.1
Hooded Merganser -38% 2.2
American Kestrel -17% 8.6
American Wigeon -24% 5.8
Brown Creeper -46% 1
Herring Gull -72% 0.3
Lapland Longspur -68% 0.2
Red-tailed Hawk -11% 18.8
American Tree Sparrow -70% 0.3
Snow Goose -38% 1.8
Golden-crowned Kinglet -62% 0.4

Nashville Warbler. Dan Hackley/Macaulay Library. eBird S36142696.

West

Light to moderate flights were widespread from the Desert Southwest north into the Pacific Northwest during the weekend. Bu Sunday and Monday nights, precipitation arrived and shut down most movements away from the Desert Southwest. This pattern repeated itself during the period, as similarly intense movements moved into and through California and the Desert Southwest while other areas of the region experienced continued, and at times extensive, precipitation.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wilson's Warbler 56% 8.5
Nashville Warbler 86% 2.6
Black-headed Grosbeak 50% 7
Lazuli Bunting 81% 2.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 43% 9.3
Vaux's Swift 100% 1.9
Western Tanager 123% 1.6
Black-throated Gray Warbler 46% 5
Barn Swallow 26% 15.7
Ash-throated Flycatcher 34% 7.1
Chipping Sparrow 29% 6.5
Warbling Vireo 46% 3.1
House Wren 26% 9.1
Caspian Tern 36% 4.1
Semipalmated Plover 68% 1.7
Cliff Swallow 22% 8.8
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 27% 5.4
Orange-crowned Warbler 15% 14.2
Least Sandpiper 27% 4.3
Yellow-breasted Chat 79% 1.2
Cassin's Vireo 50% 2.2
Yellow-headed Blackbird 27% 5.1
Black-chinned Hummingbird 26% 5.6
Olive-sided Flycatcher 183% 0.5
Spotted Towhee 10% 23.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Wigeon -32% 5.9
Ring-necked Duck -22% 5.5
Bufflehead -19% 9.1
Common Goldeneye -35% 2
Lesser Scaup -19% 4.3
American Coot -10% 16.8
Fox Sparrow -38% 1
Northern Harrier -15% 5.7
Northern Pintail -22% 3.1
Greater Yellowlegs -18% 3.9
Pied-billed Grebe -12% 6.2
White-crowned Sparrow -5% 24.8
Hooded Merganser -23% 1.7
Canvasback -24% 1.2
Common Merganser -11% 4.8
Red-throated Loon -15% 0.9
Dark-eyed Junco -4% 14.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -1% 9.9
Rhinoceros Auklet -8% 0.4
Wood Duck -2% 4.2
Lincoln's Sparrow 0% 4.4

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