Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 6-13 November 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 06, 2015

Black Brant, Doug Gochfeld

Black Brant, Doug Gochfeld

Continental Summary

A relatively quiet week of scattered light migration featuring Brant, Common Goldeneye, Barrow’s Goldeneye, California Gull, Chestnut-collared Longspur, and Golden-crowned Sparrow is in store for this late migration period in the West, while the passage of two strong cold fronts spawn the season’s last major moderate to heavy flights featuring Lesser Scaup, Long-tailed Duck, Bufflehead, Hooded Merganser, Great Cormorant, Purple Sandpiper, and Rusty Blackbird in the East.

Check out what birds were on the move this past week in our analysis.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

After a prolonged period of southerly and southwesterly flow, a frontal passage brings favorable conditions for moderate to heavy flights to much of the region for the weekend. This flight has the potential to include interesting western vagrants, including Cave Swallow and Ash-throated Flycatcher, in addition to arrivals of later season intercontinental migrants and departures of lingering Neotropical migrants. By Monday, southerly flow returns to much of the region, quieting migration significantly in all areas except perhaps the immediate Atlantic Coast until late in the period; note that several pulses of locally moderate flights are likely along the coast from the Monday to Thursday. The end of the work week, specifically Thursday and Friday, will see another low pressure system approach and enter the region. When this system passes, the last large flight of moderate to locally very heavy intensities will follow.

Harlequin Duck, Ryan Schain

Harlequin Duck, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Iceland Gull * 7-Nov 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Snowy Owl ** 8-Nov 25-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Glaucous Gull * 11-Nov 29-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Tundra Swan ** 25-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec 13-Dec
Harlequin Duck * 24-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov - -
Rufous Hummingbird * 27-Oct 8-Nov 22-Nov 6-Dec 16-Dec
Ross's Goose * 24-Oct 10-Nov 1-Dec After Dec 31 -
Ash-throated Flycatcher * 30-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 11-Dec -
King Eider * 27-Oct 12-Nov 14-Dec After Dec 31 -
Great Cormorant * 3-Sep 12-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Common Goldeneye ** 23-Oct 13-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Purple Sandpiper * 29-Oct 13-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Coot *** 26-Sep 14-Oct 6-Nov 26-Nov 20-Dec
Red-necked Grebe * 6-Oct 19-Oct 7-Nov 22-Nov 8-Dec
Surf Scoter * 23-Sep 11-Oct 8-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec
Fox Sparrow ** 30-Sep 17-Oct 8-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
Western Kingbird * 15-Oct 26-Oct 9-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Snow Bunting ** 12-Oct 23-Oct 9-Nov 22-Nov 1-Dec
Northern Shoveler ** 9-Aug 15-Oct 10-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec
White-winged Scoter * 1-Oct 19-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec
Ruddy Duck ** 30-Sep 17-Oct 10-Nov 30-Nov -
Bonaparte's Gull ** 10-Oct 24-Oct 11-Nov 29-Nov 15-Dec
Ring-necked Duck * 5-Oct 21-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec
Gadwall * 3-Oct 19-Oct 13-Nov 30-Nov -

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Vesper Sparrow * 24-Sep 6-Oct 21-Oct 7-Nov 18-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird *** 21-Sep 3-Oct 19-Oct 7-Nov 23-Nov
Sharp-shinned Hawk *** 26-Aug 10-Sep 7-Oct 8-Nov 22-Nov
Common Grackle *** 1-Oct 8-Oct 18-Oct 8-Nov 23-Nov
American Robin *** 11-Sep 25-Sep 13-Oct 9-Nov 26-Nov
Northern Harrier ** 1-Aug 26-Sep 20-Oct 10-Nov 27-Nov
Rusty Blackbird ** 18-Sep 3-Oct 23-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov
Royal Tern * 12-Jul 31-Jul 25-Aug 10-Nov 25-Nov
Eastern Bluebird *** 9-Sep 25-Sep 19-Oct 11-Nov 29-Nov
Purple Finch *** 21-Sep 6-Oct 24-Oct 11-Nov 25-Nov
Laughing Gull ** Before July 1 15-Jul 13-Aug 12-Nov 5-Dec
Red-shouldered Hawk ** 24-Aug 5-Sep 22-Sep 13-Nov 22-Nov
American Woodcock * 27-Sep 12-Oct 26-Oct 13-Nov 25-Nov

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Favorable conditions late in the weekend bring moderate to heavy movements to the region. Away from the immediate southeastern coastal plain, these movements are short-lived. Southerly flow returns for much of the work week, significantly reducing flights to scattered light movements. A major change comes on Wednesday and Thursday, as a strong frontal boundary moves into the region. Heavy flights will occur west of the Mississippi by Thursday, followed by similarly intense and more extensive flights by Friday.

