Forecasts

Looking ahead

Next Friday, BirdCast begins its official Fall 2017 season of weekly migration forecast and analysis reports. Additionally, we will soon be introducing a few new members of Team BirdCast, some new visualizations, and of course discussions of any interesting patterns we see (or hear). Stay tuned!


Species Highlight: Dickcissel in the Northeastern US

In June 2017 numerous observers around the Northeastern US commented that Dickcissels were more obvious, and in greater numbers, than years in recent memory. Team BirdCast take a quick look at this pattern and how it changed (or not!) over the weeks that followed.


Arriving soon . . . BirdCast Fall 2017

BirdCast will soon return for Fall 2017! Favorable migration conditions for light to moderate flights become more widespread across the West, while the East sees a mix of marginal and locally favorable migration conditions with local light and moderate movements punctuate an otherwise summery pattern. Please check back in the coming week for the first official forecast and analysis posts!


Regional Migration Forecast: 26 May – 2 June 2017

Late season light to moderate flights will occur in widely scattered locations during the forecast period and feature Common Nighthawk, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Eastern Kingbird, Cedar Waxwing, and Brewer’s Sparrow, while the most widespread favorable conditions for moderate to locally heavy flights featuring Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Acadian Flycatcher, Blue Grosbeak, Dickcissel, Grasshopper Sparrow, and Henslow’s Sparrow in the East come during the weekend and end of the period.


Regional Migration Forecast: 19-26 May 2017

Light to moderate flights becomes increasingly likely in the West and will feature White-throated Swift, Willow Flycatcher, Western Wood-Pewee, Eastern Kingbird, Swainson’s Thrush, MacGillivray’s Warbler, and Western Tanager, as spring migration winds down, while scattered moderate to heavy flights featuring Black Tern, Common Nighthawk, Chimney Swift, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Acadian Flycatcher, Philadelphia Vireo, Cedar Waxwing, and Mourning Warbler will punctuate the migration scene in the East amidst unsettled conditions.


Regional Migration Analysis: 5-19 May 2017

BirdCast regional analyses return after our global big day absence! Widespread light and moderate to locally heavy flights characterized the first days of this long forecast period in the West and featured Willow Flycatcher, Dusky Flycatcher, Western Wood-Pewee, Swainson’s Thrush, MacGillivray’s Warbler, Yellow Warbler, and Black-headed Grosbeak, while moderate to very heavy flights occurred in the latter two thirds of the two-week period in the East, first in the Plains and then farther to the coasts, featuring Alder Flycatcher, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Philadelphia Vireo, Bay-breasted Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Canada Warbler, and Wilson’s Warbler.


BirdCast Break and Global Big Day

Team BirdCast is taking a break from forecasting this week to focus on the Global Big Day on May 13. We’ll be back next week!


Regional Migration Forecast: 5-12 May 2017

Favorable migration conditions early in the period bring light moderate flights to many areas of the West away from the Pacific Coast that will feature Dusky Flycatcher, Cedar Waxwing, Yellow-breasted Chat, Bullock’s Oriole, Chipping Sparrow, while the East will see locally moderate to very heavy flights featuring Short-billed Dowitcher, Black Tern, Red-headed Woodpecker, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Eastern Kingbird, Swainson’s Thrush, Canada Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, and Orchard Oriole in mostly marginal migration conditions that in many areas will hinder or inhibit migration. The second half of the period will see the best chance for more trans-Gulf migration as well as another opportunity for fallouts and concentrations with a passing frontal boundary.


Regional Migration Analysis: 28 April – 5 May 2017

Moderate flights occurred in many areas of the West and featured Spotted Sandpiper, Wilson’s Phalarope, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Western Tanager, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Evening Grosbeak, while in the East moderate and heavy flights punctuated by intense low pressure systems featured Mississippi Kite, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Bell’s Vireo, Bay-breasted Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Canada Warbler, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Bobolink, and Dickcissel.


Regional Migration Forecast: World Series of Birding and Atlantic Coast, 4 May evening update

Team BirdCast is looking closely at the current frontal boundary pushing across the southeastern US and pondering what it might mean for those competing in the World Series of Birding 2017, among other birding events presumably scheduled in the coming days.


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