News: Forecast and Analysis

Continental Summary: Increasingly widespread light to moderate movements occurred across the West this past week, as the East experienced two pulses of light to moderate and locally heavy movements between strong frontal systems. Birds on the move included Warbling Vireo, Gray Catbird, and Yellow Warbler. West Light to moderate movements were in evidence in many […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: Light to moderate movements continue in the West amidst some scattered mountain precipitation, while the East has moderate to heavy movements and fallout potential interspersed between strong spring storm systems and the marginal to unfavorable conditions that trail them. Birds on the move this week include Warbling Vireo, Gray Catbird, Yellow Warbler, Rose-breasted […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: Light to moderate movements occurred across the West, particularly early in the forecast period in California and the Desert Southwest, while a complex stalled front brought light to moderate and even locally heavy movements to many different areas of the East. Species on the move this week included numerous shorebirds, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, numerous […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: The West sees continued light to moderate movements and new arrivals in the deserts and California, while pulses of moderate and heavy movements of new trans-Gulf and circum-Gulf arrivals appear among strong passing storms. On the move this week will be Spotted Sandpiper, Chimney Swift, Wood Thrush, House Wren, Yellow Warbler, Indigo Bunting, […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: Migration arrivals continued across portion of the West, while the floodgates began to open in many areas of the East. The 5-12 April 2013 animation shows the week’s movements relative to synoptic weather conditions. West Light to moderate movements began the period and continued into the early week in the Desert Southwest, Four Corners, […]  Read more...

As of 1130AM CDT a pair of cold fronts is approaching the Gulf Coast. Most precipitation is presently North and West of the coast, but in the coming hours it will advance to the Gulf of Mexico. Trans-Gulf migrants are already coming ashore, primarily as light to moderate movements, along the Central Texas coast, above […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: A warm up forecast for the East brings a flood of new arrivals during the week and a chance for more fallouts along the Gulf Coast, as much of the West continues to experience typical spring arrivals. See this animation of forecast winds and precipitation for 5-12 April 2013 or below. West Light to […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: Numerous species were on the move in the West this week where light and moderate movements occurred in many areas, whereas hints of the opening of the flood gates to come appeared in several fallouts and some locally moderate and even heavy movements in the East. Please click here for an animation of […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: This week’s migration forecast features an opening of some flood gates for migrant arrivals in the Eastern and Central US, while new arrivals continue to move across many areas of the West. West Mostly favorable conditions bring a forecast for light to moderate movements and continuing spring arrivals for most areas of the […]  Read more...

Wilson’s Warbler was on the move in portions of the West and Gulf Coast and Southeast this past week. This bird was photographed by Brian Sullivan. West Scattered light movements began the period, particularly in the California and portions of the Desert Southwest. By the end of the weekend and beginning of the week, migration […]  Read more...

Continental Summary: This week’s migration forecast features the arrival of a strong high pressure center over the US, which will shut down migration as it approaches and builds, several disturbances that may spawn fallouts, and the potential for some European vagrants to the North and East. An animation of the forecast 925mb winds and precipitation is […]  Read more...

Spring migration continues to ramp up slowly, and early migrants such as Western Kingbird began appearing in numbers during the past week. This individual was photographed on 16 April 2007 by Brian Sullivan. West Scattered light migration occurred in several areas over the course of the week from southern California east through the Desert Southwest. […]  Read more...

Continental Summary This week’s migration forecast highlights favorable conditions for migrant arrivals in the Gulf Coast region and unfavorable conditions for migrants to advance into much of the West, Great Plains and Upper Midwest and Northeast because of late winter-early spring storms moving east during the forecast period. West Several storms systems will keep migrants […]  Read more...

West Scattered light migration was apparent in some areas of the West, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday nights. The image below, from Thursday evening 14 March 2013, shows light movements in California and portions of the Desert Southwest. Some of this week’s species on the move, as detected in eBird, include some diurnal migrants like […]  Read more...

Continental Summary This week’s migration forecast highlights the effects of a strong frontal boundary crossing the country, facilitating light and scattered moderate movements with its approach to a region and shutting down migration in its wake. West Generally unfavorable conditions ground most migrants, although scattered light migration will occur in isolated areas with more favorable […]  Read more...

Although some portions of the Western US will see light and scattered migration by the middle or end of this week (e.g. the Desert Southwest), this week’s weather is dominated by the passage of Winter Storm Saturn across the Central and Eastern US and mostly unfavorable migration conditions. The animation below shows a morning and […]  Read more...

Today through Friday has potential to see winds transport waterfowl, gulls, and other late migrants and irruptives into the Northeast and Great Lakes. Additionally, snow cover may force sparrows and open-area species like pipits, longspurs, Snow Buntings, and larks to move from areas where more than 1-2 inches covers the ground. Please make sure to […]  Read more...

With the departure to the Northeast of Hurricane and Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy, westerly flow prevails outside the Northeastern US across a huge portion of the Eastern US from the western Great Lakes through peninsular Florida. In many areas, despite the late date, later season migrants including waterfowl and passerines will take flight. Widespread light to […]  Read more...

As the fall migration continues past its peak, the big story of the forecast period is the passage of Hurricane Sandy, the havoc it may wreck, and the intense northerly and westerly flows that will spawn large movements before and after its passage. Additionally updates will be posted here as forecasts change for Sandy. West […]  Read more...

The West will experience light migration in areas away from the immediate Pacific Coast and elsewhere that precipitation is forecast, whereas strong high pressure in the Southeast creates favorable conditions for moderate to heavy movements in the Northeast and generally unfavorable conditions in the country’s midsection. A brief note – birders in the Upper Midwest, […]  Read more...