Lesser Scaup, Ryan Schain

Lesser Scaup, Ryan Schain

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Harris's Sparrow ** 6-Nov 23-Nov 15-Dec - -
Red-throated Loon * 6-Nov 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Common Goldeneye * 12-Nov 27-Nov 21-Dec - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Brewer's Blackbird * 15-Oct 7-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Common Loon ** 23-Oct 7-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Lesser Scaup *** 23-Oct 7-Nov 4-Dec - -
Canvasback * 23-Oct 8-Nov 7-Dec - -
Ferruginous Hawk * 22-Oct 8-Nov 29-Nov 16-Dec After Dec 31
Ross's Goose * 18-Oct 8-Nov 11-Dec - -
Rusty Blackbird * 20-Oct 9-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Horned Grebe ** 27-Oct 11-Nov 7-Dec - -
Bufflehead *** 31-Oct 12-Nov 5-Dec - -
Greater Scaup * 28-Oct 13-Nov 18-Dec - -
Hooded Merganser *** 29-Oct 13-Nov 11-Dec - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Red-winged Blackbird ** 24-Sep 13-Oct 7-Nov 19-Nov 30-Nov
Western Meadowlark * 3-Oct 19-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Eastern Towhee * 7-Sep 15-Sep 21-Oct 8-Nov 22-Nov
Common Grackle *** 26-Sep 11-Oct 25-Oct 10-Nov 20-Nov
Brown-headed Cowbird ** 12-Sep 26-Sep 25-Oct 11-Nov 22-Nov
Cooper's Hawk *** 29-Jul 11-Sep 24-Oct 11-Nov 22-Nov
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 2-Sep 17-Sep 28-Oct 12-Nov 22-Nov

Great Plains

Friday and Saturday see moderate to heavy flights across much of the region. However, southerly flow returns quickly, and holds sway for much of the region until Wednesday. During these days mostly light movements will occur locally, with some heavier flights near the Canadian border. Tuesday night sees the arrival of a low pressure center that will spawn moderate to locally very heavy flights in the days that follow before more southerly flow returns after Friday.

Cackling Goose, Ryan Schain

Cackling Goose, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

We don’t have any species to highlight here for this week.

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Long-tailed Duck * 25-Oct 7-Nov 23-Nov 9-Dec 26-Dec
Cackling Goose *** 27-Oct 10-Nov 1-Dec - -
Common Goldeneye *** 1-Nov 13-Nov 3-Dec - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Horned Grebe *** 7-Oct 20-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov 9-Dec
Northern Shoveler *** 11-Oct 22-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec
Gadwall *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 7-Nov 20-Nov 1-Dec
Redhead *** 10-Oct 22-Oct 7-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Ring-necked Duck *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 7-Nov 19-Nov 29-Nov
Whooping Crane * 13-Oct 24-Oct 8-Nov 24-Nov 6-Dec
Common Loon ** 12-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
Ring-billed Gull *** 16-Jul 23-Oct 10-Nov 29-Nov -
Canvasback *** 13-Oct 25-Oct 11-Nov 27-Nov 8-Dec
Lesser Scaup *** 14-Oct 26-Oct 13-Nov 28-Nov 11-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Field Sparrow *** 18-Sep 30-Sep 18-Oct 6-Nov 17-Nov
Song Sparrow *** 21-Sep 6-Oct 25-Oct 9-Nov 19-Nov
Franklin's Gull *** 1-Sep 16-Sep 13-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov
American Avocet *** - - 19-Oct 11-Nov 25-Nov
American Pipit *** 17-Sep 4-Oct 24-Oct 12-Nov 26-Nov
Fox Sparrow * 2-Oct 14-Oct 30-Oct 12-Nov 24-Nov
Northern Harrier *** 24-Sep 11-Oct 29-Oct 12-Nov 21-Nov
Greater Yellowlegs *** - 1-Aug 26-Oct 13-Nov 25-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9-Sep 22-Sep 24-Oct 13-Nov 27-Nov

West

At this late date in the season, most movements in the region will be light and local. This period is no exception, and the weekend begins with light and local flights in the Desert Southwest. Movements of similar low intensity also come to the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and northern Rockies on Tuesday. These flights continue and expand to the south and east during the remainder of the week, but intensities remain low and extents remain more local. By the end of the period, flights are primarily distributed from the Desert Southwest north and east through the central Rockies.

Trumpeter Swans, Chris Wood

Trumpeter Swans, Chris Wood

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Glaucous Gull * 6-Nov 1-Dec After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Brant * 23-Oct 6-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Trumpeter Swan * 24-Oct 6-Nov 25-Nov - -
Barrow's Goldeneye * 23-Oct 7-Nov 2-Dec - -
Ross's Goose * 24-Oct 7-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec 14-Dec
Common Goldeneye *** 30-Oct 11-Nov 2-Dec - -
Common Redpoll * 28-Oct 11-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Clark's Grebe * 7-Oct 20-Oct 6-Nov 23-Nov -
Red-necked Grebe * 26-Aug 20-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov -
Dunlin * 22-Sep 11-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Common Loon ** 7-Oct 21-Oct 7-Nov 24-Nov -
California Gull ** Before July 1 14-Jul 9-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
Eared Grebe ** 30-Aug 29-Sep 9-Nov 29-Nov 11-Dec
Bonaparte's Gull ** 13-Oct 24-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 9-Dec
White-winged Scoter * 20-Sep 22-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe * 27-Jul 18-Oct 11-Nov 29-Nov -
Horned Grebe * 21-Sep 18-Oct 11-Nov 26-Nov 6-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Red-throated Pipit * 19-Sep 2-Oct 19-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov
Hermit Thrush ** 21-Sep 5-Oct 28-Oct 7-Nov 15-Nov
Western Meadowlark * 10-Sep 27-Sep 22-Oct 8-Nov 6-Dec
Golden-crowned Kinglet ** 14-Sep 3-Oct 26-Oct 11-Nov 21-Nov
Chestnut-collared Longspur * 17-Sep 3-Oct 25-Oct 12-Nov 30-Nov

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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