Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 30 October – 6 November 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 06, 2015

Red-breasted Merganser, Ryan Schain

Red-breasted Merganser, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

A quiet late season week in the West saw primarily light movements west of the Rockies featuring Brant, Red-breasted Merganser, Pacific Loon, Mew Gull, Bohemian Waxwing, Chestnut-collared Longspur, Grasshopper Sparrow, and Clay-colored Sparrow, while early and late period movements of moderate to heavy intensity in the East featured numerous waterfowl, Rough-legged Hawk, Northern Shrike, Cedar Waxwing, American Tree Sparrow, and Fox Sparrow.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Screenshot 2015-11-06 15.16.17

Eastern Bluebird, Ryan Schain

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Southerly and southwesterly flow dominated the scene this week in the region, and most movements that occurred were primarily light to moderate. In areas where winds were lighter than expected, slightly more intense migration occurred, for example Sunday night in the Ohio River valley region and Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the mid Atlantic states. By Thursday night, a sign of life for remaining fall migrants appeared in the midwest, where moderate to locally heavy flights occurred locally after the passage of a frontal boundary.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Tree Sparrow 49% 6.9
American Goldfinch 21% 41.7
Dark-eyed Junco 25% 37.9
Cedar Waxwing 30% 15.4
Purple Finch 26% 4.1
Dickcissel 103% 0.5
Eastern Bluebird 21% 16.1
Purple Sandpiper 175% 0.2
Fox Sparrow 31% 5
Yellow-breasted Chat 122% 0.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Pectoral Sandpiper -68% 0.5
Tree Swallow -59% 1.4
White-rumped Sandpiper -71% 0.2
Vesper Sparrow -66% 0.2
Eastern Phoebe -48% 1.5
Palm Warbler -42% 1.5
Osprey -58% 0.7
Least Sandpiper -67% 0.2
Turkey Vulture -24% 12.6
Great Egret -27% 2.6
Blue-headed Vireo -62% 0.3
Sharp-shinned Hawk -25% 4.7
Wood Duck -22% 5.9
Semipalmated Sandpiper -90% 0
Lincoln's Sparrow -50% 0.5
Merlin -33% 1.8
Yellow-rumped Warbler -18% 14.5
Dunlin -24% 3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -18% 7.1
Chipping Sparrow -22% 3.6
Royal Tern -31% 1
American Wigeon -22% 3.6
Semipalmated Plover -40% 0.4
Greater Yellowlegs -17% 4.6
Franklin's Gull -50% 0.3

Screenshot 2015-11-06 15.17.12

Northern Parula, Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to heavy flights kicked off the period for areas east of the Mississippi River. However, the days that followed saw a drastic change in the intensity and distribution of movements. A slow moving front shut down most movements east of the Mississippi River outside of Florida from Saturday through Monday. Behind this front, moderate flights occurred over Texas and Louisiana. By Monday night, the front had shifted far enough to the east to allow most areas west of the Appalachians to experience moderate flights. But persistent warm temperatures and a lack of input from points farther north brought diminishing migrant returns for the remainder of the period. Thursday night saw the hints of movements to come, as light to moderate flights took off in the favorable conditions to the west of an east Texas frontal boundary.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Orange-crowned Warbler 49% 10.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-throated Blue Warbler -65% 1.1
Cape May Warbler -88% 0.1
American Redstart -56% 2
Yellow Rail -98% 0
Northern Parula -51% 2.3
Prairie Warbler -48% 1.4
Gray Catbird -21% 16.5
Blue Jay -18% 36.8
Black-and-white Warbler -29% 4.5
Magnolia Warbler -50% 0.9
Yellow-throated Warbler -41% 2
Bay-breasted Warbler -68% 0.2
Painted Bunting -36% 1.7
Palm Warbler -18% 17.1
Ovenbird -48% 1.1
Chimney Swift -80% 0.1

Screenshot 2015-11-06 15.18.01

Northern Shrike, Ryan Schain

Great Plains

The southerly and southwesterly flow that was pervasive during this period across the region significantly slowed migration progress, with few nights and locations experiencing anything more than light flights. Locally light flights on Saturday night were the highlight in terms of bird migration for the period up to Thursday night. By Thursday night, a frontal boundary had passed to the west, and the central and southern Plains saw moderate to locally heavy flights follow suite.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Snowy Owl 957% 3.1
White-winged Scoter 626% 1.6
Thayer's Gull 162% 1.1
Snow Goose 25% 5.3
Hooded Merganser 33% 3.2
American Tree Sparrow 20% 9.3
Pine Grosbeak 89% 0.7
Eared Grebe 23% 3.2
Common Loon 26% 3.5
Dark-eyed Junco 8% 44.9
Cedar Waxwing 12% 9
Bohemian Waxwing 54% 0.4
Northern Shrike 19% 2.1
Townsend's Solitaire 38% 1.2
Snow Bunting 22% 1.9
Cackling Goose 16% 2.7
Lesser Scaup 0% 8.4
Rough-legged Hawk 17% 1.7
Ross's Goose 22% 1
Common Goldeneye 32% 1.1
Greater White-fronted Goose 10% 5.3
Redhead 14% 12.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lincoln's Sparrow -70% 2.2
Chipping Sparrow -62% 3.2
Field Sparrow -68% 1.9
Swamp Sparrow -64% 2
Long-billed Dowitcher -74% 0.5
Turkey Vulture -66% 1.6
Tufted Titmouse -37% 8.7
Double-crested Cormorant -32% 15.6
Savannah Sparrow -39% 6
Song Sparrow -32% 14.3
Western Meadowlark -42% 4
Common Grackle -42% 4.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler -24% 16.5
Red-tailed Hawk -21% 24.6
Killdeer -25% 13.8
Fox Sparrow -44% 3.8
Eastern Meadowlark -36% 5.1
American Wigeon -38% 7
Mourning Dove -22% 14.6
Franklin's Gull -26% 13.5
Vesper Sparrow -58% 1
Northern Flicker -20% 28.5
Fish Crow -96% 0
Tree Swallow -86% 0.1
White-throated Sparrow -27% 10.9

Pacific Loon, Brian Sullivan

Pacific Loon, Brian Sullivan

West

Light, late season movements were apparent in the southern reaches of the region last weekend, as more northerly locales experience scattered precipitation.  By Monday night, as some of this precipitation cleared out of the Pacific Northwest, light to locally moderate flights took place. But the remainder of the period saw minimal to light movements scattered locally across the West.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-breasted Merganser 118% 3.3
Brant 173% 1.1
Pacific Loon 78% 3.3
Black Turnstone 64% 3.1
Mew Gull 50% 5.4
Peregrine Falcon 45% 4.7
Bonaparte's Gull 28% 4
Bohemian Waxwing 599% 0.3
Surf Scoter 64% 7.3
Bufflehead 17% 12.6
Brown Pelican 29% 7.4
Snow Bunting 73% 0.5
Surfbird 41% 1.1
Rock Sandpiper 284% 0.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-naped Sapsucker -51% 0.7
Prairie Falcon -50% 0.5
Chestnut-collared Longspur -76% 0.1
Clay-colored Sparrow -78% 0.1
Red-throated Pipit -90% 0
Grasshopper Sparrow -79% 0
Cassin's Kingbird -22% 2.5
Chipping Sparrow -29% 1.9
Sage Thrasher -69% 0.1
Lewis's Woodpecker -45% 0.4
Clark's Nutcracker -35% 0.6
Northern Pintail -17% 5.9
Gadwall -17% 8.7
Common Grackle -51% 0.2
Wood Duck -17% 2.4

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